Jackson Holliday 2024

[baltfan]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

I agree a lot of what you are saying here. 

I've been talking about the Orioles hitting development and every time I do, I get shouted down by the people who point towards Adley, Henderson, Westburg and Cowser to a lesser extent. To me, these guys are more about good drafting than amazing development. 

Saying that, I've seen a change in the Orioles hitting philosophy from a "make good swing decisions" approach to a "upper cut, do damage approach" and this is a apparent throughout the minor league where the Orioles hitting prospects have not exactly torn up the minors and of course with this major league team.

When Elias took over, they stressed only swinging at pitches you can put a good swing on and I saw guys like Adley, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Mayo and Holliday drive the ball to all fields. This season, it just seems like everyone is guess hitting. I've seen more awful swings this season than I can remember and it just seems like they are hunting certain pitches and swinging from their heels, regardless of the situation.

I have zero issues with doing that early in counts, but the approach needs to change with the situation. In other words, batting in a 0-0 game in the 2nd inning may have a different approach then batting in a 0-0 game with runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out in the 7th inning. I don't see much change. I see guys with some huge upper cut swings. Heck, even Gunnar has been gotten beat with up and in heat because of his sometimes upper cut swing. Gunnar though flattens out his swing and will take what he's given.

Personally, I thin they need to get rid of the entire hitting philosophy and get back to a more balanced approach. 

We thought we were going to get guys who worked counts, fouled balls off, and just put up professional at bats, instead the Orioles have turned into swing from the heal mashers who K or hit the ball hard. I don't know what study told the Orioles to change, but somebody needs to get more data points.

 

 

I tend to agree with this and have also always said that the emphasis in the minors could be resulting in giving us false impressions of how good our prospects are.  No one is saying that pitch selection isn't important, but you can afford in the minors to spit on pitches that you are going to have to hit in the majors.  In the minors, lack of command will result in greater results for being selective.  In the majors, guys have enough command to throw what you think are bad pitches in the zone more often.  Our guys get used to not swinging at certain strikes in the minors because they can't do "damage."  There is a good possibility that we are having players narrow the strike zone too much in the minors.  When they get to the majors, they then don't swing at pitches they have to swing at because ML pitchers can consistently throw pitches in that area.  The players then have to unlearn not swinging at such pitches, and also learn how to hit those pitches.  We are seeing this with Gunnar and pitches on the outside part of the zone.  I also think Cowser's offspeed issues are likely related to his approach to just not swing at them as often in the minors.  

[gamiliel]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

He’s -3 Rtot and -2 Rdrs, and I humbly submit that anyone who believes OAA in this instance isn’t paying very careful attention when watching the games.   

But fine, if you want to hand a job to a 21-year old kid who has had a .530 OPS in 173 PA this year and isn’t a very good fielder, you go right ahead.  In my world, he has to earn it.  He has to show he’s ready to play better than he did in 2024.   I don’t give a damn that he’s been the no. 1 prospect and has a lot of talent.  
 

Very well said!

[turtlebowl]

26 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

I agree a lot of what you are saying here. 

I've been talking about the Orioles hitting development and every time I do, I get shouted down by the people who point towards Adley, Henderson, Westburg and Cowser to a lesser extent. To me, these guys are more about good drafting than amazing development. 

Saying that, I've seen a change in the Orioles hitting philosophy from a "make good swing decisions" approach to a "upper cut, do damage approach" and this is a apparent throughout the minor league where the Orioles hitting prospects have not exactly torn up the minors and of course with this major league team.

When Elias took over, they stressed only swinging at pitches you can put a good swing on and I saw guys like Adley, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Mayo and Holliday drive the ball to all fields. This season, it just seems like everyone is guess hitting. I've seen more awful swings this season than I can remember and it just seems like they are hunting certain pitches and swinging from their heels, regardless of the situation.

I have zero issues with doing that early in counts, but the approach needs to change with the situation. In other words, batting in a 0-0 game in the 2nd inning may have a different approach then batting in a 0-0 game with runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out in the 7th inning. I don't see much change. I see guys with some huge upper cut swings. Heck, even Gunnar has been gotten beat with up and in heat because of his sometimes upper cut swing. Gunnar though flattens out his swing and will take what he's given.

Personally, I thin they need to get rid of the entire hitting philosophy and get back to a more balanced approach. 

We thought we were going to get guys who worked counts, fouled balls off, and just put up professional at bats, instead the Orioles have turned into swing from the heal mashers who K or hit the ball hard. I don't know what study told the Orioles to change, but somebody needs to get more data points.

 

 

This may be farfetched but I had a daughter that played collegiate softball so I followed it closely and the game has completely changed in the higher D1 levels.  The theory is that the pitchers are so dominate at that level now so it is really difficult to string multiple hits together. So, there are 2 ways you can truly affect the game, one is to have power or the other is game changing speed. 

I wonder if our front office is looking at the way baseball is changing with the way pitching staffs are handled.  Starters don't work out of jams, multiple bullpen arms with high velocity or specialty pitches that are designed to hold down the offense are now utilized more than ever.  Overall, it is changing the game as team averages continue to go down almost yearly now. Maybe the thought is to look for guys with high exit speeds and have them take daddy hacks 4 times a game with the hope you get a couple bombs with runners on to produce the runs. The other route is to have guys that can turn a single into a double by stealing which means 2 hits equal a run instead of needing 3 which has become more difficult over times due to the pitching management.

As far as the speed thing goes to me the Aberdeen roster was full of guys that are fast and focusing on stealing bases? 

In softball athletes that are exceptional hitters but don't have above average power or speed aren't really getting recruited at top 20 schools.  Maybe the front office sees a similar trend in baseball so that is why their approach of development is changing.

[Roy Firestone]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

That error last night was extraordinarily frustrating.   If you’re not hitting, at least make the routine plays with the glove.  

Can we go into 2025 assuming that Holliday is the starting 2B from day one?   To me, we have to be in a position where he’s competing for playing time, not having it handed to him.  He hasn’t earned a presumptive starting spot, despite plenty of opportunity.   He needs to work hard over the winter to improve all aspects of his game.  And then he needs to prove in the spring that he deserves a spot on the roster.   Hopefully he does that, but I’m assuming nothing at this point.  
 

I really think Holliday's error in the 10th cost us the game. If he makes the routine play, its 2 outs and we can walk lefty killing O'Neil.Holliday didnt make the play, and O'Neil beat us.Of course, Akin could've gotten a double play to win it too...but Holliday definitely hurt us bad.

[Warehouse]

I wanted to see how Jackson’s progress compared to our other blue chip prospects. He’s had 181 PAs so I pulled the first 180 to 185 for our other young players from Baseball Savant (I didn’t split games so the number slightly varies).  I also included Heston who only has 112 PAs.

Jackson definitely sticks out in terms of his struggles.

Player	PAs	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	Whiff%
Jackson	181	.233	.256	34.3	35.3
Gunnar	184	.332	.331	29.9	30.3
Adley	182	.315	.320	18.7	18.3
Westburg	183	.310	.322	22.4	26.3
Cowser	183	.315	.337	31.7	31.7
Kjerstad	112	.336	.314	30.4	32.6

[Too Tall]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

You need to get over the whole idea of a .300 hitter.

Do you know how many qualifying hitters are hitting .300 this season? 

  Reveal hidden contents

Seven

Do you know how many they had in 2023?

  Reveal hidden contents

Nine

 

No and I really don't give a rat's ass. And don't you tell me what to get over! Read all of what I said and quit cherry picking. I know you are one of the brightest light bulbs in the room. You don't need to keep proving it at my expense. I still like a 300 hitter.

[Bleed Orange]

I'm hoping that once Westburg and Urias come back, Holliday will go to the bench. He clearly needs more time to work defensively and improve his contact rate at the plate.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

No and I really don't give a rat's ass. And don't you tell me what to get over! Read all of what I said and quit cherry picking. I know you are one of the brightest light bulbs in the room. You don't need to keep proving it at my expense. I still like a 300 hitter.

Guy, you need to get over yourself.  If you think I'm bothering to specifically target you you are very mistaken. 

[Too Tall]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Guy, you need to get over yourself.  If you think I'm bothering to specifically target you you are very mistaken. 

Can, I got over myself a long time ago. And I know you don't just target me. You spread it around quite well. I was just speaking for me and what I said - stands.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I know there are some that scoff at any concerns over Holliday, but what can't be argued with any sanity, is that Holliday's major league time this year and is anything but an unmitigated disaster so far. 

While he does not qualify, his statcast leaderboards shows him only to stand out on speed. Now the good news is his hard hit% and barrel percentage is above average, but his whiff% is so bad, he's basically missing or hitting ball fairly hard. That's what comes with the big upper cut swing he employs. His timing must be perfect because the bat is not in the hitting zone for that long.

How bad has Holliday been at the plate? Well, let's take away that 10-game span when he first game back when he hit 5 home runs. You know, when some posters around here were taking victory laps and virtually high fiving themselves on how smart they are and how Holliday should have never been sent to the minors anyways because he had nothing else to learn.

During that 10 game span, Holliday slashed .278/.350/.722/1.072 with 10 Ks and 3 BB in 40 PAs.

Outside of that initial hot streak upon return, Holliday has gone 19-for-128 (.148) with 7 BB and 50Ks, with 2 doubles and 2 triples and 0 home runs in 140 PAs in his big league time.

But heck, let's be fair and add in his ten game hot streak and let's compare Holliday's first 177 PAs with other notable young players who made their debuts at 20.

Obviously the ones that stands out is Jackson Chourio, the presumptive 2024 NL Rookie of the Year. Chourio had a similar start with the bat, and then went on to slash .310/.368/.541/.909 over his next 323 PAs. I don't have any way of looking back at Chourio's statcast numbers at that 176 PA mark, but his numbers now look much better than Holliday.

Cal had a similar slow start, but with much less whiff (In a much different era) but both Gunnar and Witt Jr. clearly had outclassed Holliday at the start of their careers.

So all is not lost. Holliday has talent and while he's struggled mightily through his initial trial through the majors, Chourio should give Orioles fans hope a turn around might not be that far away. 

 

Just curious for your opinion:

 

I know the organization has changed since then, but do Holliday’s at bats remind you of Chance Sisco?

He was hitting well in the minors, with the majority being opposite field hits and hard contact on breaking balls, but once he got to the MLB, pitchers were able to overpower him due to his uppercut swing? Just curious because he was a “bat first” guy and some of what you mentioned sounded familiar.

[Big Mac]

44 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

No and I really don't give a rat's ass. And don't you tell me what to get over! Read all of what I said and quit cherry picking. I know you are one of the brightest light bulbs in the room. You don't need to keep proving it at my expense. I still like a 300 hitter.

I like players that hit 50 HRs and steal 50 bases that can also pitch at the top of the rotation.  Maybe we should get one of those while we are looking for our .300 hitter too.

[AlbNYfan]

26 minutes ago, Bleed Orange said:

I'm hoping that once Westburg and Urias come back, Holliday will go to the bench. He clearly needs more time to work defensively and improve his contact rate at the plate.

Holliday...I really don't get it. 1)  Generally agreed upon as the top one or two pick in 2023 by most scouts throughout baseball. As a shortstop. He hardly has an arm for 2nd. 2) The O's bring him up with soo much hoopla. T-shirt on first day?? So, much for him getting adjusted and put in situations to succeed. Keep in mind, the O's had some pretty good, experienced infielders already...Urias, Westburg, Mateo. 3) Go back down to make adjustments, offensively and defensively. This kid has had "professional" coaches from the first time he held a bat and ball. Not many kids had the benefits this kid has had. Send him down to adjust??

My only excuse that I have for him is his youth and coachability. Has he ever struggled before? Can he deal with a microscope on every play and AB he makes? Are the coaches and father on the same page?

This transition has to be driving him emotionally crazy. He is a 20(1) YOUNG adult, sophomore college age. He's had a privileged life (at least financially). There has to be a lot going on in his head.

I hope he can just have fun, enjoy the game and grow into baseball as a "job".

[LookitsPuck]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

He’s -3 Rtot and -2 Rdrs, and I humbly submit that anyone who believes OAA in this instance isn’t paying very careful attention when watching the games.   

But fine, if you want to hand a job to a 21-year old kid who has had a .530 OPS in 173 PA this year and isn’t a very good fielder, you go right ahead.  In my world, he has to earn it.  He has to show he’s ready to play better than he did in 2024.   I don’t give a damn that he’s been the no. 1 prospect and has a lot of talent.  
 

To put things in perspective, for those that have logged at least 20 innings at 2B this year, if we look at his Rtot over the course of 1,200 innings (A BBref metric called Rtot/yr), there are 125 eligible players.

Jackson Holliday is tied at #96 with Amed Rosario and Alika Williams. More well known players with a similar Rtot/year are as follows:

• Nolan Gorman -8
• Gleyber Torres -9
• Jake Cronenworth -12

For a minimum of 200 innings, there are 57 eligible players. Jackson is #47. 

He clearly needs to get better overall. But I do think he's been improving. Does that mean we hand the position over to him in 2025? It'll be interesting to see how he does in spring training. I don't think they need to go out there and get a 2B. You still have Urias, who is a plus defensive 2B. And Westburg, if you are going to overly index on Rtot, is actually worse than Holliday! But Westy is about league average at 3B (this year, better last year). The point is there's enough depth where they don't need to go out an acquire somebody.

Edited Thursday at 20:30 by LookitsPuck

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Just curious for your opinion:

 

I know the organization has changed since then, but do Holliday’s at bats remind you of Chance Sisco?

He was hitting well in the minors, with the majority being opposite field hits and hard contact on breaking balls, but once he got to the MLB, pitchers were able to overpower him due to his uppercut swing? Just curious because he was a “bat first” guy and some of what you mentioned sounded familiar.

I think Holliday hit the ball more consistently harder than Sisco and he clearly is a much better runner. I think long term Holliday will be a better defender at 2B or maybe in the outfield where he'll be able to use his speed to his advantage.

Holliday already has more pop than Sisco ever had.

[kidrock]

I wish I had any valid thoughts on what to do here.  I've got no proof or anything.  

If it were up to me, I would send him down.  Just doesn't seem ready to me.  I get needing to transition and get work in at the big league level, but I worry about having too much failure at this level.  I think he needs to take what he has learned and apply it at AAA.  Do it for a while and get better.

Do I think this is the best path, I have no idea.