The worm has turned...

[rp0806]

My problem with the negative attitude towards the team is that, while it's justified in the context of the last 8 years, there's a certain laziness in the approach. Saying "well, the team has sucked in the past and so it will suck in the future" is not a coherent analysis. I think the Orioles still have a long way to go, but this is a very different team from those previous ones. Most importantly, the farm system is light years better than it was even two years ago. Our system has gone from one of the bottom 5 to league average. That's very significant.

[brachd]

Most importantly, the farm system is light years better than it was even two years ago. Our system has gone from one of the bottom 5 to league average. That's very significant.

Yes that is very significant to the O's future but not to the present nor this discussion. Our minor league system has been upgraded dramatically - no argument here. But it's got most of its talent at the lower levels. Aside from Markakis, none are major league ready. Thus, the contribution of the "minor league system" probably won't be much of a help this year in improving our major league team from last.

[AlBumbry]

Ummmm, did you watch the same "end of last season" that I watched?? 'Cause I hate to break it to ya' -- it wasn't pretty.

July            8  18      98     135   0.308August         11  17     104     154   0.393September      10  18     124     144   0.357October         2   0      10       5   1.000

Source

Witchy

I have to think that not many teams had a better regular season October than we did . . .

[rp0806]

Yes that is very significant to the O's future but not to the present nor this discussion. Our minor league system has been upgraded dramatically - no argument here. But it's got most of its talent at the lower levels. Aside from Markakis, none are major league ready. Thus, the contribution of the "minor league system" probably won't be much of a help this year in improving our major league team from last.

True, but it's relevant to how optimistic we can or should be. I'm not expecting great things this year -- probably 85 or so wins -- and I'm definitely glad the FO didn't trade any prospects in an effort to contend this year. But I think there's plenty of reason to be optimistic.

[PaulFolk]

I have to think that not many teams had a better regular season October than we did . . .

Who says the O's can't play in October? Last year proved we can! :002_sbiggrin:

[hoosiers]

This negativity is surprising me as well.

It's not worth getting in a pissing contest over every move, but I believe the organization has made great strides to improve the overall talent on the 25 and 40 man roster, improve team chemistry, some of our best minor league talent is now a year or less away, no bad contracts, etc.

Hey, we all want two more offensive bats and an ace added to our current rotation, but I am really surprised that people are so quick to say "we're not competitive now and don't count your minor league chix before they hatch" do not see that the stars are beginning to align and that the ducks are getting in a row.

[Frobby]

Yes that is very significant to the O's future but not to the present nor this discussion. Our minor league system has been upgraded dramatically - no argument here. But it's got most of its talent at the lower levels. Aside from Markakis, none are major league ready. Thus, the contribution of the "minor league system" probably won't be much of a help this year in improving our major league team from last.

I think we will see Markakis, Majewski, Penn and Loewen all get called up at different points this year, and I think all four will be on the team for all of 2007. I'd agree that these guys (except maybe Markakis) are not major league ready as of Opening Day, but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't make significant contributions this year. Don't forget that Matos made a pretty good contribution in 2003 after a late May call-up, as did Daniel Cabrera in 2004. A lot can happen in a month or two.

I see a very strong parallel between Loewen and Cabrera. Let's remember that Cabrera pitched a low-A Delmarva in 2003, and he had a very poor first half of the season that year. He came on strong in the second half, got jumped to Bowie the following spring, dominated there over about 35 innings, and found himself in the major league to stay. Nobody would have said he was major league ready as of Opening Day 2004. Admittedly, he was rushed a bit, and we can afford to go a little slower with Loewen with the rotation we now have plus Penn probably starting at AAA. But on the other hand, Loewen is ahead of where Cabrera was going into the 2004 season, having pitched in high A, the AFL, and now getting his experience in the WBC.

I don't want to overlook Penn, either. I think another half-year at AAA will be good for him, but I would be very comfortable if the O's need to call him up at some point.

[utvolzac]

Every team has needs. We replaced Ponson with Benson and to me thats a big improvement. I do believe Patterson will be a good move as well.

And how come we always forget about Mazzone? And Duquette. This team is better than its been in 8 years in so many ways, in my opinion

I agree with you. Mazzone is a huge pick up. And this is definitely a better team than the last 8 years. I just felt that if we would have actually spent some money this off-season, we could be closer to being a contender w/o having to lose prospects.

[Sports Guy]

The biggest problem i have with this team is that this team was built to be a 500 team.

Now, i am excited about this team and the potential of some of the guys but at the end of the day, we are still likely a 4th place team. Knowing that that is basically how they were constructed is not a great thing in and of itself.

But when you take the big picture, we are headed in the right direction and have a chance to do some really good things.

But, as always, there are 2 concerns:

1) Minor leaguers...Do they develop and stay healthy?

2) Does PA open the checkbook next offseason and give us what we need to contend?

#1 will take care of itself because you just don't know but i like our chances.

#2 is the big mystery.

[rp0806]

BTW, there's a lot of talk about how we can't compete in the AL East...I don't think we'll contend this year unless a lot of things go right, but I don't think the Red Sox, Yankees, and BJs are all that imposing at this point. The Red Sox probably have a good farm system and a good ML team, but they also have a lot of flaws. Foulke, Loretta, Lowell, Wells, and Clement are all question marks. Ramirez is still great but declining (and still a horrible OF). Ditto for Varitek. I think the Red Sox will win 92-94 games. I don't see them as a juggernaut.

The Yankees will probably have a great offense -- maybe over 900 runs scored -- but their defense is still pretty bad (although Damon replacing Williams will help a lot) and their rotation is a huge question mark. Johnson is great, but he's, what, 42? Who knows if he can continue to produce. Plus, the Yankees won the division b/c they got huge and totally unexpected contributions from Chacon and Small. That's unlikely to happen again. As with the Red Sox, I think the Yankees will win 92-94 games. I don't think they're a great team.

The BJs are the hardest to predict, but despite all the good press they've received for Ryan, Burnett, Overbay, etc., I don't think they're anything special, esp. the offense. I see them winning 87-88 games.

The Devil Rays have a lot of young talent, but their pitching is still awful.

All in all, I think the Orioles will still finish in 4th with about 85 wins, but I don't think there's nearly as much distance between them and the top teams as most of us think.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, there's a lot of talk about how we can't compete in the AL East...I don't think we'll contend this year unless a lot of things go right, but I don't think the Red Sox, Yankees, and BJs are all that imposing at this point. The Red Sox probably have a good farm system and a good ML team, but they also have a lot of flaws. Foulke, Loretta, Lowell, Wells, and Clement are all question marks. Ramirez is still great but declining (and still a horrible OF). Ditto for Varitek. I think the Red Sox will win 92-94 games. I don't see them as a juggernaut.

The Yankees will probably have a great offense -- maybe over 900 runs scored -- but their defense is still pretty bad (although Damon replacing Williams will help a lot) and their rotation is a huge question mark. Johnson is great, but he's, what, 42? Who knows if he can continue to produce. Plus, the Yankees won the division b/c they got huge and totally unexpected contributions from Chacon and Small. That's unlikely to happen again. As with the Red Sox, I think the Yankees will win 92-94 games. I don't think they're a great team.

The BJs are the hardest to predict, but despite all the good press they've received for Ryan, Burnett, Overbay, etc., I don't think they're anything special, esp. the offense. I see them winning 87-88 games.

The Devil Rays have a lot of young talent, but their pitching is still awful.

All in all, I think the Orioles will still finish in 4th with about 85 wins, but I don't think there's nearly as much distance between them and the top teams as most of us think.

If Beckett and Schilling can give the Red Sox at least 55 starts, the Red Sox will win 90 games, easily.

The Yankees can sleep to 88-90 wins.

The BJ's are up in the air. I can see them winning 80-90 games but i say we finish 3-5 games behind them.

YEs, the Sox and Yanks are old but still, they are extremely talented players and as we all know, they can always go out and get what they need.

[rp0806]

The biggest problem i have with this team is that this team was built to be a 500 team.

That's true, but I think it's better than the alternative -- i.e., trading away a bunch of prospects or signing Konerko to an albatross contract in a misguided attempt to contend this year. I'm really glad that they're built to be .500 (or slightly better) this year and contend in the future than.

[Sports Guy]

The biggest problem i have with this team is that this team was built to be a 500 team.

That's true, but I think it's better than the alternative -- i.e., trading away a bunch of prospects or signing Konerko to an albatross contract in a misguided attempt to contend this year. I'm really glad that they're built to be .500 (or slightly better) this year and contend in the future than.

1) There were plenty of guys we could have acquired this year without giving up a ton of prospects.

2) The other alternative is the first true rebuilding process we have had in forever or, the best option, was to reload and rebuild at the same time(example: trade for Glaus, trade Mora)

[rp0806]

If Beckett and Schilling can give the Red Sox at least 55 starts, the Red Sox will win 90 games, easily.

The Yankees can sleep to 88-90 wins.

The BJ's are up in the air. I can see them winning 80-90 games but i say we finish 3-5 games behind them.

YEs, the Sox and Yanks are old but still, they are extremely talented players and as we all know, they can always go out and get what they need.

I agree with all of that. As I said, I think the Red Sox and Yankees will both win over 90 games. But I don't think either will be great in 2006, and neither is really set for the future (although the Red Sox are in decent shape). Even the Yankees have a spending limit (e.g., not signing Beltran), and in a couple of years they're going to be burdened by some enormous contracts -- Jeter, ARod, Giambi.

[Sports Guy]

If Beckett and Schilling can give the Red Sox at least 55 starts, the Red Sox will win 90 games, easily.

The Yankees can sleep to 88-90 wins.

The BJ's are up in the air. I can see them winning 80-90 games but i say we finish 3-5 games behind them.

YEs, the Sox and Yanks are old but still, they are extremely talented players and as we all know, they can always go out and get what they need.

I agree with all of that. As I said, I think the Red Sox and Yankees will both win over 90 games. But I don't think either will be great in 2006, and neither is really set for the future (although the Red Sox are in decent shape). Even the Yankees have a spending limit (e.g., not signing Beltran), and in a couple of years they're going to be burdened by some enormous contracts -- Jeter, ARod, Giambi.

Yea, the Red Sox are pretty set for the future(if they get Beckett signed long term and Pap and Lester develop into what their potential is) and with Big Stein's checkbook, the Yanks are always set for the future, although their system is poor outside of Hughes.