Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

I don't understand why Elias would need to "spin" his selection at the time. You don't take a kid 1-1 and give him a record bonus if you don't think he can stick at SS long term. 

As for misjudging him, I think what we saw last season was on par with the reports. He's move well enough (although he does not have elite quickness), has an average arm that might be slightly below average at the big league level right now, but understands the game and is smart defender overall.

I'm not sure I understand the "The development of other players could have changed the plan.". Are you talking about Gunnar showing that he can be a solid average defensive SS? Even if Gunnar has shown that, how does that affect Holliday's ability to play there?

I mean, the Orioles might like a Westburg-3B, Gunnar-SS, Holliday-2B infield alignment best at some point this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean Holliday couldn't play SS. It just means the Orioles may decide that's their best defensive alignment with those three players.

The one thing I try to remember though is that while Gunnar is a solid average defensive SS right now, he very well could be a plus defender at 3B. As he gets older, and if Holliday shows he can be an average defensive SS, that still very well may end up his defensive home.

Gunnar being better at Shortstop and Mayo being able to stick at Third.

If Mayo can stick at Third that puts Westburg into a super utility role.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't understand why Elias would need to "spin" his selection at the time. You don't take a kid 1-1 and give him a record bonus if you don't think he can stick at SS long term. 

As for misjudging him, I think what we saw last season was on par with the reports. He's move well enough (although he does not have elite quickness), has an average arm that might be slightly below average at the big league level right now, but understands the game and is smart defender overall.

I'm not sure I understand the "The development of other players could have changed the plan.". Are you talking about Gunnar showing that he can be a solid average defensive SS? Even if Gunnar has shown that, how does that affect Holliday's ability to play there?

I mean, the Orioles might like a Westburg-3B, Gunnar-SS, Holliday-2B infield alignment best at some point this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean Holliday couldn't play SS. It just means the Orioles may decide that's their best defensive alignment with those three players.

The one thing I try to remember though is that while Gunnar is a solid average defensive SS right now, he very well could be a plus defender at 3B. As he gets older, and if Holliday shows he can be an average defensive SS, that still very well may end up his defensive home.

This is the other thing that gets lost. I get that people value SS the most but if Gunnar is heads and shoulders better than anyone else at third and say he is viewed as better at SS than Holliday but Holliday is still good over there, the combo or Holliday at SS and Gunnar at third is the better move. You can’t just look at one position and say fill in around it. You have to look at what the best alignment is.

I know the Os like versatility and moving guys around but I have to think once these young kids get established and are AS/MvP type guys, I think they will move them around a lot less.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Even if Holliday is or will be a capable defensive SS, he still needs to surpass Gunnar defensively to supplant him there. Given Gunnar’s exceptional arm that’s only going to happen if his range declines, and while he’s a bigger guy he’s a great athlete. It may not happen until he’s in his 30s.

Whoever is the 3rd infielder also will be a big factor. If it’s Westburg, he right now seems about equivalently capable at both 2B and 3B. If it becomes more apparent that his best defensive home is one or the other that could tip the scales. 

If Mayo is the 3B then that really locks Gunnar into SS and Holliday into 2B. 

I think it’s likely that Westburg will be the primary infielder with Gunnar and Holliday, but the Orioles like to move guys around and probably will give Mayo some opportunities at 3B.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, CaptainRedbeard said:

Even if Holliday is or will be a capable defensive SS, he still needs to surpass Gunnar defensively to supplant him there. Given Gunnar’s exceptional arm that’s only going to happen if his range declines, and while he’s a bigger guy he’s a great athlete. It may not happen until he’s in his 30s.

Whoever is the 3rd infielder also will be a big factor. If it’s Westburg, he right now seems about equivalently capable at both 2B and 3B. If it becomes more apparent that his best defensive home is one or the other that could tip the scales. 

If Mayo is the 3B then that really locks Gunnar into SS and Holliday into 2B. 

I think it’s likely that Westburg will be the primary infielder with Gunnar and Holliday, but the Orioles like to move guys around and probably will give Mayo some opportunities at 3B.

Again, he doesn’t have to be better at SS than Gunnar to be the SS.  

[RZNJ]

Gunnar’s DRS and UZR/150 paint him as an elite SS defensively last year.  OAA says he was average.   Confirmation bias leads me to be skeptical of the OAA.  He was not average at SS last year.   He was much better.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, he doesn’t have to be better at SS than Gunnar to be the SS.  

SS is the most important defensive position (except C?) on the field.   I’ll put my best SS there and hope Westburg can be close to what Henderson would be at 3B.  Seems to be what the Orioles are thinking too but maybe they’ll prove you right and me wrong.

[DirtyBird]

As long as Mateo is on the roster this season, I doubt Holliday would play much, if any, SS. It would make much more sense to play the 20 year old at the lower leverage defensive position while he adapts to the league & hitting major league pitching.

[NCRaven]

Mayo will get time in right field this year.  A move would help settle things in the infield and create a path to Gunnar, Jackson, and Jordan having regular positions in the infield no matter how the exact spots shake out.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

As long as Mateo is on the roster this season, I doubt Holliday would play much, if any, SS. It would make much more sense to play the 20 year old at the lower leverage defensive position while he adapts to the league & hitting major league pitching.

Mateo’s role this year is an enigma to me.

On one hand, I think they keep Holliday in the minors to start the year and Mateo plays SS vs lefties. I think that’s defined.

But once Holliday is brought up, will Mateo see the field except that occasional start to give someone a day off or pinch running?  

But if you trade him now, you also don’t leave the team with a real back up SS unless Holliday makes the team out of ST. 

I tend to doubt they are ok with Urias or Westburg as the back up SS. So maybe, you go with the idea that you let things play out in ST??

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is the other thing that gets lost. I get that people value SS the most but if Gunnar is heads and shoulders better than anyone else at third and say he is viewed as better at SS than Holliday but Holliday is still good over there, the combo or Holliday at SS and Gunnar at third is the better move. You can’t just look at one position and say fill in around it. You have to look at what the best alignment is.

I know the Os like versatility and moving guys around but I have to think once these young kids get established and are AS/MvP type guys, I think they will move them around a lot less.

Or if Holliday is head and shoulders above anyone else at 2B, maybe he sticks there with Gunnar SS and Mayo/Westburg 3B. I think if they determine Holliday can play high level SS, then he probably sticks there. Beyond that, they should not be giving preferential treatment to players just based on where they were drafted. We have enough redundancy in the organization by design that Holliday does not have to be locked in to a predetermined path. If he turns out to be more comfortable at 2B, that is a great outcome for a player drafted out of high school.

The arm strength is the biggest concern for me. That is very difficult to change. 

[DirtyBird]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo’s role this year is an enigma to me.

Mateo's role this year makes more sense than any role for Urias

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Mateo's role this year makes more sense than any role for Urias

Well maybe…I think that depends on a lot of things.  Urias can play all 4 IF positions if needs be..Mateo can’t.

Urias can hit a little and will take a walk. Mateo not so much.

But Mateo has speed that Urias doesn’t have.

Roster construction means a lot here. I lean towards preferring Urias because he has a better bat and more versatility. 
 

Im good with both of them on the team to start….but with the idea you don’t care about trading/DFA’ing one of them once Holliday is up.

[spleen1015]

Neither one of them belong on this team. Replace them with Mayo and Holliday coming out of ST so that they can get the "I'm going to suck a little my first 100-150 AB in the majors" out of the way as early as possible. They'll still be better than Mateo at least.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Or if Holliday is head and shoulders above anyone else at 2B, maybe he sticks there with Gunnar SS and Mayo/Westburg 3B. I think if they determine Holliday can play high level SS, then he probably sticks there. Beyond that, they should not be giving preferential treatment to players just based on where they were drafted. We have enough redundancy in the organization by design that Holliday does not have to be locked in to a predetermined path. If he turns out to be more comfortable at 2B, that is a great outcome for a player drafted out of high school.

The arm strength is the biggest concern for me. That is very difficult to change. 

The arm strength isn’t difficult to change. Do a google search and you can find tons of articles on how to improve upon that.

And if Holliday is heads and shoulders above Westburg at second, that would also need to mean that Westburg can handle third very well because you are then moving Gunnar off of there.  Again, all the pieces need to fit together for the best alignment. 
 

And this isn’t even talking about Mayo.  I believe Mayo can stay at third. What I’m not sure about is if Mayo at third is better than any of the other alignments that would then happen if you do that. It’s not a shot at Mayo, as it’s more of a feather in the cap of the other guys.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, he doesn’t have to be better at SS than Gunnar to be the SS.  

Sure, but only if the third infielder is only a 2B. Hypothetically, if Westburg were strictly 2B-only, then Gunnar could be a superior SS to Holliday and it still makes sense to be Gunnar 3B and Holliday SS because that on net is better than putting Holliday at 3B. 

However, Westburg is not 2B-only. And Mayo is 3B-only.  I see these potential outcomes:

1. Gunnar better than Holliday at SS, Westburg equivalent at 2B/3B: Gunnar SS, Westburg 3B, Holliday 2B

2. Holliday better than Gunnar at SS, Westburg equivalent at 2B/3B: Holliday SS, Gunnar 3B, Westburg 2B

3. Westburg arm too limiting at 3B, needs to play 2B: Holliday SS, Gunnar 3B, Westburg 2B

4. Mayo primary 3B and Westburg more UTIL (or traded): Gunnar SS, Mayo 3B, Holliday 2B. 

Right now it seems pretty clear we’re in universe (1), I don’t think anybody thinks Holliday is a better SS than Gunnar right now. And because (3) and (4) are pretty remote possibilities, in practice the only way Holliday is going to be the SS is if he’s actually a better SS than Gunnar. That could definitely happen eventually but it doesn’t seem like we’re there yet.