Gunnar/ Adley . Would Gunnar have been a good choice at 1-1?

[Sports Guy]

Should the Patriots have taken Tom Brady in the first round even though they could use that resource for something else and get Brady in round 6?

[ChosenOne21]

Witt had hit tool questions on draft day, and Abrams was much less of a sure thing than Adley. Based on information known at the time, we absolutely made the right choice with Adley.

[foxfield]

The answer to the question is obviously no. Now if the question was would Gunnar have been worthy #1 pick the answer seems obvious that he would have been. 
 

But taking him where he went allowed the Orioles to maximize their draft which is what every team hopes to do. 
 

You can argue whether Adley was the right pick but if Gunnar went first there is no way the two picks work as well for Baltimore. 

[webbrick2010]

4 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Witt had hit tool questions on draft day, and Abrams was much less of a sure thing than Adley. Based on information known at the time, we absolutely made the right choice with Adley.

There probably was no "right" choice and absolutely no "absolutely right choice"

I was on record wanting to choose Abrahms and my logic was simple, a 1:1 is a chance to pick a HOF type talent

A college catcher was a safe pick and Adley is having a nice career but he is clearly not a MVP/HOF type player.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

In hindsight, it will become clearer and clearer that the 1:1 should have been either Bobby Witt Jr. or CJ Abrahms each of which has MVP potential this year at the most valuable position on the field (SS)

Imagine Bobby Witt Jr at SS and Gunnar at 3B

I paid through the nose to get Witt on my fantasy team this year. I have Gunnar as a keeper so I've got them both! 

 

[ChosenOne21]

12 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

There probably was no "right" choice and absolutely no "absolutely right choice"

I was on record wanting to choose Abrahms and my logic was simple, a 1:1 is a chance to pick a HOF type talent

A college catcher was a safe pick and Adley is having a nice career but he is clearly not a MVP/HOF type player.

On draft day, you thought CJ Abrams was a potential HOF talent and Adley definitely wasn't?

I'm pretty sure the vast majority of pundits thought Adley was the best pick in the class, and while it's possible they were wrong, Adley wasn't a "safe" pick.

Honestly, I think Adley probably has a better chance than Abrams to be a MVP/HOF. Not only is the bar lower for catchers in the HOF, the only time Abrams has put up HOF numbers over a season is in a 95 PA sample size this year. I'm not saying Abrams isn't a great player who I wouldn't love to have, but let's pump the brakes a little.

BTW, the average HOF catcher has 53.6 career WAR. If Adley puts up a 6.4 WAR season this year, about 50% of catchers with similar WAR totals through their age 26 seasons end up in the HOF. 

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

On draft day, you thought CJ Abrams was a potential HOF talent and Adley definitely wasn't?

I'm pretty sure the vast majority of pundits thought Adley was the best pick in the class, and while it's possible they were wrong, Adley wasn't a "safe" pick.

Honestly, I think Adley probably has a better chance than Abrams to be a MVP/HOF. Not only is the bar lower for catchers in the HOF, the only time Abrams has put up HOF numbers over a season is in a 95 PA sample size this year. I'm not saying Abrams isn't a great player who I wouldn't love to have, but let's pump the brakes a little.

BTW, the average HOF catcher has 53.6 career WAR. If Adley puts up a 6.4 WAR season this year, about 50% of catchers with similar WAR totals through their age 26 seasons end up in the HOF. 

A college player is always a safer pick than a high school player, but often the HS players turn out to be the future elite MVP types. High school higher risk, higher reward. It's where you find your Gunnar Henderson's, Bobby Witts, Jackson Hollidays, Manny Machado, etc. A couple years ago I looked at the All star game roster and 70% were either international (very young) or drafted out of HS

[ChosenOne21]

21 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

A college player is always a safer pick than a high school player, but often the HS players turn out to be the future elite MVP types. High school higher risk, higher reward. It's where you find your Gunnar Henderson's, Bobby Witts, Jackson Hollidays, Manny Machado, etc. A couple years ago I looked at the All star game roster and 70% were either international (very young) or drafted out of HS

High school players are also less likely to make the majors than college players. Picking Abrams or Witt would also increase the chances your 1:1 pick is a bust, or at least less than you hoped for.

When I say Adley wasn't a "safe" pick, I meant that the Orioles didn't sacrifice much, if any, ceiling to raise the floor. I remember the vast majority of pundits saying that Adley was the most likely player in the draft to be an excellent baseball player. A few said they thought Witt or Abrams had a higher ceiling, but they also were less likely to reach it than Adley. And even they were like, "slightly higher ceiling, much lower floor, and C is more valuable than SS."

Even if more all-star level players come out of high school, in that particular draft Adley was a special player who had a super high floor and a super high ceiling. The fact that high school players are more likely in general to be all-stars shouldn't blind one to the fact that there was an incredibly special college talent available at 1:1.

Bottom line is the idea that the O's should have picked anyone other than Adley in that draft was a small minority opinion on draft day, and the fact that Witt and maybe Abrams ended up hitting their ceilings doesn't change the fact that Adley was the obvious choice with the information available at the time, and it's not like it didn't work out awesome for us. I would say Adley is definitely more likely to be a HOF than Abrams and probably Witt, too.

[Frobby]

When second guessing a 1:1 pick, are you looking at his the player does with the 6+ years of team control, or over an entire career?

In any event, even in hindsight, I’m very comfortable with Adley as our 1:1.  He had the best combo of high ceiling/high floor in the draft.  He’s on pace to give us 30+ WAR in his six years under team control, and the team went from laughingstock to winner the nanosecond he arrived in the major leagues.  That works for me!

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

When second guessing a 1:1 pick, are you looking at his the player does with the 6+ years of team control, or over an entire career?

In any event, even in hindsight, I’m very comfortable with Adley as our 1:1.  He had the best combo of high ceiling/high floor in the draft.  He’s on pace to give us 30+ WAR in his six years under team control, and the team went from laughingstock to winner the nanosecond he arrived in the major leagues.  That works for me!

I only look at the first 6 (7) years.  I don't see what they do 15 years from now has any relevance.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I only look at the first 6 (7) years.  I don't see what they do 15 years from now has any relevance.

Arguably, you have a better chance of extending a player than of signing that player as a free agent.  So when drafting, you might take that into account.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Arguably, you have a better chance of extending a player than of signing that player as a free agent.  So when drafting, you might take that into account.  

Arguably...

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

There probably was no "right" choice and absolutely no "absolutely right choice"

I was on record wanting to choose Abrahms and my logic was simple, a 1:1 is a chance to pick a HOF type talent

A college catcher was a safe pick and Adley is having a nice career but he is clearly not a MVP/HOF type player.

That's a pretty presumptuous thing to say. Especially for a 26-year-old guy 23 games into his third season who had a partial rookie year where he finished 12th in the MVP voting, and 9th in his 2nd season. And since the start of 2022 he is the most valuable catcher in baseball by both fWAR and rWAR.

The average HOF catcher ends up around 50 WAR, and Rutschman is currently averaging over 5.0 per 140 games played. 10 years of that doesn't seem at all out of the question.

Among catchers born since 1990 he seems to have as good a chance as anyone. He and JT Realmuto, but Realmuto is already 33 and probably need at least 3-4 more good seasons to have a shot. Perhaps Will Smith, but he's three years older and his best year would be Rutschman's 2nd or 3rd and Rutschman has only played a little over two years.

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Arguably, you have a better chance of extending a player than of signing that player as a free agent.  So when drafting, you might take that into account.  

I think speaking in generalities that's definitely true. I'm sure Corn would argue that we have no proof that the Orioles aren't still the 2006 Orioles so Rutschman's case might be different.

[Philip]

I think my question was clumsy, although I did have a disclaimer at the bottom, which several guys ignored. Oh well.

I suggested that taking one instead of the other would have been a valid pic, but I meant to suggest that Gunnar would have been a good 1-1, and that we made a steal.

I shouldn’t have phrased it in “either or” scenario. I should’ve just compared gunners first two years with the last 20 or so 1-1 picks.

Which I will now do…

Edited April 26 by Philip