Colton Cowser 2024

[Moose Milligan]

35 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Cowser over the last 15 days:

avg = .152
OBP = .273
SLG = .217
OPS= .490
K = 18

 

Pretty sure it’s a slump and he’ll figure it out. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

35 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Cowser over the last 15 days:

avg = .152
OBP = .273
SLG = .217
OPS= .490
K = 18

 

The strange thing is he is slumping strictly going by the numbers,  but he doesn't seem to be slumping by his swing and how he is hitting the ball.  For example with Holliday when he was up here I felt like there as no way he was going to hit the ball.  With Cowser it is different.  By appearances and swing he seems.....rather good.

 

I am kind of going through the same thing right now.  I average 225 or so in numerous bowling leagues, but the past 3 weeks I am only around 210 even though I feel I am throwing the ball great.

With sports sometimes things just happen with no rhyme or reason. 

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pretty sure it’s a slump and he’ll figure it out. 

It's been pretty atrocious for the past 30 days, really. He's been one of the worst hitters on the team for a month. 

[Moose Milligan]

17 minutes ago, Malike said:

It's been pretty atrocious for the past 30 days, really. He's been one of the worst hitters on the team for a month. 

Willing to let him ride it out.  

[ShoelesJoe]

1 hour ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

The strange thing is he is slumping strictly going by the numbers,  but he doesn't seem to be slumping by his swing and how he is hitting the ball.  For example with Holliday when he was up here I felt like there as no way he was going to hit the ball.  With Cowser it is different.  By appearances and swing he seems.....rather good.

Ya, this feels like just a bad luck streak (in a dancing school) rather than an actual slump. He's having good ABs, and looks confident at the plate. Not really worried about him at all. 

[Moose Milligan]

He also continues to look smooth in the field.  Confident he can handle center pretty well.

[LGOrioles]

55 minutes ago, Malike said:

It's been pretty atrocious for the past 30 days, really. He's been one of the worst hitters on the team for a month. 

In the last 30 days before today, he’s been worth 0.6 WAR (roughly 4 WAR pace). 105 wRC+ even with a very low BABIP (.267) considering his quality of contact. K% is high (33%) but overall that’s far from atrocious. 

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Ya, this feels like just a bad luck streak (in a dancing school) rather than an actual slump. He's having good ABs, and looks confident at the plate. Not really worried about him at all. 

After 27 games and 80 PA, Cowser had a .439 wOBA and a .390 xwOBA.  Now, after 38 games and 116 PA (excluding today), he’s at .372 wOBA and .370 xwOBA.   So, you can estimate that in the last 11 games before today, Cowser has about a .223 wOBA and a .326 xwOBA.  So, (1) he was a little lucky over the first 27 games, (2) his quality of contact was nevertheless very good during that period, (3) he’s been quite unlucky over the last 11 games, (4) his quality of contact has been significantly down over the last 11 games, and (5) though his quality of contact has gone down, it’s still decent (.326 xwOBA would equate to roughly a .730 OPS with “average” luck).   

[sportsfan8703]

He’ll go back to sitting against lefties once Hays comes back. Maybe facing some LHP got his confidence and he developed some bad habits. 

[AdamK]

Looks like more than just bad luck on some breaking balls in the dirt. We all would have preferred he get the ball in the air with the bases loaded in extras this weekend, but it's all part of the maturation process. Love me some Cowser.

[Sports Guy]

12 hours ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

The strange thing is he is slumping strictly going by the numbers,  but he doesn't seem to be slumping by his swing and how he is hitting the ball.  For example with Holliday when he was up here I felt like there as no way he was going to hit the ball.  With Cowser it is different.  By appearances and swing he seems.....rather good.

 

I am kind of going through the same thing right now.  I average 225 or so in numerous bowling leagues, but the past 3 weeks I am only around 210 even though I feel I am throwing the ball great.

With sports sometimes things just happen with no rhyme or reason. 

Yea I agree with this.

He has a lot of swing and miss in his game but I don’t feel he’s really slumping. In the DBacks series, he had a lot of well hit balls that were right at someone or they tracked them down. (Ala the ball the other night Gurriel caught that would have been a homer in a lot of parks)

I don’t feel he’s up there taking bad at bats or anything like that. 
 

He has also seemingly been victim to a lot of bad strike calls against him too.

Edited May 13 by Sports Guy

[Malike]

15 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

In the last 30 days before today, he’s been worth 0.6 WAR (roughly 4 WAR pace). 105 wRC+ even with a very low BABIP (.267) considering his quality of contact. K% is high (33%) but overall that’s far from atrocious. 

He's got a 38 OPS+ in that time with a .564 OPS. His defense is carrying his WAR right now. I'll stand by my statement that his bat is atrocious, right now. Since April 15th his WRC+ is 68, and his K% is 35.4%.

Edited May 13 by Malike

[Gofannon]

I would be more confident that this is a slump if last year hadn't been a rough start, but I do believe he'll snap out of this.  I think the return of Hays will have him out of the lineup a bit.  I've been glad to see him in there so much despite his slump and appreciated his time in center in place of Mullins.  It's good to get a sense of what he brings out in the field as well.

His bases loaded (0 for 8 with 5 strikeouts) and high leverage (1 for 20 with 0 walks/11 strikeouts) are certainly a weak spot so far, but they have to go up.

[LGOrioles]

32 minutes ago, Malike said:

He's got a 38 OPS+ in that time with a .564 OPS. His defense is carrying his WAR right now. I'll stand by my statement that his bat is atrocious, right now. Since April 15th his WRC+ is 68, and his K% is 35.4%.

As of yesterday under Fangraphs last 30 days filter, the stats I quoted were correct. I think his Boston 2 HR just fell off the last 30 days as of today, so now it’s showing a 34.4 K%, .244 BABIP, and 80 wRC+. 

The strikeouts are frustrating, but again his BABIP is still very low and the defensive metrics love him. Even with that slash line he’s still at a near 2 WAR pace in the last 30 days. The last 14 days have been worse (40 wRC+ with a lower 27.5 K%), but overall his wOBA and xwOBA are aligned for the year. Let’s hope he makes some adjustments going forward. 

Edited May 13 by LGOrioles

[Malike]

1 minute ago, LGOrioles said:

As of yesterday under Fangraphs last 30 days filter, the stats I quoted were correct. I think his Boston 2 HR just fell off the last 30 days as of today, so now it’s showing a 34.4 K%, .244 BABIP, and 80 wRC+. 

The strikeouts are frustrating, but again his BABIP is still very low and the defensive metrics love him. Even with that slash line he’s still at a near 2 WAR pace in the last 30 days. The last 14 days have been worse (40 wRC+ with a lower 27.5 K%), but overall his wOBA and xwOBA are aligned for the year. Let’s hope he makes some adjustments going forward. 

Right, I'm not saying he's been a net zero all year, but since April 15th he's been quite bad with the bat, I mean, we all watch the games and see the same thing the numbers show. Hopefully, he adjusts to all of the changeups he's getting fed, because in protecting against them he's just been behind on almost all of the fastballs he sees and flicking them foul.