How is Elias' "Elite Talent Pipeline"?

[doccat]

I remember when he was hired as GM.  His goal was to establish "an elite talent pipeline"...

 

On Opening Day, I was convinced he had achieved his goal.  The Major League Team won over 100 games last year and we had the #1 rated farm system.  

 

Since then, I am a lot less sure...  With the exception of Basallo, NONE of our International guys have achieved anything noteworthy.  We have graduated a few guys up to the Majors but many of our "better" prospects and/or high draft picks have been really struggling.  Beavers has been just ok. Bradfield I knew would struggle to hit and has zero power.  Wagner has been hurt and ineffective. Horvath is really having an awful year.  I know, we still have Mayo, Norby, Holliday doing pretty well, and Basallo...  but is the Elite Talent Pipeline drying up??  We really need Elias to hit on 1 or 2 guys this year in a big way...

[RZNJ]

16 hours ago, doccat said:

I remember when he was hired as GM.  His goal was to establish "an elite talent pipeline"...

 

On Opening Day, I was convinced he had achieved his goal.  The Major League Team won over 100 games last year and we had the #1 rated farm system.  

 

Since then, I am a lot less sure...  With the exception of Basallo, NONE of our International guys have achieved anything noteworthy.  We have graduated a few guys up to the Majors but many of our "better" prospects and/or high draft picks have been really struggling.  Beavers has been just ok. Bradfield I knew would struggle to hit and has zero power.  Wagner has been hurt and ineffective. Horvath is really having an awful year.  I know, we still have Mayo, Norby, Holliday doing pretty well, and Basallo...  but is the Elite Talent Pipeline drying up??  We really need Elias to hit on 1 or 2 guys this year in a big way...

You’re right on some things.  Wrong on others.  Bradfield hasn’t shown zero power.  7 doubles and 3 triples in 31 games.  Do the math.

Our international program hit on Basallo.   Sosa, Estrada, and Arias are all making solid progress as 19 year olds in Delmarva.   Portes, Chace, and DeLeon are young pitchers doing well at Aberdeen.

 

The big question is do we have any elite prospects after Mayo, Holliday, Kjerstad and Basallo.   It doesn’t look like it right now.  The hope is that some of the Latin players become just that.  Bradfield still has a good chance to be a top 100 guy and maybe a top 50 guy.

I share your concerns.  Elias hit big time in the 2019 and 2020 drafts.  That’s hard to replicate.   In fact, he didn’t replicate in the next two drafts although he made a huge correct call on Holliday over Druw Jones and others. 

I share your concerns.  We are going to need some stud prospects after the Norfolk crop and Basallo and currently it’s hard to see who that might be.  Remember, Mayo didn’t become a stud until last year when he was 21.   Gunnar was good but not special until he was 20/21.    A Thomas Sosa, Josh Liranzo, Leandro Arias, etc, hopefully will emerge over the next  2 years.  It’s going to be hard, not impossible, to find stud position players picking 22 or lower in the draft.

[OsFanInOhio]

We’ve graduated adley, Gunnar, westburg, Grayson over the last 3 years, who have flashed all star caliber potential (if not already all stars)

we also just graduated cowser who is still one of the front runners for ROTY this year. 
 

We have Mayo and Holliday who could realistically be two of the top 3 or 4 ROTY candidates for 2025 and basallo who could be the same for 2026…

 

what exactly do you want? Elite talent pipeline doesn’t mean we have multiple all star potential prospects in the minors at all times. No team has that. 
 

bradfield is in his first full year of pro ball, and we knew when he was drafted he’d probably need swing changes. He’s already on some top 100 prospect lists, and may join more of his early season struggles are behind him (again - potential swing changes can do that). 
 

beavers, another guy who was known to probably need swing changes and was a project prospect rather than a rapid mover , is 22 and hitting at a 150 wrc+ in aa with over 300 appearances, and is flashing more power this year (iso 211 which is higher than any level previously). 
 

most of our international prospects are still teenagers. We only really got into the international market 4 years ago (the first year we were just picking up scraps), and most prospects are teenagers that have agreements in place 1 or 2 years ahead of time. Basallo looks legit, de Leon has flashed a ton of potential, and almeyda missed most of his first pro year with an injury. 
 

we would’ve basically had 3 first round picks in July had we not traded for Burnes, but that trade for Burnes and his likely exit and subsequent qualifying offer means not only do we effectively have 2 first round picks this year but also effectively 2 next year (not to mention additional picks if Gunnar finishes top 3 in mvp voting or cowser finishes top 2 in ROTY). 
 

I think our system is doing just fine. 

[Sports Guy]

[Aglets]

When is Elias going to help fix our prospect pipeline so that we can improve from the top minor league system in baseball to the ...........umm............I mean...................hold on.

[DocJJ]

Overall, I'd give Elias an 'A' for his efforts....  

 

But it's hard to see the next wave of potential help coming after Mayo, Basallo, and Holliday.  I know some people are high on Beavers, Bradfield (I am not).  Hard to know what to make of Norby- he hits- sometimes...  I hope we don't part with any of Mayo, Basallo or Holliday in order to find relief pitching....

[Aglets]

3 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Overall, I'd give Elias an 'A' for his efforts....  

 

But it's hard to see the next wave of potential help coming after Mayo, Basallo, and Holliday.  I know some people are high on Beavers, Bradfield (I am not).  Hard to know what to make of Norby- he hits- sometimes...  I hope we don't part with any of Mayo, Basallo or Holliday in order to find relief pitching....

I think less than a 0.5% chance that Elias trades any of those 3 guys.  He will move someone else for bullpen help.

[Sports Guy]

To get this conversation into a sane direction, Elias’ ability to keep the pipeline going will be slightly tougher without the higher pick but we see this all the time for teams like the DodgerS and Rays.

You can always find talent if you have the correct process.

That said, I also think it will be important for Elias to trade vets that shouldn’t be making the larger arb money and get prospects back for them, while backfilling their spots with younger, talented guys with more service time and a cheaper salary.

[emmett16]

If Basallo goes off in the second half we have an outside shot for 4 #1 prospects 4 years in a row.  I’d say that’s elite.  The Latin players he signed in his first year are now 19 & 20 and just getting into full-season ball.  They have also hit on a lot of trades (Brandish, Cano, Povich, McDermott) and will continue to supplement the pipeline through additional trades.  Etzel, Fabian, EBJ, Horvath could all turn the dial up a notch or 2 and become big time prospects.