2024 2nd Round Pick (#61): Ethan Anderson - C - (Jr) Virginia (VA)

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have noticed that our rotation has the 7th best ERA in the major leagues.  Did you bother looking, or do you just go by your feelings?

7th and falling precipitously. 

That said, it's not Elias' fault that Bradish, Means, and Wells have gone down with injury. I have no real qualms with their draft strategy thus far. 

But Irvin has taken an enormous step back over the last month in both the rotation and the bullpen. Grayson is now alternating good and bad starts more frequently. Without big additions or turnarounds, I don't see this being a top 10 rotation for very long. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Otter said:

That's true, but that stat is also misleading.  Means (2.61 ERA) and Bradish (2.75 ERA) are gone and replaced by pitchers who no one expects to put up similar numbers the rest of the way.  Suarez and Irvin appear to be regressing as well, and Povich has been volatile.  Unless Elias brings in a good starter via trade, it's reasonable to project our rotation ERA will not be 7th best by the end of the year.

Let me be clear: I don’t think, as things stand, they’ll finish 7th.  They’re more likely to lose ground than gain it, due to the injuries we’ve suffered.   But many people act like our pitching is bad, and it just isn’t so.  It’s been WAY above average.  So I don’t buy the idea that Elias’ strategy has been bad.   

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

7th and falling precipitously. 

That said, it's not Elias' fault that Bradish, Means, and Wells have gone down with injury. I have no real qualms with their draft strategy thus far. 

But Irvin has taken an enormous step back over the last month in both the rotation and the bullpen. Grayson is now alternating good and bad starts more frequently. Without big additions or turnarounds, I don't see this being a top 10 rotation for very long. 

Like I just wrote, I think they’re more likely to drop than rise, due to the injuries.  But I’ll also say, baseball is difficult to predict.  Consider how Grayson and Kremer pitched before and after the all star break last year. It’s possible Irvin will suck all the second half, it’s also possible he’ll turn it around.  It’s possible Povich starts to “get it” the way Bradish did in the second half of 2022 and Grayson did last year.  I don’t assume that because they had a couple of shaky weeks in July that everything will collapse like a house of cards.    

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, panick said:

Really? Have you noticed the starting rotation we have now?

We are on pace for back to back 100 win seasons. We lead the division with a 96% chance of making the playoffs. There are only six teams head of us in starter ERA.

Burnes and Grayson are a credible 1-2. Suarez has a 2.83 ERA. Kremer is a solid 4. Irvin and Povich are solid 5 options.

I am assuming we will improve at the deadline. Yeah, I'd say it's working. 

[Hazmat]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We are on pace for back to back 100 win seasons. We lead the division with a 96% chance of making the playoffs. There are only six teams head of us in starter ERA.

Burnes and Grayson are a credible 1-2. Suarez has a 2.83 ERA. Kremer is a solid 4. Irvin and Povich are solid 5 options.

I am assuming we will improve at the deadline. Yeah, I'd say it's working. 

What's working?  Panick was referring to our draft strategy and our MLB pitching.  The only thing we can point to in the Elias era in terms of our draft strategy and pitching success at the MLB level is trading Ortiz (plus Hall) for a year of Burnes.  Lopez for Povich doesn't really align with our draft bats and trade for pitching strategy.

[interloper]

This pick is growing on me after sleeping on it. 

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

What's working?  Panick was referring to our draft strategy and our MLB pitching.  The only thing we can point to in the Elias era in terms of our draft strategy and pitching success at the MLB level is trading Ortiz (plus Hall) for a year of Burnes.  Lopez for Povich doesn't really align with our draft bats and trade for pitching strategy.

What's working is the strategy of drafting the best player available and using surplus assets to fill holes. 

[interloper]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

This pick is growing on me after sleeping on it. 

It's another one that strikes me as "extremely tradeable". If he can stick at catcher. Which, if you're a team with no catching talent, and this guy hits well and is passable defensively, he's probably a big upgrade on what you have. 

Edited July 15 by interloper

[Hazmat]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What's working is the strategy of drafting the best player available and using surplus assets to fill holes. 

What are the examples of using surplus assets to fill holes?  

Ortiz (and Hall) for Burnes

Hernaiz for Irvin

Prieto for Flaherty

Are we really able to draw a conclusion of success from these examples?  Perhaps, but I think you could make a case either way.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

What are the examples of using surplus assets to fill holes?  

Ortiz (and Hall) for Burnes

Hernaiz for Irvin

Prieto for Flaherty

Are we really able to draw a conclusion of success from these examples?  Perhaps, but I think you could make a case either way.

I think this is the first year where we will see if we use surplus to fill holes in a meaningful way.

Ortiz, Hernaiz, and Prieto definitely count though. Why wouldn't they? Flaherty wasn't a success, but it was a logical move to make. 

Edited July 15 by interloper

[Rbiggs2525]

3 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

What are the examples of using surplus assets to fill holes?  

Ortiz (and Hall) for Burnes

Hernaiz for Irvin

Prieto for Flaherty

Are we really able to draw a conclusion of success from these examples?  Perhaps, but I think you could make a case either way.

Pretty sure he refers to having the number 1 farm system in baseball while having the best record in baseball since the start of 2023.

[Rustbelt]

1 hour ago, Otter said:

I agree that it would be difficult to replace all these pitchers at once.  However, that's why many of us have been hoping Elias would have done a better job building up pitching depth in order to better handle the inevitable injuries.  We were very lucky last year with no major starting pitcher injuries, and this year the law of averages caught up to us.

Who can build the depth to withstand those losses?

[Tony-OH]

Switch-hitting catcher who is a bat first guy, but not terrible defensively apparently. 

Brett Cumberland was also a switch-hitting, hit first, catcher who was a second round pick. I'm not saying he's Cumberland, but there are some similarities from some of the write ups.

Again, I'd rather then go after some pitching and I think I've made my thoughts known on their lack of success with college hitters after the 1st round, but I'll go with Elias and crew know more about these guys then me.

But when some pitchers in the 3rd round are pitching in the majors out of this draft and he's stuck in AA, I'll have my concerns once again about the philosophy of avoiding pitchers and going college bats.

Saying that, outside of Basallo, the system does not have a real major league catching prospect. Handley has injury concerns and offensive issues, Ardoin couldn't hit water if he fell out of boat.

So if he can turn into a viable option to split time with Rutschman, then it ends up a good pick.

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

What are the examples of using surplus assets to fill holes?  

Ortiz (and Hall) for Burnes

Hernaiz for Irvin

Prieto for Flaherty

Are we really able to draw a conclusion of success from these examples?  Perhaps, but I think you could make a case either way.

The Burnes trade was a huge deal!!! Elias succeeded in bringing in an Ace that nobody was talking about, and without sacrificing any of our top five prospects. The Burnes deal marked a major pivot to competition mode! Fair to say we can't draw any conclusions yet but it seems the presumption is that Elias is clueless and we are screwed. Why would we assume the worst when so much is going right?

 

[Hazmat]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The Burnes trade was a huge deal!!! Elias succeeded in bringing in an Ace that nobody was talking about, and without sacrificing any of our top five prospects. The Burnes deal marked a major pivot to competition mode! Fair to say we can't draw any conclusions yet but it seems the presumption is that Elias is clueless and we are screwed. Why would we assume the worst when so much is going right?

 

I'm not in the "Elias is clueless" crowd, but one can reasonably advocate for a more balanced draft approach that includes more high-level pitching selections while still affording the ability to trade position player prospects for pitchers.