If Mateo gets an operation elbow does that lead to Orioles leaving him of the 40 man this offseason?

[survivedc]

44 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

If you exclude his 2022 outlier season, Mateo has been worth a combined 1.7 rWAR/1.6 fWAR for his entire career, and $2.7 million is what he is making in 2024. That number will go up in 2025.

That sure sounds like a non-tender candidate to me.

You also seem to have missed the part of my post about his recovery time and prognosis factoring into the final decision. If he is going to be out recovering from major elbow surgery until June or July, then we could probably invest the $3.5 million or so that he will make next year on someone who will provide more than like 0.4 WAR to the 2025 team.

Curious why you exclude that year? It isn’t like he was cheating or the rules changed. It’s the one season he played as a starter and he showed what he can do. Even this year he was on pace for ~1.5ish WAR playing ~2/3rd of the games. Definite value there and shows 2022 not to be some crazy unheard of year.

[wildcard]

On 8/25/2024 at 4:28 PM, Sports Guy said:

Holliday is going to be an every game type guy.

At first that will depend on how he hits lefties.  Over time he will hit everyday.

Edited August 29 by wildcard

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

If he gets non tendered i would think it would be injury related. Heck, they tendered him after last years disaster. Was paying much better this year. Dont confuse anybody's defense at 2nd with Mateo, plus can back up SS. Big speed. He was a nice piece fo us.

That is what I originally said- that it would probably hinge on his health prognosis.

If he is going to be a full go for ST, then sure, tender him a contract, but if he is going to miss the first 2 or 3 months of the season, then that money should probably be invested somewhere else.

But even if he wasn't injured, non-tendering him would still be a perfectly defensible choice, IMO. Glove-only utility bench guys are pretty fungible.

1 minute ago, survivedc said:

Curious why you exclude that year? It isn’t like he was cheating or the rules changed. It’s the one season he played as a starter and he showed what he can do. Even this year he was on pace for ~1.5ish WAR playing ~2/3rd of the games. Definite value there and shows 2022 not to be some crazy unheard of year.

Because he was never that good (a 3.6/2.8 WAR player) before and hasn't been that good since, and he is extremely unlikely to ever be that good again. 

Also, see above reply to Safelykept.

 

[Just Regular]

I don't think he or Urias are tendered, and Elias may have been surprised some last winter by how much the market fell on guys like Amed Rosario.

Ideally Westburg, Gunnar, Holliday and Mayo are 150-game infielders.     With Stowers and Santander gone, a luxury bench salary spot maybe gets allocated to OF4 first.

I was glad to hear the report from Elias Q&A the Club a Player was injured with has some role seeing through their rehab even if they aren't employed by that Club any longer.

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

At first that will depend on how he hits lefties.  Overtime time he will hit everyday.

He’s going to be like Gunnar. They are going to throw him out there everyday regardless of results because they know they will come.

[sportsfan8703]

We could release Mateo right before OD and only owe him 20% of his arbitration figure.

Let’s say he gets $4 million in arb. That’s an 800k insurance policy. It’s well worth it and he’ll be back. 

[ThomasTomasz]

15 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Couldn't we put him on the 60 day IL?

60 Day DL ends with the season, so he has to stay on the 40 man roster during the off-season.  Same for pitchers undergoing TJ, so we also have a decision to make on Tyler Wells, and this also plays a factor in re-signing John Means if they go down that road.  

As for the post topic itself, this is an interesting question.  I think it’s more likely we keep Mateo than Urias.  Mateo is a better defender, and able to also play SS and OF.  He’s also the pinch runner/defensive replacement as well as being a short-side platoon guy.  

[waroriole]

15 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

If you exclude his 2022 outlier season, Mateo has been worth a combined 1.7 rWAR/1.6 fWAR for his entire career, and $2.7 million is what he is making in 2024. That number will go up in 2025.

That sure sounds like a non-tender candidate to me.

You also seem to have missed the part of my post about his recovery time and prognosis factoring into the final decision. If he is going to be out recovering from major elbow surgery until June or July, then we could probably invest the $3.5 million or so that he will make next year on someone who will provide more than like 0.4 WAR to the 2025 team.

Why do people do this nonsense of “if you take away the times he was really good, he’s not very good?” 
 

It’s either Mateo or Urias back next year in the UTIL role. A 4M price for Mateo is a bit much, but I don’t see a lot of spending coming in other areas. I could see them bringing Mateo back next year, assuming he’s healthy. 

[Warehouse]

Mateo is a true utility guy with the tools to be plus at every position except catcher.  He has blazing speed so adds value as a pinch runner.  He can put up a .300+ wOBA against LHP.  

We don’t have cheap internal options to backfill at utility IF, so we would need to find a free agent. Maybe we can find an Amed Rosario who is cheap and gives us good enough performance, but odds are against it.

I think if Mateo is healthy, he returns.

[interloper]

He's not going anywhere. We need infielders and especially those who can play SS. I think the Os will gladly pay $3 million to stash Mateo on the 60-day IL. I don't think there's any question that we will need him at some point next year.

Edited August 26 by interloper

[HowAboutThat]

Mateo’s sprint speed remains top 5%, his glove is better than anybody we’ve had since Paul Janish ( who couldn’t hit his shoe size) and he’s not a waste at the plate. 
If he goes, how easily could Elias find someone with equal skill? Not very easily.

He returns. That’s a no brainer.

Urias is a more open question.

[Frobby]

As an aside, why is it taking so long for Mateo to decide if an operation on his elbow is necessary?   It’s been more than a month since he got injured.  

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As an aside, why is it taking so long for Mateo to decide if an operation on his elbow is necessary?   It’s been more than a month since he got injured.  

Apparently they are still waiting for the inflammation to die down. 

[maybenxtyr]

50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As an aside, why is it taking so long for Mateo to decide if an operation on his elbow is necessary?   It’s been more than a month since he got injured.  

I thought I read something yesterday that the Dr's are the ones waiting. 

[FlaO'sFan]