Juan Soto - eventual Hall of Famer? Inner Circle?

[ChosenOne21]

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How did he revolutionize hitting?

Ted Williams revolutionized hitting.

Gwynn did it in an old school fashion and very few players after him chose to emulate him.

Gwynn was one of the first hitters to really study film.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Who's using WAR as an argument against Soto? His WAR total for his age is insanely high. Would it be higher if he was better at defense? Of course, but he's such an amazing hitter at such a young age it really doesn't matter. No team in baseball would turn down Juan Soto because of his defense. If he keeps hitting like this, he'll be super valuable even as a full-time DH.

The fact he has 31 career WAR before the age of 26 does tell you Soto is one of the brightest young stars. It doesn't tell you he OPS'd 1.178 in the World Series, but you looked that up just fine anyway.

Tony Gwynn got his 69.2 in a pretty unique way, and he revolutionized hitting. Had he done what everyone else was doing, he'd have probably had less than 69.2 WAR and may not have been a Hall of Famer. If you're saying nobody looked at Gwynn's WAR when voting to elect him to the Hall, you're probably right. And maybe the problem with the Hall is people aren't looking at WAR enough. Sure, there are players who belong in the Hall for reasons beyond counting stats. I'm not saying Gwynn isn't one of those people. But ignoring WAR is how we get pretty good players like Harold Baines alongside the likes of Micky Mantle. If you're under 60 WAR for your career, there should be SERIOUS questions whether you belong in the Hall. If you're over 70, you should almost certainly be in.

I don't think even Jeter's biggest detractors think he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame on account his numbers. They just think he's somewhat overrated by a lot of casual fans and media types, and they're right. Especially on defense.

Not sure what your point about Jeter/Larkin is. They're both in the Hall of Fame and deservedly so.

That may be how the cookie crumbles, but the voters can do better, and I think as they get younger and more intellectual they will.

If you'd read previous posts, there's speculation on where Soto will end up WAR wise for his career.  @Malikesaid that he wouldn't be totally shocked if he ended up around where Derek Jeter is.  @Frobbydoesn't think he gets far past Jeter, if at all.  

In regard to his WAR total being insanely high for his age, that argument ignores the fact that he played 116 games at his 19 year old season....in other words, he's gotten a tremendous jump start on the WAR race.  He's had a 7.1 bWAR season but also mixed in a 2.4 bWAR season and a 3.7 and a 1.8 bWAR season, too.  

He's a bright young star because he's semi-charismatic, he does his antics in the box and he's a great hitter.  But I don't believe he's some WAR machine the way Mike Trout was.  Looking at what he's done over his career, I can see why Malike and Frobby think he'll end up around Jeter's WAR total.  

My point about Jeter and Larkin is that one is looked at as an inner-circle kind of guy, a player who was the face of baseball...and really, kind of continues to be one of the faces of the game, post retirement.  Every time they go to commercial on an Orioles game I see him advertising a video game.  

Larkin, despite having almost nearly the identical WAR value, isn't looked at in the same light.  One played for the Yankees, won a bunch of rings...the other played for the Reds and won 1 ring.   One is looked at as an inner circle guy, almost got voted in unanimously, the other got in with 86.4% of the vote...and didn't make it in on his first try.  Matter of fact, it was his third time on the ballot, he only got 52% of the vote in his first year.

Your Baines argument isn't really congruent with the rest of the arguments at all...looking at WAR was exactly why Baines never got in on his own merit and had to wait for some veterans committee to elect him.  He was on the ballot for 10 years and the writers got it correct every time.

But my argument is putting WAR aside because I don't think WAR tells the whole story for these guys when it comes to HOF voting...which is why I brought up Gwynn and which is why I brought up Ichiro.  Ichiro's bWAR is 60.0 on the dot....are you going to tell me he was a borderline Hall of Famer?  

Did Ichiro mean more to baseball than 60.0?  According to you, if you're under 60 WAR for a career, there should be SERIOUS questions about whether or not a player is HoF worthy.  And here we are with Ichiro, 60.0 on the dot, were there serious questions about him that needed to be had?

Was Jeter's value more to baseball than 71.3?  Was Gwynn's brilliance worth more than 69.2?  You're lying if you say that's all they were worth.  

Dale Murphy is at 46.5.  But is that all the value Dale Murphy brought to the game of baseball?  Legions of adults who grew up watching the Braves across the country while their games were broadcast on Superstation TBS will tell you differently.  

That's why it can't be a WAR race. 

[Say O!]

Frank Thomas and Miggy Cabrera are interesting comps and case studies when looking at Juan Soto.

It’s really hard for guys to stay healthy and compile elite WAR when on the wrong side of 30.  That’s one of the differentiators between regular HOFs with great peak (JAWs) and inner circle HOFs. 

Edited May 29 by Say O!

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

If you'd read previous posts, there's speculation on where Soto will end up WAR wise for his career.  @Malikesaid that he wouldn't be totally shocked if he ended up around where Derek Jeter is.  @Frobbydoesn't think he gets far past Jeter, if at all.  

In regard to his WAR total being insanely high for his age, that argument ignores the fact that he played 116 games at his 19 year old season....in other words, he's gotten a tremendous jump start on the WAR race.  He's had a 7.1 bWAR season but also mixed in a 2.4 bWAR season and a 3.7 and a 1.8 bWAR season, too.  

He's a bright young star because he's semi-charismatic, he does his antics in the box and he's a great hitter.  But I don't believe he's some WAR machine the way Mike Trout was.  Looking at what he's done over his career, I can see why Malike and Frobby think he'll end up around Jeter's WAR total.  

My point about Jeter and Larkin is that one is looked at as an inner-circle kind of guy, a player who was the face of baseball...and really, kind of continues to be one of the faces of the game, post retirement.  Every time they go to commercial on an Orioles game I see him advertising a video game.  

Larkin, despite having almost nearly the identical WAR value, isn't looked at in the same light.  One played for the Yankees, won a bunch of rings...the other played for the Reds and won 1 ring.   One is looked at as an inner circle guy, almost got voted in unanimously, the other got in with 86.4% of the vote...and didn't make it in on his first try.  Matter of fact, it was his third time on the ballot, he only got 52% of the vote in his first year.

Your Baines argument isn't really congruent with the rest of the arguments at all...looking at WAR was exactly why Baines never got in on his own merit and had to wait for some veterans committee to elect him.  He was on the ballot for 10 years and the writers got it correct every time.

But my argument is putting WAR aside because I don't think WAR tells the whole story for these guys when it comes to HOF voting...which is why I brought up Gwynn and which is why I brought up Ichiro.  Ichiro's bWAR is 60.0 on the dot....are you going to tell me he was a borderline Hall of Famer?  

Did Ichiro mean more to baseball than 60.0?  According to you, if you're under 60 WAR for a career, there should be SERIOUS questions about whether or not a player is HoF worthy.  And here we are with Ichiro, 60.0 on the dot, were there serious questions about him that needed to be had?

Was Jeter's value more to baseball than 71.3?  Was Gwynn's brilliance worth more than 69.2?  You're lying if you say that's all they were worth.  

Dale Murphy is at 46.5.  But is that all the value Dale Murphy brought to the game of baseball?  Legions of adults who grew up watching the Braves across the country while their games were broadcast on Superstation TBS will tell you differently.  

That's why it can't be a WAR race. 

I think our biggest point of disagreement is how much things other than stats should play into HoF consideration/who is a star. I'm much more okay with those considerations in the latter case than the former. To me, the Hall of Fame is to honor the people who were better at the game of baseball than even the strongest players of all-time. The Hall of Fame is for the best of the best. I'm not saying you can't recognize or honor people in other ways, but I want the Hall to be for baseball excellence purely.

And yeah, I don't believe Soto is a WAR machine like Trout (That should be Trout's nickname). He doesn't have to in order to be an easy Hall of Famer. He can average three or so WAR per year until he's 35, which isn't a high bar for a player of his talent.

I realized Baines was a Veteran's committee addition after making the post. Oops. I'm sure the writers have made some head-scratching choices over the years, but I'm too lazy to research it right now. Substitute one of them for Baines.

I agree that WAR doesn't tell the whole story when it comes to HoF voting. Obviously not. I'm just saying that it should be most of the consideration.

Ichiro obviously meant more to baseball than 60.0. I'm sure he had a considerable WAR total in Japan before coming over and if you add them together you'll get a better picture. Even if you discount those WAR somewhat for being earned in NPB.

71.3 and 69.2 are a hell of a lot of WAR. Heck, so is 46.5. If you're saying they brought more enjoyment to fans than the sum total of their numbers, I don't necessarily disagree. Just don't think "bringing joy to fans/value to MLB" should be a reason to enshrine someone. Find another way to honor them if the stats aren't there.

[Just Regular]

It is a nice bauble for Stephen Strasburg's eventual HOF debate he earned the nod for 2019 World Series MVP when Soto had an 1.178 OPS across 32 PA.

The B-Ref World Series box gives Soto 28% cWPA, and Strasburg 20% (lagging Game 7 relief star Patrick Corbin, perhaps slagging his career but Flags Fly Forever).

Juan Soto is probably going to be part of every tournament the next dozen years unless maybe every Nationals fan's innermost wish comes true, and even then he'd probably get to most of them.

How far he climbs the legends ladder will in large part depend on how those Octobers go.     Hopefully pretty quietly in 2024.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I think our biggest point of disagreement is how much things other than stats should play into HoF consideration/who is a star. I'm much more okay with those considerations in the latter case than the former. To me, the Hall of Fame is to honor the people who were better at the game of baseball than even the strongest players of all-time. The Hall of Fame is for the best of the best. I'm not saying you can't recognize or honor people in other ways, but I want the Hall to be for baseball excellence purely.

And yeah, I don't believe Soto is a WAR machine like Trout (That should be Trout's nickname). He doesn't have to in order to be an easy Hall of Famer. He can average three or so WAR per year until he's 35, which isn't a high bar for a player of his talent.

I realized Baines was a Veteran's committee addition after making the post. Oops. I'm sure the writers have made some head-scratching choices over the years, but I'm too lazy to research it right now. Substitute one of them for Baines.

I agree that WAR doesn't tell the whole story when it comes to HoF voting. Obviously not. I'm just saying that it should be most of the consideration.

Ichiro obviously meant more to baseball than 60.0. I'm sure he had a considerable WAR total in Japan before coming over and if you add them together you'll get a better picture. Even if you discount those WAR somewhat for being earned in NPB.

71.3 and 69.2 are a hell of a lot of WAR. Heck, so is 46.5. If you're saying they brought more enjoyment to fans than the sum total of their numbers, I don't necessarily disagree. Just don't think "bringing joy to fans/value to MLB" should be a reason to enshrine someone. Find another way to honor them if the stats aren't there.

I've kind of gone from a small-hall guy to a bigg-ish hall guy.  I dunno why.

I think WAR plays a big part of the argument, for sure.   In the Murphy case, he has the hardware to back it up, too...I don't think his entire story can be encapsulated by just looking at his bWAR.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Say O! said:

Frank Thomas and Miggy Cabrera are interesting comps and case studies when looking at Juan Soto.

It’s really hard for guys to stay healthy and compile elite WAR when on the wrong side of 30.  That’s one of the differentiators between regular HOFs with great peak (JAWs) and inner circle HOFs. 

I think Soto’s body type may lend itself to a longer productive period than some of the heavier, big body types.  But who knows?

[survivedc]

Called out for Runners Interference tonight after hip checking the SS trying to catch a pop up. It was an awkward play for sure but amusing to hear Michael Kay so confused.

[emmett16]

Good read.  Puts his ability into perspective.s The man is truly remarkable. 
 

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-swing-breakdown

 

Pretty Cool Gunnar gets mentioned quite a bit in this article. 

Edited June 12 by emmett16

[Hallas]

On 5/29/2024 at 8:03 AM, Say O! said:

Frank Thomas and Miggy Cabrera are interesting comps and case studies when looking at Juan Soto.

It’s really hard for guys to stay healthy and compile elite WAR when on the wrong side of 30.  That’s one of the differentiators between regular HOFs with great peak (JAWs) and inner circle HOFs. 

I don't think he really needs to compile elite WAR into his 30s in order to be a hall of famer.  He puts up 5 more 6-WAR seasons and he's a middle-of-the-pack HOFer at the age of 30.  He sneaks in 1-3 more good seasons in after 30 and he's already into first-ballot territory.