Outfield PA the rest of the way

[Pickles]

50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s only played there a small amount in the majors.  In the minors, he played CF about 75% of the time.   So, it’s not like he’s inexperienced as a CF.   

The point of contention isn't Cowser's experience, but rather the value of those defensive stats in such a small sample.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

In CF: 

Mullins (624.1 innings): -1 Rtot, -1 Rdrs, +3 OAA, +0.1 UZR

Cowser (152.0 innings): +3 Rtot, +1 Rdrs, +1 OAA, +0.5 UZR

Cowser tops Mullins in 3 of the 4 metrics, and also in the fourth one if you pro-rate it by innings played.  

So, I’m not going to say Cowser is as good or better than Mullins in CF, but where’s the evidence that he isn’t?   The only real evidence is that when they’re both in the field at the same time, Hyde plays Mullins in CF.   But that may be more of a veteran deference thing, or it may reflect, as @Sports Guysaid, that Cowser’s skill set works better than Mullins’ in a corner spot.  Honestly, I couldn’t see Mullins making the throw from the LF wall at all.   And, throwing left-handed is disadvantageous for a LF on a lot of plays Cowser throws right-handed).  
 

The bolded is honestly enough for me.

Hyde said verbatim on Sunday that "Mullins is my best defensive center fielder."

They surely have proprietary stats we are  not privy to, and there's no reason to think they're not better than what he have, and that the O's would go against them if they showed something different.

There's no evidence they do things out of "veteran deference."  If they did, they wouldn't have sat Mullins and Hays as much as they have this year.

BTW, why do you think it's disadvantageous to be LH in LF?  You do have to turn against your body to throw to second, but any ball you're moving towards the line to field is an easier play.  

[Pickles]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

There's a lot to like about Cowser.  He does a lot of things well.

Unfortunate, he has one giant gaping hole in his game, and it may well be the most important tool.

That said, I want him to play a lot going forward and I still think he can improve.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

 

BTW, why do you think it's disadvantageous to be LH in LF?  You do have to turn against your body to throw to second, but any ball you're moving towards the line to field is an easier play.  

I was mostly thinking about the throwing.   

[HowAboutThat]

19 hours ago, Malike said:

This is good reading.

According to Tom Tango, MLB Senior Database Architect of Stats, expected stats were designed to only be descriptive. If the goal was to be predictive, they would have been designed differently. Expected stats tell you what the likely outcome should have been. They are not predictive so use them accordingly.

Properly Diving Into Expected Stats | Community Blog (fangraphs.com)

I want to make sure I understand. So what these stats refer to is the expected outcome of a play that has already happened? As in, “in this play, we expected X, And Y happened?”

And the only thing we can glean from this information is whether a player has been particularly unlucky or not?

If I’m correct, I don’t see much value in this particular stat, and if I’m still incorrect, or at least incomplete, do you mind filling in what I’m missing?

Because to be honest, when I look at a savant page and see a whole lot of red, I occasionally don’t look much deeper.

Edited July 9 by HowAboutThat

[Malike]

Just now, HowAboutThat said:

I want to make sure I understand. So what these stats refer to is the expected outcome of a play that has already happened? As in, “in this play as we would have expected X, And Y happened?”

And the only thing we can glean from this information is whether a player has been particularly unlucky or not?

If I’m correct, I don’t see much value in this particular stat, and if I’m still incorrect, or at least incomplete, do you mind filling in what I’m missing?

Because to be honest, when I look at a savant page and see a whole lot of red, I occasionally don’t look much deeper.

Your first paragraph is correct. If you have time you should really read the article I linked, it should answer all of your questions and I'm at work so have really limited time depending on when the next emergency happens or BS drunk annoying call, etc.

[LGOrioles]

Mullins is hitting .174 in July with 1 XBH and a 7:1 K/BB ratio. Cowser’s OPS on the season is now .108 points higher and he’s been worth 1.7 more WAR in almost the same number of PA’s.

Deciding who gets more PA’s between the two shouldn’t be that hard. Mullins has a .640 OPS the last calendar year. I’ll take my chances with Cowser. 

[EdwinRip]

Please stop playing Mullins and Mountcastle every game!

[Brooks The Great]

4 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

Mullins is hitting .174 in July with 1 XBH and a 7:1 K/BB ratio. Cowser’s OPS on the season is now .108 points higher and he’s been worth 1.7 more WAR in almost the same number of PA’s.

Deciding who gets more PA’s between the two shouldn’t be that hard. Mullins has a .640 OPS the last calendar year. I’ll take my chances with Cowser. 

As I've mentioned previously on this board, Mullins needs to be made into the full-time 4th OF immediately. It's ridiculous that Hyde and Elias have mishandled and benched Kjerstad so much when he's a difference-making bat. And it's also bad roster management to have been benching Cowser more often recently.

Cowser is a fine defensive CF, has clearly better offensive numbers than Mullins, has gotten unlucky, and has good underlying metrics which suggest he has even more offensive upside to tap into. He needs to be this team's full-time CF as soon as possible.

Mullins is a clearly declining player. It's time to make a change. Mullins would be one of the very best 4th OF's in baseball, and can play regularly as a late-game defensive replacement for Kjerstad (pushing Cowser back to LF when Mullins comes into games). Mullins would also be a great pinch-runner for late game situations, making Jorge Mateo even more obsolete after Coby Mayo is called up.

Edited July 10 by Brooks The Great

[sportsfan8703]

Cowser had elite batting analytics “red” when he makes contact. The contact is the “blue” part of his baseball savant page. 

Gotta make contact. Contact to damage ratio. Channeling Buck Showalter post game pressers. 

[LGOrioles]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Cowser had elite batting analytics “red” when he makes contact. The contact is the “blue” part of his baseball savant page. 

Gotta make contact. Contact to damage ratio. Channeling Buck Showalter post game pressers. 

Cowser does K 6.7% more than Mullins but he also walks 4.4% more. Even with the K’s, his OBP is .309 (compared to a laughable .257 for Mullins) and his SLG is .430 (compared to .374 for Mullins). Striking out less isn’t really that much of an argument in favor of Mullins considering his low walk rate and how little damage he does when he makes contact. 

Since May 1st, when Cowser has struggled, he has a 78 wRC+. Mullins has a 75 wRC+ in the last calendar year. There is zero reason to be playing Mullins over Cowser. He has considerably less upside offensively and while Cowser has been going through some rookie struggles the last 2 months, he’s still been better offensively in that time frame than Mullins has been in the last calendar year (which covers 132 games and 451 PA’s).

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, LGOrioles said:

Cowser does K 6.7% more than Mullins but he also walks 4.4% more. Even with the K’s, his OBP is .309 (compared to a laughable .257 for Mullins) and his SLG is .430 (compared to .374 for Mullins). Striking out less isn’t really that much of an argument in favor of Mullins considering his low walk rate and how little damage he does when he makes contact. 

Since May 1st, when Cowser has struggled, he has a 78 wRC+. Mullins has a 75 wRC+ in the last calendar year. There is zero reason to be playing Mullins over Cowser. He has considerably less upside offensively and while Cowser has been going through some rookie struggles the last 2 months, he’s still been better offensively in that time frame than Mullins has been in the last calendar year (which covers 132 games and 451 PA’s).

There’s a million ways to slice and dice this.   Mullins had an abysmal May, so starting with May 1 isn’t doing him any favors.  He rebounded nicely in June, while Cowser really didn’t.  They’re both getting plenty of playing time and I expect that will continue, but right now I’m leaning Mullins until Cowser heats up.  

[LGOrioles]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s a million ways to slice and dice this.   Mullins had an abysmal May, so starting with May 1 isn’t doing him any favors.  He rebounded nicely in June, while Cowser really didn’t.  They’re both getting plenty of playing time and I expect that will continue, but right now I’m leaning Mullins until Cowser heats up.  

I was counting Cowser’s stats since May since that’s when he started struggling. Mullins wRC+ listed was from the last calendar year, so a much larger sample size where he has been struggling even more so than Cowser. 

[Rbiggs2525]

 Cowser will start in CF at least one of the next 2 nights vs tough LHP. Mullins seems to get the tough days off. 

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

Cowser does K 6.7% more than Mullins but he also walks 4.4% more. Even with the K’s, his OBP is .309 (compared to a laughable .257 for Mullins) and his SLG is .430 (compared to .374 for Mullins). Striking out less isn’t really that much of an argument in favor of Mullins considering his low walk rate and how little damage he does when he makes contact. 

Since May 1st, when Cowser has struggled, he has a 78 wRC+. Mullins has a 75 wRC+ in the last calendar year. There is zero reason to be playing Mullins over Cowser. He has considerably less upside offensively and while Cowser has been going through some rookie struggles the last 2 months, he’s still been better offensively in that time frame than Mullins has been in the last calendar year (which covers 132 games and 451 PA’s).

I don't think it is clear at all. They have both been maddeningly inconsistent at the plate. Mullins is coming off an .849 June. They are both under .500 in July. Sharing time makes sense until one or the other establishes consistency. I think Mullins has an edge on defense, Cowser's OBP gives him an edge on offense.