2024 Prospect Power Rankings

[btdart20]

41 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Updated through July 1st.

Really nice to see the pitchers progressing with a solid crew from 5-8.

[Say O!]

On 5/22/2024 at 10:22 AM, Say O! said:

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) provides notes and re-rank of his top50.  Note that he removes players who have already lost or projected to lose eligibility in next week or so (meaning no guys like Cowser on O’s or Langford on TEX).  Link to post (note is behind paywall).

• Holliday #2 and 65 FV tier (along w/Skenes who jumped to #1 overall)
• Mayo #6 and 60 FV tier
• Basallo #16 and 55 FV tier
• Kjerstad #47 and 50 FV tier

Fangraphs (Eric Longenhagen) provides update to his top100.  Unlike Kiley/ESPN, this list does not yet reflect any changes or projected changes to rookie eligibility (ie guys like Langford and Chourio are still in the top100 list).  Link to top100 list and his separate write up post.

• Holliday #1
• Basallo #9
• Mayo #22
• Kjerstad #26
• Povich #92

MLB pipeline (Callis/Mayo) just updated their top100.  Link to article and link to full list.  Mentions that Skenes would be #1 but  this list reflects projected eligibility.  For the Os

Holliday #1

Basallo #12

Mayo #15

Kjerstad #20

 

Edited July 2 by Say O!

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

MLB pipeline (Callis/Mayo) just updated their top100.  Link to article and link to full list.  Mentions that Skenes would be #1 but  this list reflects projected eligibility.  For the Os

Holliday #1

Basallo #12

Mayo #15

Kjerstad #20

 

Thanks for posting. Looks more like just an adjustment to knock off the ineligible players. I check this almost daily because I think it’s the quickiest, user friendly, way to check our top 30. 

In no world should Salas be ahead of Basallo. $5.6 million dollar bonus for Salas. 

[sportsfan8703]

39 Yacqui Rivera - he was the PTBNL in the Scott/Sulser deal along with the comp pick. 

Juan Nunez - he was the 3rd piece in the Jorge Lopez trade with the Twins along with Povich/Cano/4th piece

[Frobby]

Big movers:

Forret 12 -> 8

E. Garica 37 -> 30

M. Rodriguez 34 -> 31

Almeyda 21 -> 26

Cook 29 -> 32

Y. Rivera 32 -> 39

Acevedo 33 -> 40

I'm not sure why the big drop for Rivera.   He had a good June (1.93 ERA) and allowed 1 ER in 3 IP last week, hardly a disaster.   I'm also interested in why Forret has jumped Baumeister.   

 

Edited Wednesday at 04:28 by Frobby

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

In no world should Salas be ahead of Basallo. $5.6 million dollar bonus for Salas. 

I made the case last year that Basallo's finish at A+/AA was better than Salas'.  Especially Eastern/IL vs. PCL adjusted. But I didn't have a strong case vs. the age difference projections other than assuming SDP rushed Salas.  Looks like as strong a theory as any at this point to me.  Not MLBpipeline.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Big movers:

Forret 12 -> 8

E. Garica 37 -> 30

M. Rodriguez 34 -> 31

Almeyda 26 -> 21

Cook 29 -> 32

Y. Rivera 32 -> 39

Acevedo 33 -> 40

I'm not sure why the big drop for Rivera.   He had a good June (1.93 ERA) and allowed 1 ER in 3 IP last week, hardly a disaster.   I'm also interested in why Forret has jumped Baumeister.   

 

Alemyda feel fell from 21 to 26 BTW.

Really like Forrett's improvement on the changeup and the fact that he's hitting 95 in the 5th inning tells me he's holing velocity. He's younger than Baumeister so I'm bumping him for now over him.

I'm not huge fan of Rivera's stuff and the fact that they don't let him exceed 40 pitches is a concern for me. His off-speed and breaking balls are inconsistent and while they've promoted him very quickly, nothing jumps out as me as a major league swing and miss pitch. So we have a guy who the Orioles don't think can start, and who doesn't miss bats at great rates against A-ball hitters. He has hit mid 90s this year, but I still just don't see it. He's worth following though as he's pretty skinny, and that he could lead to another velocity bump. 

 

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Alemyda feel fell from 21 to 26 BTW.

Really like Forrett's improvement on the changeup and the fact that he's hitting 95 in the 5th inning tells me he's holing velocity. He's younger than Baumeister so I'm bumping him for now over him.

I'm not huge fan of Rivera's stuff and the fact that they don't let him exceed 40 pitches is a concern for me. His off-speed and breaking balls are inconsistent and while they've promoted him very quickly, nothing jumps out as me as a major league swing and miss pitch. So we have a guy who the Orioles don't think can start, and who doesn't miss bats at great rates against A-ball hitters. He has hit mid 90s this year, but I still just don't see it. He's worth following though as he's pretty skinny, and that he could lead to another velocity bump. 

 

Almeyda is doing horribly in the FCL.  Braylin Tavera, back off the IL, continues to struggle in low A.  Emilio Sanchez is so so, so far in the DSL.  Maikol Hernandez looks like toast.   Is there a way to make it so no one is the highest bonus Latin signing? Lol

The #2 and #3 guys (Basallo, Arias, Sosa, Liranzo, García, Stiven Martínez, Jordan Sanchez) look like the gems.   Plus Estrada.

Edited July 2 by RZNJ

[Warehouse]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Almeyda is doing horribly in the FCL.  Braylin Tavera, back off the IL, continues to struggle in low A.  Emilio Sanchez is so so, so far in the DSL.  Maikol Hernandez looks like toast.   Is there a way to make it so no one is the highest bonus Latin signing? Lol

The #2 and #3 guys (Basallo, Arias, Sosa, Liranzo, García, Stiven Martínez, Jordan Sanchez) look like the gems.   Plus Estrada.

Basallo received $1.3 million. Hernandez was number 2 in 2021 at $1.2 million.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Basallo received $1.3 million. Hernandez was number 2 in 2021 at $1.2 million.

Yep.  Bad memory.  

[sportsfan8703]

Kjerstad recently just graduated from prospect eligibility so it will be interesting to see @Tony-OH puts directly behind the big 3.  

[sportsfan8703]

If you throw out Povich, we can have this discussion 3-4 starts before his prospect eligibility is over, who is our #4 behind the big 3?

4. McDermott

5. Etzel

Just as like a hot sheet type thing. Etzel is having a better season than the position players of EBJ, Beavers, Horvath, and Fabian. He also plays CF. Not a small dude either. He’s 6’2” 200. 

It’s been a crazy good year for Etzel so far for anyone. Let alone a 10th rd pick. 

Maybe a little too soon on Etzel, but we’ll see if he keeps it up. 

[Tony-OH]

On 7/4/2024 at 5:52 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

If you throw out Povich, we can have this discussion 3-4 starts before his prospect eligibility is over, who is our #4 behind the big 3?

4. McDermott

5. Etzel

Just as like a hot sheet type thing. Etzel is having a better season than the position players of EBJ, Beavers, Horvath, and Fabian. He also plays CF. Not a small dude either. He’s 6’2” 200. 

It’s been a crazy good year for Etzel so far for anyone. Let alone a 10th rd pick. 

Maybe a little too soon on Etzel, but we’ll see if he keeps it up. 

It's a really good question. No one has really claimed that next level spot and Etzel while good, may not offer the upside that you'd want in a #5.

[Tony-OH]

On 3/29/2024 at 8:43 PM, Tony-OH said:

These "power rankings" are a fun way to track prospects throughout the year. They are not "official" prospect rankings that are completed at the end of the year after a full evaluations. To be eligible for the list, a player must play at least one game on an active roster. (Updated as of Jul 1st) 

RK	Name	POS	Prev		Team	INJ
1	Jackson Holliday	SS	1		Nor (AAA)
2	Samuel Basallo	C	2		BOW (AA)
3	Coby Mayo	3B/RF	3		Nor (AAA)
4	Heston Kjerstad	RF/1B	4		Baltimore
5	Cade Povich	LHP	5		Baltimore
6	Chayce McDermott	RHP	6		Nor (AAA)
7	Luis DeLeon	LHP	9		ABN (A+)
8	Michael Forret	RHP	12		ABN (A+)
9	Dylan Beavers	OF	7		BOW (AA)
10	Enrique Bradfield Jr.	CF	8		ABN (A+)
11	Connor Norby	2B	10		Nor (AAA)
12	Jackson Baumeister	RHP	11		ABN (A+)
13	Leandro Arias	SS	13		DEL (A)
14	Joshua Liranzo	3B	14		FCL O's
15	Mac Horvath	2B/3B	15		ABN (A+)
16	Thomas Sosa	OF	16		DEL (A)
17	Matthew Etzel	OF	17		BOW (AA)
18	Seth Johnson	RHP	18		BOW (AA)
19	Trace Bright	RHP	19		BOW (AA)
20	Brandon Young	RHP	20		Nor (AAA)
21	Emilio Sanchez	SS	22		DSL Orange
22	Cameron Weston	RHP	23		BOW (AA)
23	Jud Fabian	OF	24		BOW (AA)
24	Aron Estrada	INF/OF	25		DEL (A)
25	Edgar Portes	RHP	26		ABN (A+)
26	Luis Almeyda	SS	21		FCL O's
27	Braylin Tavera	CF	27		DEL (A)
28	Jordan Sanchez	CF	30		DSL Orange
29	Creed Willems	C	28		ABN (A+)
30	Elvin Garcia	SS	37		DSL Black
31	Miguel Rodriguez	C	34		FCL O's
32	Billy Cook	INF/OF	29		Nor (AAA)
33	Moises Chace	RHP	31		ABN (A+)
34	Elis Cuevas	IF/OF	35		FCL O's
35	José Mejia	2B	36		DSL Black
36	Stiven Martinez	OF	38		DSL Orange
37	Adriander Mejia	C	39		DSL Orange
38	Nestor German	RHP	40		DEL (A)
39	Yaqui Rivera	RHP	32		ABN (A+)
40	Stiven Acevedo	OF	33		DEL (A)
	Bubble Players
	Kade Strowd	RHP			Nor (AAA)
	Maverick Handley	C			Nor (AAA)
	Carlos Tavera	RHP			Nor (AAA)
	Trey McGough	LHP			Nor (AAA)
	Max Wagner	3B			BOW (AA)	7-Day IL
	Frederick Bencosme	2B			BOW (AA)
	Silas Ardoin	C			BOW (AA)
	Dylan Heid	RHP			BOW (AA)
	Levi Stoudt	RHP			BOW (AA)
	Juan Nunez	RHP			ABN (A+)	7-Day IL
	Reed Trimble	OF			ABN (A+)
	Jacob Cravey	RHP			DEL (A)
	Trey Gibson	RHP			DEL (A)
	Jesus Palacios	RHP			FCL O's
	Edwin Amparo	INF			FCL O's
	Félix Amparo	INF			DSL Black
	Jemone Nuel	INF			DSL Black
	Saul Gomez	3B/1B			DSL Orange

Tracking purposes.

[Tony-OH]

Ok, I did it. I moved Mayo to #1 because I believe in the bat so much. Holliday has been hitting well of late so I almost didn't do it, but I just think I'd trade Holliday before Mayo even though I would not trade either.

Basallo still could be better then them both. Really the team has three #1 prospects.

1A, 1B, 1C.

The only issues is the huge dropoff after the top three. No one wants to claim that #4 spot so I left Povich there. Povich should graduate here shortly anyways so hopefully someone will take that step forward and claim that #4 spot that Kjerstad graduate from.