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sportsfan8703

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
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2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I think it is fair to say he has reversion risk. Look at his K/9 and BB/9 compared to last year. I wouldn't hate it but he wouldn't be my first choice and I definitely wouldn't pay a lot for him. Like, say, as much as we paid for Andrew Miller.

Andrew Miller had more reversion risk when we got him but ok.  It's going to take someone in our 6-10 prospect range, I think.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
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19 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I'd love to hear some justification for that one.

Tanner Scott was one of the best relievers in baseball last year.  He had a shaky April but he’s good again the last two months.

Andrew Miller was mediocre the year before we got him.  He wasn’t established.  30 IP, 25 H, 17 BB.   In 2014 he was very good in the first half and we got him at the deadline.   Scott actually has a longer record of being a high leverage arm than Andrew Miller did when we got him.  Of course, you could have just looked it up.

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Allan Bryant Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Allan Bryant

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2 hours ago, bpilktree said:

Good to win tonight because tomorrow all we will have is Irvin, Tate, Akin, Vespi, and Krook available with Baker as emergency guy.  Irvin better be on or he just gonna have to take one for the team we need 5 or 6 from him no matter what.  

If Irvin pitches poorly tomorrow , it’s possible that he , not Suarez, get moved to the bullpen upon Kremer’s return 

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
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7 hours ago, bpilktree said:

Good to win tonight because tomorrow all we will have is Irvin, Tate, Akin, Vespi, and Krook available with Baker as emergency guy.  Irvin better be on or he just gonna have to take one for the team we need 5 or 6 from him no matter what.  

Yeah, Hyde was managing for the series win last night. Four game sweeps are tough. Cano, Webb, and Perez should be off limits today. We do have an off day on Monday. 

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

Posted
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7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Tanner Scott was one of the best relievers in baseball last year.  He had a shaky April but he’s good again the last two months.

Andrew Miller was mediocre the year before we got him.  He wasn’t established.  30 IP, 25 H, 17 BB.   In 2014 he was very good in the first half and we got him at the deadline.   Scott actually has a longer record of being a high leverage arm than Andrew Miller did when we got him.  Of course, you could have just looked it up.

Scott's walk rate has doubled this year and his K rate is wag down. He's on a good 1.5 year roll but Scott '21-22 was way worse than Miller '12-13. He may have been "high leverage" by role but his performance has been inconsistent year to year throughout his career. Miller was basically good to elite since becoming a reliever and was on a positive trajectory.

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dystopia Hangout Veteran Council

dystopia

Posted
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7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Tanner Scott was one of the best relievers in baseball last year.  He had a shaky April but he’s good again the last two months.

Andrew Miller was mediocre the year before we got him.  He wasn’t established.  30 IP, 25 H, 17 BB.   In 2014 he was very good in the first half and we got him at the deadline.   Scott actually has a longer record of being a high leverage arm than Andrew Miller did when we got him.  Of course, you could have just looked it up.

2.64 ERA with 14.1 K/9. I guess you have a different definition of mediocre than I do.

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

Posted
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15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Scott's walk rate has doubled this year and his K rate is wag down. He's on a good 1.5 year roll but Scott '21-22 was way worse than Miller '12-13. He may have been "high leverage" by role but his performance has been inconsistent year to year throughout his career. Miller was basically good to elite since becoming a reliever and was on a positive trajectory.

Miller had 53 games and 40 IP in 2012.  In 2013 he pitched 37 games and 30 IP.   That’s way under 1 inning appearance.  For someone “good to elite” it’s certainly odd that he was used as more of a specialist.   
 

After saving another game yesterday with a perfect inning with two strikeouts, in his last 30 games,  Scott has thrown 30.1 IP, 16 H, 14 BB, 32 K with a 1.48 ERA.   Over his last 15 games, 16 IP, 7 H, 5 BB, 17 K with a 1.13 ERA.

Scott, post all-star break last year pitched 31 G, 34.2 IP, 23 H, 7 BB, 40 K with a 1.56 ERA.

Scott had a 2.8 fwar last year.  Miller, as a reliever, never had an fwar above .7 until 2014, the year he was traded to the Orioles.  He finished the 2014 season at 2.2 fwar.

 

 

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, dystopia said:

2.64 ERA with 14.1 K/9. I guess you have a different definition of mediocre than I do.

30 IP in 37 games.  .3 fwar.   Better than average.  Never accumulated an fwar higher than .7, as a reliever, until 2014.

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Miller had 53 games and 40 IP in 2012.  In 2013 he pitched 37 games and 30 IP.   That’s way under 1 inning appearance.  For someone “good to elite” it’s certainly odd that he was used as more of a specialist.   
 

After saving another game yesterday with a perfect inning with two strikeouts, in his last 30 games,  Scott has thrown 30.1 IP, 16 H, 14 BB, 32 K with a 1.48 ERA.   Over his last 15 games, 16 IP, 7 H, 5 BB, 17 K with a 1.13 ERA.

Scott, post all-star break last year pitched 31 G, 34.2 IP, 23 H, 7 BB, 40 K with a 1.56 ERA.

Scott had a 2.8 fwar last year.  Miller, as a reliever, never had an fwar above .7 until 2014, the year he was traded to the Orioles.  He finished the 2014 season at 2.2 fwar.

 

 

Fair enough. I still wouldn't say Scott has *more* reversion risk than Miller. He has basically 1 elite year plus 0.5 good vs 2 good years + 0.5 elite. To me the most alarming thing is the drop in K/9 and spike in BB. To me that is a huge red flag that Scott is reverting to the guy he's been most of his career. Based on K/BB and FIP last year looks more like an outlier.

If Povich is this year's Eduardo, that's a hard no for me. Norby would be a no. Bradfield would be real tough. I think I would be OK with a lower top 10 guy for him so we may not be that far apart. 

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