Crochet trade proposal

[Tryptamine]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The degree to which folks here undervalue pitching is startling.

I don't think people realize that Crochet possibly being available for a Kjerstad headed package is the discount. If he didn't come with the innings issues/injury history it would be significantly more. The guy is on pace to put up over 7 fWAR in 2024. You know how many put 7 fWAR in 2023? 0. You know how many put up 6 fWAR? 0. He's on pace to put up the best season by a starting pitcher since Corbin Burnes in 2021 where he put up a 1.63 FIP and 7.5 fWAR. Yeah, he'll probably be on an inning limit in 2024, but you'd still potentially have 2 years of a true ace. It's not like the Orioles are 2024 or bust.

[Greg Pappas]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Came close ?   I don’t think it was ever close. 
 

If he’s interested in an ACE for this year that’s not Crochet due to availability. He’s already shattered he’s s innings high X5 . So at best he’s an opener  or a leverage reliever. Plus he’s an injury risk as that’s what the last 4-5 years tells you. 
 

So his value wouldn’t include a top 100 prospect. The Yankees are unwilling to trade the #74 prospect in a trade for him. 
 

there was a rumor of the Orioles interest so there is no doubt they’ve spoken. If Getz started with Holiday, Mayo, Basallo, or Kjerstad the call probably ended quickly. 
 

Cease ended up netting the #85 prospect in Thorpe, a relief pitcher ( noncloser) , and two young prospects that have struggled Zavala at A+ and Irarte 

So to recap ….

TRADE DETAILS
Padres receive: RHP Dylan Cease
White Sox receive: RHP Drew Thorpe (MLB Pipeline's No. 85 prospect; SD No. 5), OF Samuel Zavala (SD No. 7), RHP Jairo Iriarte (SD No. 8), RHP Steven Wilson

so Crochet and his one stellar half season shouldn’t net a Cease return

We don’t have a player in the 75-100 range …. So think Norby, Bradfield, Beavers, MecDermott, and  maybe Bryan Baker

But Sox fans will argue that’s he’s somehow worth more.

Some writers believe he'll be the best starter available and will net a much better return than you surmised.  You could be proven right, though, in time.  We'll see.

[Malike]

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't think people realize that Crochet possibly being available for a Kjerstad headed package is the discount. If he didn't come with the innings issues/injury history it would be significantly more. The guy is on pace to put up over 7 fWAR in 2024. You know how many put 7 fWAR in 2023? 0. You know how many put up 6 fWAR? 0. He's on pace to put up the best season by a starting pitcher since Corbin Burnes in 2021 where he put up a 1.63 FIP and 7.5 fWAR. Yeah, he'll probably be on an inning limit in 2024, but you'd still potentially have 2 years of a true ace. It's not like the Orioles are 2024 or bust.

I think the CWS should hang onto him and trade him in the off-season. They basically killed his real value by working him like a dog coming back from 12IP last year. Show he can get through the season healthy by letting him throw out of the pen or something, but teams that need legit SP help this year are probably not willing to pay what he'll cost.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Malike said:

I think the CWS should hang onto him and trade him in the off-season. They basically killed his real value by working him like a dog coming back from 12IP last year. Show he can get through the season healthy by letting him throw out of the pen or something, but teams that need legit SP help this year are probably not willing to pay what he'll cost.

It's a risk on their end for sure if they wait rather than cash in now. I feel like if he gets through '24 unscathed and with this continued performance the ask is going to go up in in the offseason. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

I think the CWS should hang onto him and trade him in the off-season. They basically killed his real value by working him like a dog coming back from 12IP last year. Show he can get through the season healthy by letting him throw out of the pen or something, but teams that need legit SP help this year are probably not willing to pay what he'll cost.

You think it would have helped his value more by not being able to post up each turn and throw 6 effective innings?   I don’t think his value would be as high if he’d pitched half as many innings as he has.

The big question is if Crochet and his agent have an innings limit.  If they do then perhaps the WS goofed.  If they don’t I don’t think the WS goofed.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

It's a risk on their end for sure if they wait rather than cash in now. I feel like if he gets through '24 unscathed and with this continued performance the ask is going to go up in in the offseason. 

I think it's the smart play for 2 reasons. 1. I think he'll get through the season healthy and 2. They'll actually get close to market value for him and they desperately need to hit on that trade. They know their guy, so if they believe they can get him through the season healthy, they could cash in on a franchise-changing type trade like Bedard was for the O's, etc. 

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

I think the CWS should hang onto him and trade him in the off-season. They basically killed his real value by working him like a dog coming back from 12IP last year. Show he can get through the season healthy by letting him throw out of the pen or something, but teams that need legit SP help this year are probably not willing to pay what he'll cost.

Who had even heard of this dude before this year?

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You think it would have helped his value more by not being able to post up each turn and throw 6 effective innings?   I don’t think his value would be as high if he’d pitched half as many innings as he has.

The big question is if Crochet and his agent have an innings limit.  If they do then perhaps the WS goofed.  If they don’t I don’t think the WS goofed.

I think the teams thinking about adding Crochet are most likely not thinking, wow, Crochet has started 19 games after throwing 12 innings last year! They are most likely thinking, wow, Crochet has started 19 games after throwing 12 innings last year?

If you need SP help right now, you're going to have a hard time finding many people who think he's going to make another 10-12 starts this season and then pitch in the playoffs.

It's basically mentioned in every article linked to Crochet so it's not like there is a secret conspiracy here.

[Greg Pappas]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Who had even heard of this dude before this year?

My intention is not to seem insulting, but most knowledgeable MLB fans.  Orioles fans that follow mainly their own team, perhaps not. 

Edited July 10 by Greg Pappas

[Malike]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Who had even heard of this dude before this year?

Most people? Not many players go from the draft to the MLB team in the same year. He was a top 100 prospect and the 6th best pitching prospect in baseball. He didn't come out of nowhere, he got hurt.

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Who had even heard of this dude before this year?

He was actually a very highly thought of prospect who just couldn't stay healthy. He was the #11 overall pick in the 2020 draft. He came up to MLB that very same season out of the pen for the White Sox and was a dominant pen arm  in 2021. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

Most people? Not many players go from the draft to the MLB team in the same year. He was a top 100 prospect and the 6th best pitching prospect in baseball. He didn't come out of nowhere, he got hurt.

He had 54 really good innings out of the pen in 2021.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

He had 54 really good innings out of the pen in 2021.

Right, the only MiL time he's had was getting back from injury. It's not like he was 9th round pick that just blew up this year.

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

Most people? Not many players go from the draft to the MLB team in the same year. He was a top 100 prospect and the 6th best pitching prospect in baseball. He didn't come out of nowhere, he got hurt.

I guess what I'm asking is what would you have had the White Sox do? You say they "killed his value" by throwing him out there every 5 days but how much value would he have pitching 3 innings a week out of the bullpen instead? Some value certainly, but probably not a lot.

Basically the same point RZNJ made. 

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I guess what I'm asking is what would you have had the White Sox do? You say they "killed his value" by throwing him out there every 5 days but how much value would he have pitching 3 innings a week out of the bullpen instead? Some value certainly, but probably not a lot.

Basically the same point RZNJ made. 

I'm sure the CWS didn't think he was going to be Cy Young this year. He wanted to start, and they let him start after being only used as a reliever. I don't think they could have imagined he was going to be this good as a starter.

I don't think there are many instances of teams investing a ton in a player, even one not coming back from injury, and then throwing their arm off the same year they acquired him. CWS have the luxury of shelving him and still remaining the worst team in MLB, no pressure there. They don't have to trade him, if he gets through the season healthy, he'll be worth a lot more in the off-season.