Would you trade Fabian for Kikuchi?

[OriolesMagic83]

37 minutes ago, Ceciltrav said:

Rather have Berrios

Yeah and I'd rather have Skubal but what does that have to do with this topic.

[LGOrioles]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree Irvin/Suarez are redundant but they are both out of options. They have both shown enough upside that it would suck to lose either of them or we will find ourselves in the same situation next year. And this is without Coulombe getting back in the mix. He would push out Perez. I don't know, I'm more inclined to go for quality over quantity so we're not losing guys who can help us, now and in the future.

I wouldn’t be happy about losing those guys because they are decent options as 5/6/7 starters if needed. But if it comes down to it, I’m not too stressed about losing one of them if it leads to a big upgrade, since Suarez is almost 35 and Irvin will be 31 next year. They likely aren’t getting much better than they are now. 

I don’t think Coulombe would come back until September though so they would have an extra pen spot, which wouldn’t affect Perez. Either way, if something happens with Coulombe where he isn’t 100% by playoffs, they’re screwed if Perez is their high leverage lefty. They should have room for all 3 by September. 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, LGOrioles said:

He has a 4.13 ERA and 4.8 WAR the last 2 years with more promising peripherals. Kremer has a 4.21 ERA the last 2 years with peripherals suggesting he’s more of a 4.50 ERA guy. I’d say he’s a pretty big upgrade but agree I would like someone better than him if they are just getting one starter. The wall would probably help him out a bit as well.

Have you looked at Kikuchi’s stat cast numbers?

The only thing he does well is gets strikeouts and limits walks. That’s what’s influencing the lowered xERA numbers. But if you look beyond that, you see that when he gets hit, (when batters make contact) he gets hit hard (especially his fastball).

In addition, he is not elite against LH batters. And some of the better left handed hitters in our division have pretty good numbers against him and have gone yard against him this season.

 

[LGOrioles]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Have you looked at Kikuchi’s stat cast numbers?

The only thing he does well is gets strikeouts and limits walks. That’s what’s influencing the lowered xERA numbers. But if you look beyond that, you see that when he gets hit, (when batters make contact) he gets hit hard (especially his fastball).

In addition, he is not elite against LH batters. And some of the better left handed hitters in our division have pretty good numbers against him and have gone yard against him this season.

 

Did you check Kremer’s? Kikuchi gives up much better quality of contact than Kremer does (although you are right that’s it not great), while getting more K’s, whiffs, and less walks. 

He has a near 6 K/BB rate against LHH which is very good to go along with .237 AVG and .293 wOBA. I’m sure guys like Soto and Devers have hit him hard but they hit pretty much everyone. 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Last I checked we were also the favorite to land Crochet and Miller. The odds are still low that we will get any particular one. +450 means the odds are actually like 4 to 1 against us getting him (and "any other team" is actually the "favorite"). 

I’m not a gambler, so I never understood the plus/minus stuff. A plus sign means the event is more unlikely than a Minus sign? So in a given game between Os and Yanks, Orioles -150 means the Os are favored in that game?

Thanks… now I can become addicted to gambling and lose my house.

Grateful!

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

I wouldn’t be happy about losing those guys because they are decent options as 5/6/7 starters if needed. But if it comes down to it, I’m not too stressed about losing one of them if it leads to a big upgrade, since Suarez is almost 35 and Irvin will be 31 next year. They likely aren’t getting much better than they are now. 

I don’t think Coulombe would come back until September though so they would have an extra pen spot, which wouldn’t affect Perez. Either way, if something happens with Coulombe where he isn’t 100% by playoffs, they’re screwed if Perez is their high leverage lefty. They should have room for all 3 by September. 

Irvin actually could have value as an extra piece in a bigger trade. MLers are almost always in larger deals and he would qualify as someone who could be in a deal, as even non contenders like cheap ML pitching that has had previous success.

[dystopia]

16 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

He has a 4.13 ERA and 4.8 WAR the last 2 years with more promising peripherals. Kremer has a 4.21 ERA the last 2 years with peripherals suggesting he’s more of a 4.50 ERA guy. I’d say he’s a pretty big upgrade but agree I would like someone better than him if they are just getting one starter. The wall would probably help him out a bit as well.

Career 4.6 ERA and not a small sample size. You can hang your hat on peripherals all you like but it’s not likely to translate into actual results. 

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, Warehouse said:

Yes, I wouldn’t hesitate. At a minimum, he upgrades the back-end of the rotation with  upside to be #3 playoff starter if playing well.  I’m not sure Fabian’s defense and baserunning are at the level of Bradfield/Honeycutt, so I’m not confident these aspects of his game are good enough to offset the strikeouts and popups.

I would still look to acquire another starter with multiple years of control. And I’m skeptical that Fabian is enough to get this deal done.

This. I'd prefer a better SP but he improves/adds depth to the rotation. 

#3 playoff spot is matchup dependent.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think he’s a lateral move. We currently have a rotation that includes Suarez and McDermott/Povich. Kikuchi is clearly better than McDermott/Povich the rest of the year. He’s also insurance for how much can Suarez hold up for?

Kikuchi is not the Bradish replacement. He’s a #3/4 on a playoff team. 

We need two SP to have a chance to win the division and a playoff series. Kikuchi is fine as the lesser half of the two SP puzzle pieces. 

Kikuchi is closer to a #4-5, but I’d be happy with him as the second SP. He would bump our #5 at least, and that has value for the balance of the season.

Questions: how would he fare in OPACY? 
And how is Fabian ranked right now? Would the Jays even want him?

[LGOrioles]

12 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Career 4.6 ERA and not a small sample size. You can hang your hat on peripherals all you like but it’s not likely to translate into actual results. 

Well his actual results the last 2 years are solid, and better than Kremer’s (much better by WAR). His results prior to that were not.

I would count on him being closer to his 2023-2024 results the remainder of this year than his 2019-2022 results. 

[sportsfan8703]

31 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

What wait?

Texas is 5 games out of the wild card. How did they get to skip all the way to the ALDS as our impending matchup?

Texas is not that good and I don’t think we need to try to worry about matching up against weaker/inferior opponents based on last season’s results/teams IMO.

There are several AL opponents that are better than Texas. Including 2 in our division, 3 in AL Central, and 2 in the AL West.

Texas is only 2.5 GB in the AL West. They get back Jung, Carter, DeGrom, Dunning, and Bradford, all in the next 2-3 weeks. 

The entire AL should be really worried about them. 

[LookitsPuck]

Kikuchi is a middle/back of the rotation arm that can sometimes (not often) flash top of the rotation stuff. He's a rental. 

In his last 12 starts:

• Went over 5 IP 3 times
• Allowed 3 ER or more runs in 7 of them
• 6.25 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 837 OPS
• 1.8 HR/9
• 1.491 WHIP

Jud Fabian is ranked #11 in the O's organization according to MLB.com. I'm admittedly higher on Fabian than others. That said, is there enough upside w/ Kikuchi? I really go back and forth. He's pitching to his career numbers currently. And, well, Kikuchi over 6 years has been worth 3 WAR. He's currently worth 0.3 and that number has been falling off a cliff lately.

Personally, I'd rather just give those starts to somebody else. He feels like somebody you trade for just to make a trade for. 

[interloper]

Yeah now that I'm thinking about it, I would probably change my vote to "no". 

I just don't want Kikuchi. Use Fabian in a package for someone better. 

[dystopia]

8 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Well his actual results the last 2 years are solid, and better than Kremer’s (much better by WAR). His results prior to that were not.

I would count on him being closer to his 2023-2024 results the remainder of this year than his 2019-2022 results. 

He had a career year last year and it still wasn’t anything earth shattering. His ERA+ of 89 this year is bad. His career ERA+ of 89 is bad. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Kikuchi is a middle/back of the rotation arm that can sometimes (not often) flash top of the rotation stuff. He's a rental. 

In his last 12 starts:

• Went over 5 IP 3 times
• Allowed 3 ER or more runs in 7 of them
• 6.25 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 837 OPS
• 1.8 HR/9
• 1.491 WHIP

Jud Fabian is ranked #11 in the O's organization according to MLB.com. I'm admittedly higher on Fabian than others. That said, is there enough upside w/ Kikuchi? I really go back and forth. He's pitching to his career numbers currently. And, well, Kikuchi over 6 years has been worth 3 WAR. He's currently worth 0.3 and that number has been falling off a cliff lately.

Personally, I'd rather just give those starts to somebody else. He feels like somebody you trade for just to make a trade for. 

The alternative to Kikuchi would be Tyler Anderson. But that costs $$$. I’ll believe we are spending when I see it.