First 30 game win/lose prediction after todays moves and moves after?

[oriolediehard]

20 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Is this the one that gets you to 21-9 because we subtracted Wong, McKenna and Nevin from the 13-17 team?

Spoiler Alert - the bullpen seems to be a person short based on the what teams will carry.  Did you leave Perez off intentionally?

Oh I forgot Perez, sorry!  I don't know of which to remove, between Baker, Akin or Baumman, I wouldn't mind removing Mateo.  I heard people complaining about him all last summer, so what's changed?

[oriolediehard]

56 minutes ago, waroriole said:

What a ridiculous comment. Ain’t no player in MLB anything close to an 8 game swing over 30 games. It seems like OH is inundated with Orioles Twitter at times. 

That WAR wasn't known or used in the older days, I don't understand it.  I don't understand the WAR stat or how they formulate inflation, they're both confusing to me.  I am from the old school of BA, HR, RBI, ERA, IP, W-L, and K's record. What happens when a team wins 5 games in a row by 1-0 and lose 1 game 14-0, and their record is 5-1 where they only scored 5 runs and gave up 14 runs, what is the WAR on that?  What is the replacement player's statistic to compare the stats to?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

That WAR wasn't known or used in the older days, I don't understand it.  I don't understand the WAR stat or how they formulate inflation, they're both confusing to me.  I am from the old school of BA, HR, RBI, ERA, IP, W-L, and K's record. What happens when a team wins 5 games in a row by 1-0 and lose 1 game 14-0, and their record is 5-1 where they only scored 5 runs and gave up 14 runs, what is the WAR on that?  What is the replacement player's statistic to compare the stats to?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Wins_Above_Replacement

It's been around for around 30 years.

[Billy F-Face3]

It's crazy to me to read how some people can think one player, who has never played a PA in MLB, can cause that much of a swing on winning and losing when pretty much the same roster that just won 101 games is returning to run it back, and they have been supplimented with more talent on the roster in players like Burnes, Tate, and Kimbrel. Plus Westburg getting established on the main roster after gaining more experience. Possibly Cowser too.

 

The Orioles will do just fine.

[oriolediehard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Wins_Above_Replacement

It's been around for around 30 years.

This is what it very confusing: WAR attempts to measure a player's value - expressed in wins - over that which would have been contributed by a fictional "replacement-level player" taken from Baseball-Reference.com!

[OldNewGuy]

24-6  Same as Spring Trng record percentage. Unstoppable.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, oriolediehard said:

This is what it very confusing: WAR attempts to measure a player's value - expressed in wins - over that which would have been contributed by a fictional "replacement-level player" taken from Baseball-Reference.com!

What do you find confusing about it?

A "replacement-level player" is a construct they made that is their approximation of what waiver claim or non-prospect from the minors being called up would accomplish.  So basically a player you could add to the roster for close to 0 cost.

Someone like Aaron Hicks last year.  (yes Hicks provided more value than the fiction creation is designed to).  The O's needed a guy that could play CF, Hicks was sitting there not doing anything and they added him.

[oriolediehard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What do you find confusing about it?

A "replacement-level player" is a construct they made that is their approximation of what waiver claim or non-prospect from the minors being called up would accomplish.  So basically a player you could add to the roster for close to 0 cost.

Someone like Aaron Hicks last year.  (yes Hicks provided more value than the fiction creation is designed to).  The O's needed a guy that could play CF, Hicks was sitting there not doing anything and they added him.

The only thing I can understand is it is a team game, and circumstantial.  For example, at a given pitch, the curve ball or slider don't break and the batter pounces on it and hits a 3 run homer to walk it off, what would of happened if the pitch did break and the same hitter would miss it. How can you put an average on that. Some hitters rise up in a clutch situation and same as the pitcher makes a clutch pitch in the situation.  A team can win it all with mediocre stats and only does what's necessary to win and their individual WAR stats would show it was only 0 or 1 WAR, what does WAR really prove???

[DirtyBird]

8 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

The only thing I can understand is it is a team game, and circumstantial. 

Well, this pretty much contradicts the claim that Kjerstad, Holliday and Mayo would make a 9 win difference over 30 games.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

The only thing I can understand is it is a team game, and circumstantial.  For example, at a given pitch, the curve ball or slider don't break and the batter pounces on it and hits a 3 run homer to walk it off, what would of happened if the pitch did break and the same hitter would miss it. How can you put an average on that. Some hitters rise up in a clutch situation and same as the pitcher makes a clutch pitch in the situation.  A team can win it all with mediocre stats and only does what's necessary to win and their individual WAR stats would show it was only 0 or 1 WAR, what does WAR really prove???

Mostly that isn't a repeatable skill.

All of this stuff is looking at the long term grand scheme of things trends.

Yes you can win five games in a row by one run and then lose a game 12-0 and at the end of the week you are 5-1 with a negative run differential, but over the course of history teams that score more runs than they allow tend to win more games.

Yes you can have a Mike Trout and a Shohei Ohtani on the same team and miss the playoffs.  Doesn't mean they aren't guys you'd want on your team.

[BirdCakes22]

14 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I am of the belief, having played on many HS and College professional teams from baseball to hockey to tennis, and now being a professional bowler.....that team camaraderie  and feels sometimes is more important than experience.

 

For example, today's shut down of JH and other prospects screams to me 'playing it safe' rather than doing what is best for the team this year.

Imo  due to these moves, the team is going to struggle out of the gate and get off to a 14 and 13 start through April.  I think the players understand that the best are not making the team. 

 

And they won't like it.

Predictions?

 

 

It's the easiest part of their schedule, so I couldn't disagree more. They won 101 games last year with largely the same roster. Their chemistry is no issue. I hope we go at least 20-10. 

[forphase1]

While I'm as upset as anyone over the roster decisions,  many are also overstating the impact.   Yes,  I think having Holliday and Mayo playing over the Urias/Mateo/Wong group would give us a few more wins over 162 game season.   But the impact in the first 30 games is harder to say due to SSS and the situation.  It's possible, maybe even likely,  that both rookies struggle while they adjust,  thus not helping the team in the first 30, or maybe even contributing to a loss or two.   It's also possible that Mateo repeats his April of last year,  and therefore sets a bar over the first 30 games that neither Holliday or Mayo would be likely to match.   In that case them not being here likely doesn't hurt at all over the first month or so.   Baseball is a funny game and it's hard to predict much over just 30 games.   Over 162 things tend to even/ average out.   

Given equal playing time I think Holliday/Mayo out WAR Urias/Mateo over 162.  But over 30 games anything can happen.

[OnlyOneOriole]

10 hours ago, Pushmonkey said:

10-20 Only then will the Os finally bring up their best players to be on the roster. 

I really doubt that and after the Spring training they had it seems unlikely.  But geez, think of the good feels this team would have it the youngsters who shined all spring training started OD?

 

Really would give the team a sense of "we are going to do this".  

Fans would feel that too.

 

But when you keep players on the OD roster that let's face it.....didn't deserve it?  I think it puts a bad taste in their mouths and a pall to open the season.

 

IMO you 100% keep Stowers and Holiday on the opening day roster.  They shined all spring training and deserved it.  Others did to but they stick out.

 

Bad look for overall team chemistry imo.

Edited March 23 by OnlyOneOriole

[OnlyOneOriole]

4 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

It's crazy to me to read how some people can think one player, who has never played a PA in MLB, can cause that much of a swing on winning and losing when pretty much the same roster that just won 101 games is returning to run it back, and they have been supplimented with more talent on the roster in players like Burnes, Tate, and Kimbrel. Plus Westburg getting established on the main roster after gaining more experience. Possibly Cowser too.

 

The Orioles will do just fine.

Again I don't think it is all about what any one player can do statistically.

 

For example Ohtani or Trout.  I think it has more to do with overall team chemistry and excitement. 

 

Would this team feel better about knowing they have a  potential rookie of the year and perennial All Star on their team OD?  Or Ramon Urias.

 

Mental psyche makes a huge difference in sports.  It is at least half the battle.  And IMO the O's just screwed the pooch with these moves in that regard.  If this was a team that was just expected to be 'ok' this year and maybe get a chance at the playoffs?  OK.  I get this move.

 

But this is a team that is a World Series favorite.  Every win is crucial both in the standings and the teams mental psyche to win it all.

And these moves SCREAM "lets wait another year" to me.

Edited March 23 by OnlyOneOriole

[Moose Milligan]