Catch probability question...

[drjohnnyfever1]

So last night, 7/3, Julio Rodriguez didn't make the catch on that 2-run double by O'Hearn.  It was a long run, but that looked like it should have been caught.  Then Hayes made a nice diving catch in LF and Santander made that sliding grab in RF.  I was wondering about the catch probability of those plays and where you guys get those stats/ details.  I'm thinking the Rodriquez play was less likely caught than the other two, but Santander might have been close.  I'm trying to get a handle on this stat, because of what was discussed in the last thread (...that I couldn't locate) and the understanding that how spectacular a catch might look might not be a good indicator of probability.

My untrained eyes say Rodriguez was most unlikely, followed by Santander, and then Hayes.  I'm probably completely wrong.

[Jim'sKid26]

56 minutes ago, drjohnnyfever1 said:

So last night, 7/3, Julio Rodriguez didn't make the catch on that 2-run double by O'Hearn.  It was a long run, but that looked like it should have been caught.  Then Hayes made a nice diving catch in LF and Santander made that sliding grab in RF.  I was wondering about the catch probability of those plays and where you guys get those stats/ details.  I'm thinking the Rodriquez play was less likely caught than the other two, but Santander might have been close.  I'm trying to get a handle on this stat, because of what was discussed in the last thread (...that I couldn't locate) and the understanding that how spectacular a catch might look might not be a good indicator of probability.

My untrained eyes say Rodriguez was most unlikely, followed by Santander, and then Hayes.  I'm probably completely wrong.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catch_probability

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=745234

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catch_probability

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=745234

Unfortunately, the game logs such as the one you linked don't show the catch probability of various plays.   So far as I know, the only way to find them is:

1.   Using a laptop or desk computer (not a phone), go to the Baseball Savant page for the player who made/missed the play.

2.  Scroll down to the light green ribbon and click on "fielding."

3.  Scroll further down until you seen the graph that shows distance and hang time on the two axes.  Each dot represents a play, with red dots representing catches made and grey representing catches not made.   From there, you have to take educated guesses as to which dot represents the play you are looking for.   When you click on the dot, a video of the play will come up along with a side box noting the date, and you can confirm if you found what you are looking for.

4.  Once you've found the right dot, you can hover the cursor over it and it will give you a catch probability.   

It's a complete pain in the butt to have to do it this way, but there it is.

So, I have done that for the three plays described in the OP:

The Julio Rodriguez attempt on O'Hearn's double was rated a 15% probability catch, requiring the CF to cover 95 feet in 4.8 seconds.

The Austin Hays diving catch was rated a 75% probability catch, requiring Hays to cover 37 feet in 3.3 seconds.

The Anthony Santander sliding catch was deemed an 80% probability catch, requiring Santander to cover 98 feet in 5.4 seconds.

For an extra added bonus, this July 2 catch by Colton Cowser in the LF corner was rated a 40% probability catch, requiring Cowser to cover 95 feet in 5.0 seconds.

[FlaO'sFan]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Julio Rodriguez attempt on O'Hearn's double was rated a 15% probability catch, requiring the CF to cover 95 feet in 4.8 seconds.

For an extra added bonus, this July 2 catch by Colton Cowser in the LF corner was rated a 40% probability catch, requiring Cowser to cover 95 feet in 5.0 seconds.

For both of the catches you listed above, they needed to cover an identical 95 feet, but a difference of .2 seconds changed the probability from 15% to 40%. I was watching both of those plays as they happened and I was sure Julio was going to run down his ball (15%), and just as sure Colton wasn't going to get to his (40%). I was pleasantly surprised by both.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

For both of the catches you listed above, they needed to cover an identical 95 feet, but a difference of .2 seconds changed the probability from 15% to 40%. I was watching both of those plays as they happened and I was sure Julio was going to run down his ball (15%), and just as sure Colton wasn't going to get to his (40%). I was pleasantly surprised by both.

Yes.  For perspective, it takes 3 second for a fielder to get to top speed.  Once there, he's running 25-30 feet per second, depending who it is.   So an extra 0.2 seconds allows a fielder to cover an extra 5-6 feet.   That's why the Rodriguez play is a 15% probability and Santander 80%.   Statcast also makes some adjustments based on plays where the outfielder is going back, which are deemed harder than played going forward or laterally.  They also make adjustments if the wall comes in to play.

[Il BuonO]

15 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

For both of the catches you listed above, they needed to cover an identical 95 feet, but a difference of .2 seconds changed the probability from 15% to 40%. I was watching both of those plays as they happened and I was sure Julio was going to run down his ball (15%), and just as sure Colton wasn't going to get to his (40%). I was pleasantly surprised by both.

The ball did hit the glove of JRod. Shoulda been an error.

 

 

[Il BuonO]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.  For perspective, it takes 3 second for a fielder to get to top speed.  Once there, he's running 25-30 feet per second, depending who it is.   So an extra 0.2 seconds allows a fielder to cover an extra 5-6 feet.   That's why the Rodriguez play is a 15% probability and Santander 80%.   Statcast also makes some adjustments based on plays where the outfielder is going back, which are deemed harder than played going forward or laterally.  They also make adjustments if the wall comes in to play.

Some really great catches in that link. I like the stop action at the moment of impact to show how difficult any of those catches actually is to make.

[FlaO'sFan]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.  For perspective, it takes 3 second for a fielder to get to top speed.  Once there, he's running 25-30 feet per second, depending who it is.   So an extra 0.2 seconds allows a fielder to cover an extra 5-6 feet.   That's why the Rodriguez play is a 15% probability and Santander 80%.   Statcast also makes some adjustments based on plays where the outfielder is going back, which are deemed harder than played going forward or laterally.  They also make adjustments if the wall comes in to play.

Thanks. Good info.

[Frobby]

Thought it might be interesting to post links to the most unlikely catch each of our main OF's has made this year, per Statcast.

Mullins: 50% catch covering 51 feet in 3.6 seconds.

Cowser: 5% catch covering 68 feet in 4.0 seconds.

Santander: 50% catch covering 49 feet in 3.5 seconds.

Hays: that catch from last night, 75% catch covering 37 feet in 3.3 seconds.

Stowers: 60% catch covering 78 feet in 4.6 seconds.

Kjerstad: 85% catch covering 79 feet in 4.8 seconds.

O'Hearn: 80% catch covering 50 feet in 3.7 seconds.

McKenna: 55% catch covering 97 feet in 5.2 seconds.

Cowser must have gotten an amazing jump on that 5% catch, because it didn't look nearly that hard.

[drjohnnyfever1]

Ahhh, thanks, guys!  I was right about the Rodriguez one but reversed on Hays and Santander. 

Thanks, Frobby, for the graph and hover.  It seems like they need to make it a little more user friendly, but I'm happy to have the info at all.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

The ball did hit the glove of JRod. Shoulda been an error.

 

 

The Statcast data does help highlight the silliness of errors. Or some of them. Rodriguez has a top sprint speed of over 29 feet/second, while Anthony Santander is at 26. On a 4-second hang time ball Rodriguez will be able to cover roughly 10-12 additional feet. So if a ball goes off his glove at the end he likely gets an error, while on the very same ball Santander gets credit for chasing a double or a triple up the gap.

And then back to our discussion yesterday about ERA in another thread, whomever was on the mound is absolved from the Rodriguez error, while they take full blame for Santander allowing the extra-base hit.

Edited Friday at 11:42 by DrungoHazewood

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The Statcast data does help highlight the silliness of errors. Or some of them. Rodriguez has a top sprint speed of over 29 feet/second, while Anthony Santander is at 26. On a 4-second hang time ball Rodriguez will be able to cover roughly 10-12 additional feet. So if a ball goes off his glove at the end he likely gets an error, while on the very same ball Santander gets credit for chasing a double or a triple up the gap.

And then back to our discussion yesterday about ERA in another thread, whomever was on the mound is absolved from the Rodriguez error, while they take full blame for Santander allowing the extra-base hit.

This doesn’t detract from your main point, but fielders don’t get up to full speed for the first 3 seconds.  On average, Santander covers 32.2 feet in the first 3 seconds, Rodriguez 36.6, per Statcast jump data.  So, the difference on a 4 second hang time ball is more like 7-8 feet rather than 10-12.  

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

This doesn’t detract from your main point, but fielders don’t get up to full speed for the first 3 seconds.  On average, Santander covers 32.2 feet in the first 3 seconds, Rodriguez 36.6, per Statcast jump data.  So, the difference on a 4 second hang time ball is more like 7-8 feet rather than 10-12.  

Sure. I said 10-12 feet because that would be the extreme range of the difference in how far they could cover in four seconds. As you mention real life is a bit less.

[sportsfan8703]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Unfortunately, the game logs such as the one you linked don't show the catch probability of various plays.   So far as I know, the only way to find them is:

1.   Using a laptop or desk computer (not a phone), go to the Baseball Savant page for the player who made/missed the play.

2.  Scroll down to the light green ribbon and click on "fielding."

3.  Scroll further down until you seen the graph that shows distance and hang time on the two axes.  Each dot represents a play, with red dots representing catches made and grey representing catches not made.   From there, you have to take educated guesses as to which dot represents the play you are looking for.   When you click on the dot, a video of the play will come up along with a side box noting the date, and you can confirm if you found what you are looking for.

4.  Once you've found the right dot, you can hover the cursor over it and it will give you a catch probability.   

It's a complete pain in the butt to have to do it this way, but there it is.

So, I have done that for the three plays described in the OP:

The Julio Rodriguez attempt on O'Hearn's double was rated a 15% probability catch, requiring the CF to cover 95 feet in 4.8 seconds.

The Austin Hays diving catch was rated a 75% probability catch, requiring Hays to cover 37 feet in 3.3 seconds.

The Anthony Santander sliding catch was deemed an 80% probability catch, requiring Santander to cover 98 feet in 5.4 seconds.

For an extra added bonus, this July 2 catch by Colton Cowser in the LF corner was rated a 40% probability catch, requiring Cowser to cover 95 feet in 5.0 seconds.

Nice. This is much better than that Twitter feed I was using.