Just Baseball prospect rankings

[btdart20]

h/t @RZNJ for posting it elsewhere.  Moving it to it's own thread.

Baltimore Orioles Top 15 Prospects For 2024 | Just Baseball

1. Holliday - 65+ FV - biggest debate here has been "Does he/Can he bump Gunnar to 3B?"  And Aram says:

 plus runner with plenty of lateral quickness and range, Holliday has a great chance to stick at shortstop. He is already demonstrating smooth actions, good instincts and soft hands to go with a plus arm. Holliday has the goods to blossom into an above average defender or better at short as he continues to improve his footwork and ability to read hops.

 

2. Basallo - 60+ FV - biggest debate is "Does he stick at C?" (unrelated to his bat moving him off).  Sounds like Aram believes in the bat more, but that Basallo can stick at C too:

A plus throwing arm is the leading defensive tool for Basallo who may be a candidate to move from behind the dish. He moves well to continue to get looks at catcher, but his blocking and receiving has a ways to go. His catch and throw skills are strong, gunning down around 33% of attempted base stealers. There’s a chance Basallo can stick at the position and he has shown some improvements already.

With the bat being the leading aspect of Basallo’s game, if he can stick at catcher, he could be a rare commodity as a left-handed power threat at a tough position.

 

 

3. Mayo - 60+ FV - Again... defense...  Jives with what Tony's been saying to some degree.

Mayo moves well for his size and has a plus arm at third base. He has worked hard at his defense, improving his footwork and actions. Once viewed as a candidate to move off of the position, Mayo looks like he can be an average defender there. 

 

55 FV tier

4. Kjerstad

5. Cowser

6. Ortiz - 

Ortiz’s defensive prowess and high floor bat have helped him leapfrog some exciting prospects in the Orioles system. While he is a bit on the older side as a 25-year-old, he is a high probability regular with enough value on both sides of the ball to be an above average big league shortstop if the bat translates.

7. Norby - more bullish on Norby's defense than Tony which really shows in their top 10 2B rankings where Norby is ranked 6th.  Interestingly, right above recently traded/former LAD prospect Michael Busch...  Even if you bump Norby's defense to a 35 like they have on Busch, it still feels like a solid comp.  Does Mr. Market see it that way?  It doesn't seem like it if I'm reading the vibe in the room accurately.

Just Baseball's Top 10 Second Base Prospects for 2024 | Just Baseball

8. EBJ

9. McDermott

10. Beavers

 

50+ FV tier

11. Povich

12. Tavera

 

50 FV tier

13. Horvath

14. Johnson

15. Fabian

 

[Frobby]

Just Baseball did their top 100 back in October, and 7 Orioles were on the list.  The writeups of those 7 on this top 15 list appear to be identical to the earlier ones. 

 

[RZNJ]

57 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just Baseball did their top 100 back in October, and 7 Orioles were on the list.  The writeups of those 7 on this top 15 list appear to be identical to the earlier ones. 

 

Interesting that the order is the same except for Basallo and Mayo.  On the top 100 Mayo is 12 and Basallo is 20 but now he has Basallo as the Orioles #2 and Mayo at #3.   

[LookinUp]

That's 14 guys that I'm very excited about, and doesn't include about 5 more that I'm also very excited about. Such a deep system.

[RZNJ]

2 hours on the Orioles top prospects.   Very informative.

 

 

[Say O!]

On 1/27/2024 at 4:20 AM, RZNJ said:

2 hours on the Orioles top prospects.   Very informative.

 

 

Fantastic listen — thx for posting.

Lots of detail on about 25 guys (they rank 15 and then have another 10 or so as “others to consider”).  Blend of scouting (swing paths, tools grades) and statistical detail on whiff rates, chase percentages, etc. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Fantastic listen — thx for posting.

Lots of detail on about 25 guys (they rank 15 and then have another 10 or so as “others to consider”).  Blend of scouting (swing paths, tools grades) and statistical detail on whiff rates, chase percentages, etc. 

Yeah, I listened to the whole thing.  Really interesting.  Changed my opinion on Beavers a bit to a less positive one but it increased my already positive attitude on McDermott.

[CaptainRedbeard]

The podcast was great and definitely most glowing on McDermott (and to some extent Povich) and down on Beavers.  It was also higher on Kjerstad and lower on Cowser than I expected and they made some convincing arguments for both.

Also made me more excited for EBJ. The top of the charts defense and speed are given, but also hit tool and chase rate are exceptional. The Orioles just need to be able to just barely squeeze a threshold level of juice out of his bat and he’s got the full package of everything else that will make him extremely valuable.

Most interestingly, I came away with my enthusiasm slightly tempered on Basallo. They made the point that he has a ridiculous ability to hit balls out of the zone with authority but overall his approach still needs refining. I’m still extremely high on him, but it sounds like he blasted his way through multiple levels  in a different way than Holliday did, for instance. I thought he could be knocking on the MLB door by the end of 2024, and maybe he still will be, but if he is it will probably have to come with some swing decision improvements (which could definitely happen).

[Frobby]

If you didn’t get enough of Aram Leighton’s views on our system, he also appeared as a guest on Locked On Orioles on Jan. 25.   

[Just Regular]

It'll be interesting to follow how much of Mountcastle there is in Basallo.    I'd imagine Basallo has edges having been handpicked by the current regime and trained by them since adolescence.

Whereas Mountcastle's cheek may have been "you wouldn't be talking to me if I doubled" after helping the pitcher with a chase, Basallo feels like he'll have a better Homers to Doubles ratio.

I know others have mentioned Smash Factor as a more elegant metric than Chase Rate, and guys like Mountcastle-Basallo I think probably do better at that.    A pitch 3 inches outside the zone could often be worth going for; a pitch 30 inches outside the zone....

[Frobby]

Just Baseball put out a podcast discussing the Burnes trade: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-call-up-an-mlb-prospect-podcast/id1604440106?i=1000643971842

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just Baseball put out a podcast discussing the Burnes trade: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-call-up-an-mlb-prospect-podcast/id1604440106?i=1000643971842

Watched.  Aram mentioned that Hall changed/improved his mechanics while trying to regain his velocity in Florida, increasing his extension by 1 foot and lowering his release point by .4 feet.   He seemed to think/theorize that this was behind his improved control in the bullpen.  He kept talking about his last 300 pitches thrown, fawning over his 78% strike percentage on his changeup.   It’s going to be interesting to follow Ortiz and Hall with the Brewers.