Off-season Qualifying Offer Question

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DirtyBird said:

He could have a career year and would still not be worth a QO.

He could, for a team that didn't have the guys sitting in AAA the O's do.

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

He could have a career year and would still not be worth a QO.

If Santander has a career year, he likely will not accept a QO so in that scenario it possibly makes sense to offer him one. But if he finishes with a 775 OPS or around there, I'm not sure if he would accept the QO or not. Would a team lose a 1st round pick for signing him? I could see that severely limiting his market. 

[HandsomeQuack]

Wieters and Colby Rasmus accepted QOs on the same day, or within a day of each other.

I also don't get the opposition to a potential Santander QO. We need to see how the season plays out, obviously, but I don't think a 1 for $20MM is going to affect the long-term financial prospects of the team, nor will it be the difference in the team making some big FA splash that isn't happening either way. And if it would hamper either of those things, then Elias will just not do it.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, HandsomeQuack said:

Wieters and Colby Rasmus accepted QOs on the same day, or within a day of each other.

I also don't get the opposition to a potential Santander QO. We need to see how the season plays out, obviously, but I don't think a 1 for $20MM is going to affect the long-term financial prospects of the team, nor will it be the difference in the team making some big FA splash that isn't happening either way. And if it would hamper either of those things, then Elias will just not do it.

I don't want to lock Santander into an outfield spot for 1/20 when the O's have Stowers, Norby and Kjerstad at the ready.

[HandsomeQuack]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't want to lock Santander into an outfield spot for 1/20 when the O's have Stowers, Norby and Kjerstad at the ready.

That's fair, but Santander is probably better than those guys and it's not *my* $20 million. As long as the team is solvent I'm not losing sleep over their finances.

Edited April 24 by HandsomeQuack

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

I remember the board was positive he wouldn’t accept as well. Was that the first Boras client to accept? 

I was shocked he accepted. Definitely whiffed on that one. 

He ended up making the $15.8M from us, plus 2x$10M with the Nats. I wonder what he would have gotten for a 3 year deal in free agency. 

I see some old projections for him getting $42M to $64M so appears he (or Boras) cost himself some money. I guess he will be OK as a mere 35-millionaire.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, HandsomeQuack said:

That's fair, but Santander is probably better than those guys and it's not *my* $20 million. As long as the team is solvent I'm not losing sleep over their finances..

It isn't just the money, they've got multiple guys that have done well in the minors vying for that roster spot.  You going to keep them all in AAA for another season?

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't want to lock Santander into an outfield spot for 1/20 when the O's have Stowers, Norby and Kjerstad at the ready.

Trade Hays for peanuts and let O'Hearn walk. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Trade Hays for peanuts and let O'Hearn walk. 

O'Hearn walking frees up a spot for Mayo. 

[HandsomeQuack]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

It isn't just the money, they've got multiple guys that have done well in the minors vying for that roster spot.  You going to keep them all in AAA for another season?

I'm going to see how the season plays out -- hopefully Kjerstad gets some run at some point and we get more information on him. But when you are trying to win now, there is value to the bird in the hand.

Stowers and Norby -- they're nice prospects, but there's a pretty good chance they never become what Santander is now.

[OsFanInOhio]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

He could have a career year and would still not be worth a QO.

Explain this to me. He is a younger, better defensive version of Jorge soler. Who just signed for 2 year 42mm. Same for teoscar Hernandez (younger and better defender) who got a 1 yr 23 mm deal. 1 year 20mm seems a pretty decent baseline for what I’d expect he’d get at a minimum coming off potentially 3 consecutive approximately .250/.320/460 seasons with approximately 30 hrs per (assuming he performs as he has rather than dropping off, in which case you don’t give him the offer). Especially when he’s not the defensive liability those other comps have been. 
 

Hopefully with new ownership, we aren’t worried about penny pinching. So paying the low end of market value (or getting a pick when he signs elsewhere) seems relatively prudent to me. 

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

That's fair, but Santander is probably better than those guys and it's not *my* $20 million. As long as the team is solvent I'm not losing sleep over their finances.

Santander being better than those guys doesn’t justify paying him $20 and having him in the 3 or 4 spot 90% of the games.

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Explain this to me. He is a younger, better defensive version of Jorge soler. Who just signed for 2 year 42mm. Same for teoscar Hernandez (younger and better defender) who got a 1 yr 23 mm deal. 1 year 20mm seems a pretty decent baseline for what I’d expect he’d get at a minimum coming off potentially 3 consecutive approximately .250/.320/460 seasons with approximately 30 hrs per (assuming he performs as he has rather than dropping off, in which case you don’t give him the offer). Especially when he’s not the defensive liability those other comps have been. 
 

Hopefully with new ownership, we aren’t worried about penny pinching. So paying the low end of market value (or getting a pick when he signs elsewhere) seems relatively prudent to me. 

The Giants stink and the Dodgers have an infinite budget. Neither of those players or their paychecks have any impact on our decisions. It isn’t like we need to go find a free agent on the open market to replace him.

[HandsomeQuack]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

Santander being better than those guys doesn’t justify paying him $20 and having him in the 3 or 4 spot 90% of the games.

Player A being better than Player B is justification for paying Player A. Duh. He's better and the goal is to win.

This decision will probably make itself easy by the end of the year -- it's the outright dismissal today of extending him the QO that is silly.

[DirtyBird]

6 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

Player A being better than Player B is justification for paying Player A. Duh. He's better and the goal is to win.

This is incredibly stupid. If a 30 year old is 1 WAR better than a 25 year old with multiple years of team control, it doesn’t justify having the 30 year old on a $20 million contract while the 25 year old rots.