Jump to content

AL playoff picture


eddie83

Recommended Posts

59 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

The magic number is 4 vs the twins unless it ends in 3 way tie.  If we win today and Saturday that put us at 87-68 with 7 left so the worse we can do is 87-75.  That would give the Tigers 2 more losses putting them at 75 and if the Twins lose both they also have 75.   So even if the both win out it would be a 3 way tie it goes to head to head with 3 teams.  In that scenario the worse we could go is .500 and the tigers are already under .500 in that matchup.  If it goes to just us vs each team we would the tie breaker vs both of them with better record in divisions.  

Your last statement I dont believe is correct with a 2 way tie against the Tigers in this scenario. We would both be 87-75 and 30-22 in the division. It would then go to interdivison record, which I believe we would win by 2 games.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, RavensNOsGuy said:

Your last statement I dont believe is correct with a 2 way tie against the Tigers in this scenario. We would both be 87-75 and 30-22 in the division. It would then go to interdivison record, which I believe we would win by 2 games.

Yes I should have said by inter division we hold tie breaker on both if head to head.  3 way tie we would finish ahead of Tigers but behind Twins but still get in.   So the magic number is really 5 but with asterisk on that because it could be 4 with the right 2 wins vs Tigers or Twins.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Yes I should have said by inter division we hold tie breaker on both if head to head.  3 way tie we would finish ahead of Tigers but behind Twins but still get in.   So the magic number is really 5 but with asterisk on that because it could be 4 with the right 2 wins vs Tigers or Twins.  

Agreed. So to put it very simply, if we win 2/3 and the Twins lose 2/3 this weekend we are IN.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Tigers are a fun story, reminiscent of the ‘22 birds a little bit (if that team had had a CY winner heading the rotation). But we need to end the dream for them this weekend. Take care of business versus Detroit and next weeks games will hardly matter. We can get our staff set up for the WC series after their next turn. That would be ideal. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Fiver6565 said:

The Tigers are a fun story, reminiscent of the ‘22 birds a little bit (if that team had had a CY winner heading the rotation). But we need to end the dream for them this weekend. Take care of business versus Detroit and next weeks games will hardly matter. We can get our staff set up for the WC series after their next turn. That would be ideal. 

I like the '22 Orioles comp.   It kind of makes me wonder if Scott Harris went to talk to Tarik Skubal and the guys to apologize/put context on why the front office's decision was the club's on field performance wasn't good enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, RavensNOsGuy said:

Your last statement I dont believe is correct with a 2 way tie against the Tigers in this scenario. We would both be 87-75 and 30-22 in the division. It would then go to interdivison record, which I believe we would win by 2 games.

Odd we talking about this after being up like 15 games on them at one time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Posts

    • I imagine the goal is to get him available to just give them anything out of the pen in the wild card round. Depending on how that goes and if the O’s can advance who knows. 
    • The interesting thing about 1B is Mayo.     Elias keeps pushing Mayo at 3B.   But if Westburg is healthy he is better at 3B.   And they don't seem to play Mayo has much as they could at 1B where he might have a better chance at a regular job.    DH might be his best position. If Santander leaves, then Kjerstad probably gets an every day spot at RF.   Elias might want to see Kjerstad hit well in RF before he hands over 2B to Holliday.   Too many struggling rookies at the same time is not good for wins.   Mayo is  behind Kjerstad and Holliday IMO in getting a lot of playing time. However, developing Kjerstad, Holliday and Mayo  are key parts of the O's future no  matter how Elias develops them.
    • Walker is definitely an upgrade over Mountcastle.  Walker has cleared an .800 OPS the past three seasons.  Mountcastle has only done it once -- his rookie year.  Plus Mountcastle hasn't even cleared 20 homers since 2022.  Mountcastle is good in a platoon, used against lefties, but otherwise he's fallen off. Walker is 33, which is a bit of a risk, but which makes me think he could be had on a short term deal.  That said I think the O's will have competition for Walker.  He's one of the most underrated bats in the league.   If the O's think Kjerstad can play 1B then I think they should maybe go with him and look for a new RF (unless they bring back Santander, which seems more unlikely now).  But I don't know about Kjerstad's glove there. Mayo's glove at 1B may be even more questionable than Kjerstad's.  Plus Mayo just hasn't shown he's ready with his bat yet.  I'm against assuming guys will figure out how to hit MLB pitching within a presumed timeframe.  Mayo hasn't shown he's there yet.  Let him work his way into the lineup rather than giving him a starting job.  But with him there's also the issue of where his defense plays best, or if it plays anywhere.
    • So either Grayson won’t face hitters this year (ie he’s done for the year) or he’s in the pen.
    • I feel better after getting a W against the Giants; somewhere along the way I had stated I felt we almost had to get at least one from them, and now we have.  However, lets not act like this one win means the offense has broken its slump and we're suddenly going to start rolling.  I hope we do, but we're one bad game away from feeling like we'll never score a run again.  If we go down 3-0 or something early tonight, it will be hard to resist the doomsday feeling - we're just as likely to get one-hit or something stupid like that tonight as we are to score 5 or 6 runs.  Its a tough schedule to finish the season, tougher than maybe we would have thought with Detroit playing so well.  Still not counting my chickens but yeah that W yesterday changed the calculus a good bit in our favor.
    • Update: As expected, the corresponding move for Coulombe is Burch Smith, but he's going on the IL instead of being DFA'd. Right adductor/groin strain.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...