Runner on 3B and less than two out - who do you want up there?

[Frobby]

Last night, when O’Hearn was on 3B with one out, O’s up by only a run, I was thinking to myself, “there’s practically nobody on this team I’d rather have up in this situation than Jordan Westburg.”  Westburg quickly proved me right with his opposite field homer, but that was beside the point.  A fly out would have done just fine.   And I was confident Westburg would get the job done.  

Contrary to @Roy Firestone’s belief, these situations are difficult for major leaguers.   The average hitter gets the runner home from 3B only 51.6% of the time.  The Orioles are currently a small fraction below average in those situations, at 51.2%.   

So who’s been good or bad at it this year?  First, understand that the sample sizes are small.   Nobody’s had more than 18 opportunities with a runner on 3B and less than 2 out, and only 7 players on the team have had as many as 10 chances.  So, all the SSS caveats apply.  Just looking at those with 10+ chances, you’re going to be shocked who leads the pack:

Cedric Mullins 72.7% (8/11)

Adley Rutschman 64.3% (9/14)

Anthony Santander 60.0% (6/10)

Jordan Westburg 60% (6/10)

Gunnar Henderson 50% (6/12) 

Ryan Mountcastle 46.2% (6/13)

Colton Cowser 33.3% (6/18)

Cowser’s ineptitude is particularly galling since he’s had by far the most chances on the team.   

Here are some career numbers;

Westburg 70%

Rutschman 61.9%

O’Hearn 61.0%

Mountcastle 56.9%

Mullins 53.5%

Henderson 52.4%

Urias 52.4%

Hays 52.2%

Santander 51.5%

Mateo 50.8%

McCann 47.1%

Looks like my gut instinct on Westburg was pretty good!  
 

[Spy Fox]

Rutschman was my first instinct. He has very good bat to ball skills in general, and I think adjusts his approach to match the situation more than most do. I wonder if the new bat path data can back this up-- by the eye test, Adley has a bigger difference between his power swing and contact swing than most of our players. 

Mullins leading the pack this year is certainly a surprise given how much he is striking out and popping up, which are the main ways to ensure a bad outcome in that situation. 

[Too Tall]

I would have been torn between Adley and Westburg. I think however that Westburg is the kind of player who will find a way even with two strikes on him at the time. So, I pick Westy.

[Pickles]

My first thought is Adley because he controls the strike zone the best and may have the best hit tool as well.

[Allan Bryant]

Adley is my first choice for clutch situations . However Westburg surprised me this year.   I hope other hitters improve their clutch numbers for  this season 

[Three Run Homer]

Unfortunately I was not surprised to see Cowser at the bottom of the list.   He has struggled mightily in clutch situations.  But I think that will improve with more experience.  

[Three Run Homer]

Clearly the best way to get Cedric Mullins out of his slump is to get more runners on third base ahead of him.  

[Moose Milligan]

I was gonna say Adley or Westburg. Both have great approaches at the plate and seem to be able to shorten their swings in certain moments, too. 

[Fiver6565]

I had the exact same thought as @Frobbyduring that same at bat last night, and my answer remains the same. Westburg for me. 

[Yossarian]

I was going to say O'Hearn.  He is not on your list,  though.   Maybe he's had too few opportunities?  It seems like he hits the ball hard every time he's up there. 

[Aristotelian]

Adley vs LHP, Gunnar vs RHP.

[Sports Guy]

Our best hitters are Cowser, Westburg, Gunnar and Adley…any of them are good to me…of course if someone else is hot at time, they enter the picture.

 

 

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, Too Tall said:

I would have been torn between Adley and Westburg. I think however that Westburg is the kind of player who will find a way even with two strikes on him at the time. So, I pick Westy.

Westburg is an excellent 2 strike hitter.

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, Yossarian said:

I was going to say O'Hearn.  He is not on your list,  though.   Maybe he's had too few opportunities?  It seems like he hits the ball hard every time he's up there. 

He’s 3 for 4.  As is Stowers.  

[Malike]

I'd pick Adley, switch hitter, good from both sides of the plate.