I admit it--I gave up

[tntoriole]

17 hours ago, dystopia said:

Low line drives are tricky for outfielders. He's not the first outfielder to misjudge that type of hit. 

Not routine. But catchable. 

It happens… on hot sunny high sky days .. he read it as sinking and wanted to prevent a loss by having it dropping in front and instead it sailed. 

[Il BuonO]

17 hours ago, dystopia said:

Definitely catchable, though not a routine play at all. 

The 99% catch probability says otherwise.

[dystopia]

14 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

The 99% catch probability says otherwise.

Good thing statcast catch probability is garbage then, isn’t it?

For f***s sake people, use your damn eyes. There’s no way that ball is caught 99% of the time, it’s so absurd. *Maybe* 80%. 

[mall-O-cup]

56 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Good thing statcast catch probability is garbage then, isn’t it?

For f***s sake people, use your damn eyes. There’s no way that ball is caught 99% of the time, it’s so absurd. *Maybe* 80%. 

All of which made me wonder earlier in the thread what it would have looked like if he hadn't broken in at first.

I'm glad he did though. I've watched that replay countless times.  

[G54377]

I think this is the type of flyball statcast can't gauge accurately. It's looking at pure hangtime, distance, etc. The ball hit mostly right at Verdugo and the way it came off the bat it wasn't the easiest read. Most outfielders will make the catch, but not 99%. A 99% catch probability is the ball Mckenna dropped in Boston.

[Just Regular]

It starts a new Unswept streak at 1 series, though we were very, very lucky yesterday.    

It was basically Buckner kind of stuff two plays in a row.

[Emory Eagle]

Watching it off the bat, I was surprised by how far the ball carried.  Of course, I wasn't playing left field for the New York Yankees.  

[NashLumber]

Not sure if it's been covered, there's a strong honorable mention in the win yesterday.

If Adley had just gone into a trot on the ball Mountcastle hit to the SS, assuming it was an easy toss / gimme for the force out, the game would have ended there. But he went full steam and beat the late throw after the bobble. 

[ledzepp8]

3 hours ago, G54377 said:

I think this is the type of flyball statcast can't gauge accurately. It's looking at pure hangtime, distance, etc. The ball hit mostly right at Verdugo and the way it came off the bat it wasn't the easiest read. Most outfielders will make the catch, but not 99%. A 99% catch probability is the ball Mckenna dropped in Boston.

Yeah I don't really get it either. I would think a 99% catch probability would be something where it's right to the fielder and he doesn't even have to move. 

[ledzepp8]

1 hour ago, Emory Eagle said:

Watching it off the bat, I was surprised by how far the ball carried.  Of course, I wasn't playing left field for the New York Yankees.  

Yeah, off the bat I thought it was going to be a flare that would drop down in front of Verdugo. Which, I'm assuming he thought as well and the ball just seemed to carry.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

Yeah I don't really get it either. I would think a 99% catch probability would be something where it's right to the fielder and he doesn't even have to move. 

It's a 99% chance for a Major League fielder to make the play.  Not 99% for an average HS fielder.

[jabba72]

4 hours ago, dystopia said:

thing statcast catch probability is garbage then, isn’t it?

For f***s sake people, use your eyes. There’s no way that ball is caught 99% of the time, it’s so absurd. *Maybe* 80%. 

Agree,. That looked like a very difficult catch even if Verdugo reacted properly, But I didnt see video of his route once Mullins hit it.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, NashLumber said:

Not sure if it's been covered, there's a strong honorable mention in the win yesterday.

If Adley had just gone into a trot on the ball Mountcastle hit to the SS, assuming it was an easy toss / gimme for the force out, the game would have ended there. But he went full steam and beat the late throw after the bobble. 

Excellent point.

[Il BuonO]

10 hours ago, dystopia said:

Good thing statcast catch probability is garbage then, isn’t it?

For f***s sake people, use your damn eyes. There’s no way that ball is caught 99% of the time, it’s so absurd. *Maybe* 80%. 

You’re joking right? He broke in on a ball that was hit almost right at him. It was a terrible read. Period. Full stop.

Edited July 16 by Il BuonO

[Il BuonO]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's a 99% chance for a Major League fielder to make the play.  Not 99% for an average HS fielder.

I would have made that play in HS.