Adley Rutschman 2024

[jmi1960]

On 8/23/2024 at 9:53 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Or he's more occupied with his smokeshow girlfriend on Instagram and commenting on her every post.  

Priorities, Adley!  No women during the season! 

“Women weaken legs”

Mickey Goldmill. 

[Just Regular]

LAD Will Smith YTD monthly OPS splits - 946, 773, 642, 724, 597.

Star catchers are I guess similar to Aces - they get eroded, but it is better to have them than not have them.

In a case of the unimaginable, are you catching James McCann or Samuel Basallo every day?     Sorry, Blake Hunt..

[turtlebowl]

I mentioned this last week, Adley looks heavy and not in good physical shape.  He is close to 10 years younger than McCann but physically McCann looks to be in so much better condition.  One thing that always irks me is seeing guys with so much money and access to things to help them maintain their bodies, I consider athletes being out of shape a character issue.   Now he could be nursing something that is limiting his workout routine but still that shouldn't be an excuse to be carrying more weight than he should be.

With that said, I do think that Adley struggles a little with an identity crisis as a hitter.  I think he is a little like Markakis, when he stays within himself he is a high average guy with 15 to 20hr power.  Just like Markakis though, he can get himself into funks when he tries to be more than that.  Adley has great bat control when he slows his bat speed down.  When he takes that approach it just looks like he can hit any pitch in the zone and uses the whole field.  When he attacks he tends to miss the barrel way more often.  I actually have a theory that he has hit better this year right handed because of the wall in left field.  Maybe it isn't that tempting to overswing right handed knowing how difficult it is to hit HR's in Camden so he really stays within himself.  

As mentioned we will likely hear more about what the deal is with Adley after the season.  I just don't know how much of it would be excuses that he could have more control over.  I want him to be great but I am more worried now that he will just be good to above average along the lines of Matt Weiters who we always underrated due to all his hype.  

[LookitsPuck]

Interestingly enough, Adley has rebounded in August. He had a miserable July (482 OPS, 132 AVG). In August, he's at 691 and 258. Now, are those *good* numbers? No. But they're respectable. Still a far cry from April, May, and June when he had OPSs of 811, 798, 848. 

I will say that Adley has ran into some luck issues this month and coupled with his rebound in August from July is somewhat encouraging. I do have to wonder if the nagging back injury has been around longer than just this month. He's had some gnarly/violent looking swings from the left side where it's almost Adrian Beltre-esque with how he nearly falls onto a knee. 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Interestingly enough, Adley has rebounded in August. He had a miserable July (482 OPS, 132 AVG). In August, he's at 691 and 258. Now, are those *good* numbers? No. But they're respectable. Still a far cry from April, May, and June when he had OPSs of 811, 798, 848. 

 

Adley’s slump seems mostly related to not hitting the ball as hard as usual.  During his two month downturn, he’s only struck out 18 times in 163 PA, or once every 9 times.  In the first half it was once every 5.5 PA.  

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Adley’s slump seems mostly related to not hitting the ball as hard as usual.  During his two month downturn, he’s only struck out 18 times in 163 PA, or once every 9 times.  In the first half it was once every 5.5 PA.  

He's also swinging at a lot of trash. Curveballs in the dirt, pitches in on his hands, just stuff that he normally takes and results in walks. 

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Interestingly enough, Adley has rebounded in August. He had a miserable July (482 OPS, 132 AVG). In August, he's at 691 and 258. Now, are those *good* numbers? No. But they're respectable. Still a far cry from April, May, and June when he had OPSs of 811, 798, 848. 

 

Adley’s slump seems mostly related to not hitting the ball as hard as usual.  During his two month downturn, he’s only struck out 18 times in 163 PA, or once every 9 times.  In the first half it was once every 5.5 PA.  But his hard hit rate is just 11.5% in August after being no lower than 27% in any other month.  

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, turtlebowl said:

I mentioned this last week, Adley looks heavy and not in good physical shape.  He is close to 10 years younger than McCann but physically McCann looks to be in so much better condition.  One thing that always irks me is seeing guys with so much money and access to things to help them maintain their bodies, I consider athletes being out of shape a character issue.   Now he could be nursing something that is limiting his workout routine but still that shouldn't be an excuse to be carrying more weight than he should be.

With that said, I do think that Adley struggles a little with an identity crisis as a hitter.  I think he is a little like Markakis, when he stays within himself he is a high average guy with 15 to 20hr power.  Just like Markakis though, he can get himself into funks when he tries to be more than that.  Adley has great bat control when he slows his bat speed down.  When he takes that approach it just looks like he can hit any pitch in the zone and uses the whole field.  When he attacks he tends to miss the barrel way more often.  I actually have a theory that he has hit better this year right handed because of the wall in left field.  Maybe it isn't that tempting to overswing right handed knowing how difficult it is to hit HR's in Camden so he really stays within himself.  

As mentioned we will likely hear more about what the deal is with Adley after the season.  I just don't know how much of it would be excuses that he could have more control over.  I want him to be great but I am more worried now that he will just be good to above average along the lines of Matt Weiters who we always underrated due to all his hype.  

Adley has great bat control when he slows his bat speed down. 

Don't think this makes sense.

Adley is in the 17% for bat speed, in other words 83% of players swing the bat faster.

His problem is that he doesn't have enough bat speed and that leads to weak contact.

[Pushmonkey]

Exhibit A of why not to give 10 year contracts after 3 years in the majors. He’s going to continue to regress. 

[gtman55]

Adley was drafted as the next catching superstar. Yet he has an average arm at best. Average power. Average or lower pitch framer.

I hate to say it but I'm not even sure he'll have a much better career than Wieters.

If the Orioles throw a big money contract to anyone, it should be Gunnar, not Adley.

[Pushmonkey]

5 minutes ago, gtman55 said:

Adley was drafted as the next catching superstar. Yet he has an average arm at best. Average power. Average or lower pitch framer.

I hate to say it but I'm not even sure he'll have a much better career than Wieters.

If the Orioles throw a big money contract to anyone, it should be Gunnar, not Adley.

This!

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, gtman55 said:

Adley was drafted as the next catching superstar. Yet he has an average arm at best. Average power. Average or lower pitch framer.

I hate to say it but I'm not even sure he'll have a much better career than Wieters.

If the Orioles throw a big money contract to anyone, it should be Gunnar, not Adley.

His first two years his framing graded very strong. This is the first year he has been below average. I expect that to normalize. Possible he got a reputation for framing and the umps have overcorrected.

I agree the arm isn't great but you are ignoring his blocking and pop time, which are elite.

I agree with your last sentence, but that is more due to the age and position: I would rather extend a 28 yo SS than a 30 yo C. 

[Spy Fox]

The Wieters comparisons kinda fall short for me since Adley has such a big OBP advantage so far in his career. BUT, that advantage is all from 2022/23, since Adley's OBP has fallen back to earth so much this year. He needs to get back to that guy. I was interested in the approach change to trade patience for power, but it seems not to be really working out. 

[Yossarian]

Right now,  I'm more confident with Urias at the plan than Rutschman.

[turtlebowl]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Adley has great bat control when he slows his bat speed down. 

Don't think this makes sense.

Adley is in the 17% for bat speed, in other words 83% of players swing the bat faster.

His problem is that he doesn't have enough bat speed and that leads to weak contact.

It actually does make sense.  I think we have all seen Adley shorten up his swing and punch the ball into the outfield.  He actually does this a lot right handed.  That to me is why the bat speed thing is a little misleading.  Do you think Adley showed off in the HR derby last year with a swing that is that slow?  He was getting meat balls and letting it fly.  The problem is when he takes a similar approach in games he doesn't barrel the ball up nearly enough which leads to weak contact.

In my humble opinion he gets caught between wanting to be a bat control guy and spread the ball around the whole field or take the Santander approach and swing as hard as you can in case you hit it.  That in between is the worst place to be because you can get lost there and I think that is where Adley is.