Donta Williams release and why Elias needs to adjust his draft philosophy

[Tony-OH]

The Orioles released Donta Williams most likely to make playing time for Bradfield and Josenberger. While the 25-year old Williams was certainly a miss as a 4th round pick back in 2021, his release came after him putting up one of his best weeks of his career offensively slashing .450/.577/.550/1.127 in his last 7 days. I'm a little surprised they didn't just send him to AAA as outfielder depth since he's a pretty good defensive outfielder.

(Edit: Before I get started, I have a more detailed response below to this issue. This is not based solely on the miss of Donta Williams and the oversite of a few pitching misses in this round).

A low ceiling college outfielder, Williams was selected and paid an under slot $400K. Seven picks later the Mariners took Texas A&M right-hander Bryce Miller and paid him an under slot 400K. Three more picks later the Brewers selected Logan Henderson ($495K) who just made his AAA debut and has put up good minor league numbers. With the last pick of the draft, the Astros selected a guy named Chayce McDermott and signed him for $375k. 

At the end of the day, every college pitcher that signed for under $500K that were selected in the 4th round after Williams were much better pros with several already pitching in the majors. The money saved from Cowser as well as Williams was put into over slot guys like John Rhodes (another bust) and Creed Williams (to early to call). Let's not even mentioned that Mason Miller was selected 21 picks AFTER Rhodes and only signed for $599k.

Yes, I know you can do this with a lot of drafts, but at the end of the day, that 2021 draft looks like a whole lot of nothing after Cowser and Norby.

The upper level of the minors do not have a single drafted and developed pitcher ready to make a contribution to this 2024 team. If Elias is going to continue to take college bats over pitchers, like he did once again in 2024, he's going to need to start hitting on more of them after the 2nd round. 

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Thanks for the work.

[sportsfan8703]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The Orioles released Donta Williams most likely to make playing time for Bradfield and Josenberger. While the 25-year old Williams was certainly a miss as a 4th round pick back in 2021, his release came after him putting up one of his best weeks of his career offensively slashing .450/.577/.550/1.127 in his last 7 days. I'm a little surprised they didn't just send him to AAA as outfielder depth since he's a pretty good defensive outfielder.

A low ceiling college outfielder, Williams was selected and paid an under slot $400K. Seven picks later the Mariners took Texas A&M right-hander Bryce Miller and paid him an under slot 400K. Three more picks later the Brewers selected Logan Henderson ($495K) who just made his AAA debut and has put up good minor league numbers. With the last pick of the draft, the Astros selected a guy named Chayce McDermott and signed him for $375k. 

At the end of the day, every college pitcher that signed for under $500K that were selected in the 4th round after Williams were much better pros with several already pitching in the majors. The money saved from Cowser as well as Williams was put into over slot guys like John Rhodes (another bust) and Creed Williams (to early to call). Let's not even mentioned that Mason Miller was selected 21 picks AFTER Rhodes and only signed for $599k.

Yes, I know you can do this with a lot of drafts, but at the end of the day, that 2021 draft looks like a whole lot of nothing after Cowser and Norby.

The upper level of the minors do not have a single drafted and developed pitcher ready to make a contribution to this 2024 team. If Elias is going to continue to take college bats over pitchers, like he did once again in 2024, he's going to need to start hitting on more of them after the 2nd round. 

 

 

 

I think we sold low on Norby, and bought high on Rogers.  But, we had to because of all of the injuries.  Maybe we'd be viewing this a bit different if Norby was a plug and play 3B right now after the Westburg injury?  

Williams, Rhodes, and Trimble, were big misses in this draft, but Cowser, Norby, and Cook, were hits.  Also, Willems still could be an everyday C somewhere.  

We definitely need some more pitching, but I cant fault Elias for sticking to what he knows best and trying to develop bats to buy arms.  Let's hope Rubenstein lets Elias pump some FA bucks into the MLB rotation, and that will allow Elias not to be so risk adverse with pitching.  

Cook to the Pirates for Bailey is an under the radar move.  

[Hazmat]

Whatever became of Trenton Craig?

[bpilktree67]

I don't think looking at one guy that didn't work out should signify they need to change a strategy.  They clearly think it is easier to find a positional prospect that can help there team or can be a piece in a trade for a pitcher and help the big club more.  In that same draft the took Billy Cook in the 10th round and developed him enough to turn him into a solid pitching prospect that was drafted in the 5th round a year later.  Many teams have a specific strategy with young players and what they can do to help them get better and then help their organization either if it by playing for them or by using them in a trade.   The organization seems to believe through data that you can hit a much higher percentage of positional picks then pitchers for guys 18-21.  So they draft them and then use the excess to acquire pitchers that fit their analytics when they are major leaguers.  

[Aristotelian]

I'd like to see us draft more pitchers but one 4th round miss does nothing to disprove the strategy. 

Miller is by far the best of the 15 pitchers taken that round (McDermott is probably the second best). Maybe we take Miller, but the odds are high that we take another guy who is also a miss.

[Say O!]

I also find it super interesting that Elias subsequently traded for two pitchers from this draft in Povich (pick 98), and McDermott (pick 132).

[Aristotelian]

Edit: Donta is one 4th round data point. Coby Mayo and Joey Ortiz would be others. 

[86this]

35 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Whatever became of Trenton Craig?

He was released on March 28, 2024.

[sportsfan8703]

13 minutes ago, Say O! said:

I also find it super interesting that Elias subsequently traded for two pitchers from this draft in Povich (pick 98), and McDermott (pick 132).

In several small trades we traded for a bunch of pitchers from the 2019 draft.  Obviously, there wasn't much from the 2020 draft.  Which shows that we trust our analytics at the milb level more so than the amateur level.  At least that is my takeaway.  

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

Williams, Rhodes, and Trimble, were big misses in this draft, but Cowser, Norby, and Cook, were hits.  Also, Willems still could be an everyday C somewhere.  

 

I'm still not totally giving up on Trimble.  He's having a decent season at Aberdeen.  He just hasn't been able to stay on the field.  I'd like to see them push him to Bowie given his age though.

[now]

It's not like they hit on any of the pitchers they drafted, either. Gillespie, Baumler, Tavera, McLean, Bright, Weston, Baumeister, Lord, Sharkey, Fruit... though Baumeister helped land Eflin and you've got Weston and Bright in your top 15 (hard to say if we can count any Major Leaguers after our top 10 anymore, though!).

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, bpilktree67 said:

I don't think looking at one guy that didn't work out should signify they need to change a strategy.  They clearly think it is easier to find a positional prospect that can help there team or can be a piece in a trade for a pitcher and help the big club more.  In that same draft the took Billy Cook in the 10th round and developed him enough to turn him into a solid pitching prospect that was drafted in the 5th round a year later.  Many teams have a specific strategy with young players and what they can do to help them get better and then help their organization either if it by playing for them or by using them in a trade.   The organization seems to believe through data that you can hit a much higher percentage of positional picks then pitchers for guys 18-21.  So they draft them and then use the excess to acquire pitchers that fit their analytics when they are major leaguers.  

I've been consistent on this messaging and HAS NOTHING to do with just one player. I used this as an example because it was a good opportunity to speak facts about this situation once again. Elias went with a low-ceiling college bat who's upside was a 4th outfielder instead of going for arms. 

I realize that some people like yourself will always give Elias/SIGBOT the benefit of the doubt. That is your right. But as Elias consistently misses with his college bats after the 2nd round and his system is bereft of pitching talent, at the end of the day is he's going to run out of tradable bats for arms.

And besides, most teams are not going to trade good young pitching because of the attrition of pitchers. 

The fact is that he's never drafted and developed one single major league pitcher and has been drafted since 2019. That's literally almost impossible unless they literally have no idea what to look for in pitchers they draft. Elias absolutely hit it out of the park with his 1st round picks and a lot of his 2nd round picks while drafting at the top of those round, now he no longer has that luxury and he must start hitting on guys lower in those rounds. 

He can't keep putting all his eggs in one basket because giving up 6-years of control of a player (Ortiz) and 5 years of a pitcher (Hall, who was a Rajsich selection out of high school) for one year of an impact starting pitcher is not sustainable. 

Even the Eflin trade, which looks to be a good one, cost the Orioles a decent amount of prospect draft capital including the highest pitcher ever selected by Elias (Baumeister). 

We have yet to see him trade an impact hitting prospects for an impact pitching prospect because very few teams are going to give up those pitchers because of the attrition and cost of free agent pitchers. 

All of the impact players currently on the Orioles were high 1st round, or very beginning of the 2nd round selections. 

The Orioles are in a different phase and Elias needs to adjust his drafting philosophy. But I'll be honest here, I personally don't think Elias/Sig's system is able to evaluate pitchers very well, especially those out of the amateur ranks. 

Basically of all his drafts and trades for minor leaguers, they've identified and developed ONE major league starter in Kyle Bradish. If you add in Cano that's two impact pitchers. 

Maybe we can conclude that their system does not do a good job of identifying talent because it looks for velocity, pitch shapes, and spin, and doesn't weigh command and consistency high enough. 

Even Povich and McDermott are the same type of guys. 

If you're not questioning his draft strategy and scouting of pitching by now, you never will. 

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Edit: Donta is one 4th round data point. Coby Mayo and Joey Ortiz would be others. 

You really have missed the point. It's ok, I realize it's not popular to question Elias to some around here.

Williams was a data point to continue comments I've made all over this board about Elias' inability to identify, draft and or develop major league pitching. Perhaps I should have been more clear that this was just one point, but I doubt it would have changed your response. 

Some folks will always have a canned excuse ready. 

[Tony-OH]

45 minutes ago, now said:

It's not like they hit on any of the pitchers they drafted, either. Gillespie, Baumler, Tavera, McLean, Bright, Weston, Baumeister, Lord, Sharkey, Fruit... though Baumeister helped land Eflin and you've got Weston and Bright in your top 15 (hard to say if we can count any Major Leaguers after our top 10 anymore, though!).

I like Weston a bit (Need to see him against AAA hitters and his statcast info before getting too excited), and Forret, who they pretty much "lucked upon" in the 14th round. Bright has reliever vibes, but right now, until I can put the 2024 draft picks in (they need to play in a game to qualify for power rankings) the system is not nearly as strong as some people still to think so these guys are higher than they should be.