Colton Cowser 2024

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So this comes down to what it means to be “lost” at the plate.  If you make good swing decisions but aren’t making good contact on hittable pitches, are you “lost?”   I don’t think everyone would agree on the answer.  

Saying he’s lost is an uneducated narrative. 

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Saying he’s lost is an uneducated narrative. 

So what is the educated narrative?

I think he’s off-balance and pressing a bit.  By off-balance, I mean right now he’s having trouble distinguishing between fastballs and changeups, so he’s trying to gear up for one or the other instead of just reacting to what comes.  And he knows he’s slumping and he’s trying a little too hard instead of letting the game come to him. Especially in important situations.   

[LGOrioles]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

And btw, Cowser isn’t an everyday guy, at least not yet. The injury to Hays has forced him into the lineup more than he should be.

His defense has largely been very good, so he’s helping there but hopefully with Hays back, he will start hitting some and Cowser can sit a little more often, as he should be doing right now.

Maybe he develops into a 150+ games guy but I think he’s more of a 130-140 games guy right now.

I would actually argue that he needs to start almost every day going forward to see if he can make adjustments by the time the 2nd half of the season comes around. Going by WAR, he’s currently the best OF on the team and based on his fielding and batted ball quality, he probably has the highest ceiling going forward too. 

This isn’t apples to apples because Gunnar is better than Cowser, but last year through this date, Gunnar had a 30.1 K%, .168 ISO, 98 wRC+, and 0.6 WAR. Cowser is at 31.5 K%, .250 ISO, 136 wRC+, and 1.2 WAR. Gunnar kept striking out at a 31% rate through the end of June, then cut it down by almost 10% the rest of the season. Gunnar also had 60 more AB’s in 2022 than Cowser had in 2023. 

Gunnar had a bunch of looking K’s the first few months of 2023 as well. I don’t know if it occurred in a situation like last night, but he had some very similar AB’s. Cowser does whiff a lot more, so his K rate will likely remain higher, but he also chases less and still hits the ball very hard too. He will obviously get some days off, but he should still be playing almost every day in my opinion.

Edited May 14 by LGOrioles

[interloper]

Just looks like the guy from last year now. Getting some walks, but basically only fouling pitches off or taking them right down the middle. It's frustrating to watch. But it's not like anyone else was doing much better last night, Adley aside. 

But I have to admit in that late-game AB, wondering if they'd pinch hit Hays just to have a contact-oriented hitter at the plate to make sure they got that runner in from 3rd with 1 out. They didn't, and Cowser predictably did not make contact. It would have been a weird PH, certainly, but if it crossed my mind, it probably crossed Hyde's mind. 

Edited May 14 by interloper

[sportsfan8703]

Everyone slumps. It’s not just free throws or 6ft putts. It’s not just you vs the task. There’s another human out there throwing a baseball armed with top class coaching and scouting as well. Gotta make adjustments. 

Edited May 14 by sportsfan8703

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

This reminds me of an early April game around April 2 against the Royals I think, bases loaded, 1 out?, and Cowser got caught looking at a curve from a LHP middle middle.   @Pickles thought he decided not to swing before the pitch was even thrown.   I said he was guessing fastball and was frozen.   Ok, Pickles, what happened last night?

You're being obtuse.  We actually have the same position.

He was guessing a certain pitch and was not going to swing if it was not that pitch.  If you prefer to call that "frozen" as opposed to a conscious decision ok, but it is clearly related to his conscious decision to "guess."

And I think the same thing happened last night.  He was guessing off-speed and was in no position to swing at the fastball.

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So what is the educated narrative?

I think he’s off-balance and pressing a bit.  By off-balance, I mean right now he’s having trouble distinguishing between fastballs and changeups, so he’s trying to gear up for one or the other instead of just reacting to what comes.  And he knows he’s slumping and he’s trying a little too hard instead of letting the game come to him. Especially in important situations.   

That he’s slumping and does look as bad then numbers say.

The level of drama people are bringing into the conversation is absurd.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You're being obtuse.  We actually have the same position.

He was guessing a certain pitch and was not going to swing if it was not that pitch.  If you prefer to call that "frozen" as opposed to a conscious decision ok, but it is clearly related to his conscious decision to "guess."

And I think the same thing happened last night.  He was guessing off-speed and was in no position to swing at the fastball.

Wow!   I deleted that post 30 minutes ago.    Lol

[Pickles]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Wow!   I deleted that post 30 minutes ago.    Lol

I'm at work so I walked away mid-response.  I didn't realize it was for 30 minutes though.

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, interloper said:

Just looks like the guy from last year now. Getting some walks, but basically only fouling pitches off or taking them right down the middle. It's frustrating to watch. But it's not like anyone else was doing much better last night, Adley aside. 

But I have to admit in that late-game AB, wondering if they'd pinch hit Hays just to have a contact-oriented hitter at the plate to make sure they got that runner in from 3rd with 1 out. They didn't, and Cowser predictably did not make contact. It would have been a weird PH, certainly, but if it crossed my mind, it probably crossed Hyde's mind. 

It’s not good but it’s not the guy from last year.  

[Three Run Homer]

You can't sit on a pitch when there are two strikes.  Terrible approach.  

[interloper]

43 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

You can't sit on a pitch when there are two strikes.  Terrible approach.  

Like how are you guessing in that moment? You have to react with 2 strikes, not guess, especially in that specific scenario. Mind-boggling. 

[G54377]

He's going to need to work through it. If we believe he's an everyday player like Gunnar and Adley, we need to allow him to work through it like they did. 

[spleen1015]

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/colton-cowser-gets-fan-section-at-camden-yards

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

I agree that he’s been pretty bad in those high leverage situations. In Fangraphs clutch metric, he’s by far the worst hitter in the league. The difference between him and 2nd place (McNeil) is the same as the difference between McNeil and 55th place.

He has cut down on his K rate the past few weeks and has hit into some bad luck, but it definitely looks like he’s overthinking in some of these higher leverage situations. I’d say his AB’s are pretty good other than that, but they’ve been pretty poor in those more important situations. 

And I think that's why people are looking at Cowser worse than he really is. He just seems to come up in high leverage situations often and has failed at a high rate in these situations.