Is Austin Hays Just an OF Version of Jorge Mateo?

[wildbillhiccup]

Note - This post is not intended to be an endorsement for giving Mateo more playing time, but rather a re-evaluation (for us all) of what Hays' role should be on the 2024 team.  

The other thread about Hays and Cowser got me thinking. Is Austin Hays really anything more than a slightly more reliable OF version of Jorge Mateo? Both he and Mateo are entering their age 29 seasons and have averaged 2.45 WAR  (Hays) and 2.21 WAR (Mateo) over the last two seasons. And they both have hight level prospects, who performed well in MiLB last season, knocking on their doors. So why are we so quick to pencil in Hays as the everday LF whereas most of us (myself included) think Mateo is no more than a bench bat? Is the situation for both of them really that different? I realize that Cowser struggled at the MLB level last season, but 61 ABs seems like an unbelievably small sample size to dismiss a top prospect who was great in AAA last season and an OBP machine, which is an area in which this team is lacking. And it's not like our young IF replacements for Mateo are that much more proven at the MLB level. Westburg was ok last season, but he didn't exactly light the world on fire and Holliday, assuming he makes the OD roster, hasn't played a single MLB game. So why aren't we collectively pushing for Cowser to get a longer look from the jump this season when the offensive bar for him to be better than Hays is so low (see below)? Is it just recency bias? Are we placing too much emphasis on the need for veteran leadership in the lineup?

Austin Hays' Average Stats Over The Last Two Seasons

• 528 AB
• .263 AVG
• 16 HRs
• 64 RBI
• 71 RBI
• 3 SBs
• 71 R
• 315 OBP
• 429 OPS

[BRobinsonfan]

No.   The last two years... and for their respective careers.  

Edited February 5 by BRobinsonfan

[sportsfan8703]

10 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Note - This post is not intended to be an endorsement for giving Mateo more playing time, but rather a re-evaluation (for us all) of what Hays' role should be on the 2024 team.  

The other thread about Hays and Cowser got me thinking. Is Austin Hays really anything more than a slightly more reliable OF version of Jorge Mateo? Both he and Mateo are entering their age 29 seasons and have averaged 2.45 WAR  (Hays) and 2.21 WAR (Mateo) over the last two seasons. And they both have hight level prospects, who performed well in MiLB last season, knocking on their doors. So why are we so quick to pencil in Hays as the everday LF whereas most of us (myself included) think Mateo is no more than a bench bat? Is the situation for both of them really that different? I realize that Cowser struggled at the MLB level last season, but 61 ABs seems like an unbelievably small sample size to dismiss a top prospect who was great in AAA last season and an OBP machine, which is an area in which this team is lacking. And it's not like our young IF replacements for Mateo are that much more proven at the MLB level. Westburg was ok last season, but he didn't exactly light the world on fire and Holliday, assuming he makes the OD roster, hasn't played a single MLB game. So why aren't we collectively pushing for Cowser to get a longer look from the jump this season when the offensive bar for him to be better than Hays is so low (see below)? Is it just recency bias? Are we placing too much emphasis on the need for veteran leadership in the lineup?

Austin Hays' Average Stats Over The Last Two Seasons

• 528 AB
• .263 AVG
• 16 HRs
• 64 RBI
• 71 RBI
• 3 SBs
• 71 R
• 315 OBP
• 429 OPS

Wall

[forphase1]

Hays is not great, and I'm fine when/if the team moves on from him.  But a .751 OPS and .633 OPS, as shown above, are NOT the same.  Mateo is terrible and shouldn't, IMO, even be on the roster.

[Spy Fox]

If Jorge could maintain a .315 OBP I think we'd  be trading him for a haul instead of stashing him as a pinch runner / defensive replacement. 

[wildbillhiccup]

6 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

No.   

Does it not seem a bit silly to compare their career numbers when one player has 1,793 ABs and the other has 1,032 ABs?

[TopGunnar]

What? What compelled you to make this a post? Austin Hays is a very solid player. Inconsistent. But solid. Jorge Mateo will go 3 months without barreling a pitch. lol. 

[wildbillhiccup]

11 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

No.   The last two years... and for their respective careers.  

 

Ok, so we're looking at the last two years now. In which Hays has posted a slightly higher WAR, but needed 265 more ABs to do it. That's nearly an extra 1/2 season of ABs. So I'll ask again, what is thee justification for keeping Hays in the lineup and not giving Cowser a longer look? 

[Spy Fox]

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Does it not seem a bit silly to compare their career numbers when one player has 1,793 ABs and the other has 1,032 ABs?

Mateo is a year older. The main reason Hays has so many more ABs is because he is better.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Does it not seem a bit silly to compare their career numbers when one player has 1,793 ABs and the other has 1,032 ABs?

I’d say no, when they’re the same age.  Mateo has fewer at bats because he hasn’t hit, so teams won’t give him at bats.  

Anyway, Hays’ offensive numbers are decent for a LF.  He has a career OPS+ of 107 and the last two years were 105 and 114.   Mateo’s were awful, 84 and 70.  Even considering the positions they play, those aren’t comparable at all.  
 

[wildbillhiccup]

4 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

What? What compelled you to make this a post? Austin Hays is a very solid player. Inconsistent. But solid. Jorge Mateo will go 3 months without barreling a pitch. lol. 

I specifically said a "slightly more consistent OF version" of Mateo in my initial post. There's no doubt that Mateo is a more streaky and a less consistent player, but I'm not sure that "solid" is the word I would use to describe Hays' numbers. It would be different if he stole more bases and/or had a better OBP, but he doesn't excel in either of those categories. So you're basically getting a very hollow 16 HRs out of position where I think the bar should be considerably higher. 

[wildbillhiccup]

6 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Mateo is a year older. The main reason Hays has so many more ABs is because he is better.

I just Googled their ages (again) and they're both 28 (both were born in 1995). And you'll get no argument from me that Hays hasn't been more consistent. At least for the the last three years. 

[jabba72]

I dont know what kind of trade value Hays has but Cowser is coming for his job that is for sure. Its going to be an interesting storyline for the season, the OF position battle. Kjerstad in right and Cowser in left, trying to unseat veterans.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Ok, so we're looking at the last two years now. In which Hays has posted a slightly higher WAR, but needed 265 more ABs to do it. That's nearly an extra 1/2 season of ABs. So I'll ask again, what is thee justification for keeping Hays in the lineup and not giving Cowser a longer look? 

You need to look at the trend here.  Almost all of Mateo’s WAR came from 2022.  He played himself out of a job in 2023.  He actually had negative WAR in the five months after the first month of the season, and that’s why he lost his job.  Hays was better than Mateo over the two year period, and slightly better in year two than year one. 

[spleen1015]

ROFL. No.

Mateo is a scrub. Hays isn't.