Who starts the first playoff game?

[Billy F-Face3]

Burnes needs a quick rest to reset his arm, kind of like Eflin got.  The issue Burnes is having is that his cutter/slider isn't moving as much as it used to, so he's got to find a way to get his spin and movement back. That might require some arm rest and recovery. He's been a workhorse since game 1 of this season for us. Maybe he's just fatigued.

[ShoelesJoe]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does it mater that he allowed three HR in his playoff start last year?

The primary argument FOR Burnes being our game 1 starter is how good he's been in the past. That makes the 3 HRs allowed in his most recent playoff start highly relevant. If you want to argue his performance in that game doesn't matter in the here and now then you have to make your judgement based on his performance in the here and now, which quite frankly isn't very good. 

Unless Burnes gets hurt I do expect him to be our game 1 starter because it's the safe and expected choice. Going with anybody else will leave the manager / GM open to second guessing should things go south, and IMO most people would rather make the safe decision than the right decision. It's just human nature. 

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, ShoelesJoe said:

The primary argument FOR Burnes being our game 1 starter is how good he's been in the past. That makes the 3 HRs allowed in his most recent playoff start highly relevant. If you want to argue his performance in that game doesn't matter in the here and now then you have to make your judgement based on his performance in the here and now, which quite frankly isn't very good. 

Unless Burnes gets hurt I do expect him to be our game 1 starter because it's the safe and expected choice. Going with anybody else will leave the manager / GM open to second guessing should things go south, and IMO most people would rather make the safe decision than the right decision. It's just human nature. 

I do agree that most managers will make the “safe” choice in situations like this. I’m having a hard time seeing that there’s a clear “right” decision that’s different than the “safe” choice here, though.

I can only assume Eflin is the other meaningful option. But he got rocked last postseason as well, as bad as Burnes did. 

Burnes has been the better pitcher over the course of their similarly long careers. He’s been the better pitcher over the course of this season. He’s been the better career postseason pitcher. 

Eflin has been better over the last month or so. 

That’s pretty much the tale of the tape, I think. Unless Eflin continues to deal through season’s end and Burnes continues to scuffle, I’m not sure it’s really a tricky decision at all.

[HowAboutThat]

For the me, the problem is he doesn’t worry about holding runners. And our catchers don’t throw out runners very well. He has no interest in controlling the running game. 
And it’s really that he just doesn’t seem to care. I’m positive that he’s been “spoken to” and I’m equally positive that he replied that he doesn’t care. Or he does care and he’s just terrible at it.

[phxosfan]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does it mater that he allowed three HR in his playoff start last year?

I'm not the one pumping him up like he has a great post season track record. That was for the benefit of those that do.

[Wavetrapper]

On 9/2/2024 at 10:01 PM, Billy F-Face3 said:

Burnes needs a quick rest to reset his arm, kind of like Eflin got.  The issue Burnes is having is that his cutter/slider isn't moving as much as it used to, so he's got to find a way to get his spin and movement back. That might require some arm rest and recovery. He's been a workhorse since game 1 of this season for us. Maybe he's just fatigued.

I made the suggestion on here that he skip the White Sox start, get some rest to reset.  Let Young have a spot start.   No one seemed to think that was a good idea.  

He didn’t look sharp during most of the outing.  I wish they had given him a rest as you suggest.  It would have been the perfect opportunity.  Maybe they can find a way to rest him at some point.  

In their defense, the Kremer injury may have scrambled whatever plans they may have had 

 

 

[birds future is BRIGHT]

Eflin

[Just Regular]

It feels good to vent frustration, but a guess is even Zach Eflin wants Corbin Burnes to start Game 1.

We're on honeymoon with Austin Slater relative to Hays as a player getting their role, and sort of the same deal here.

Now if Grayson Rodriguez dominates the Yankees and one other opponent in the next few weeks...but we know he probably won't.

The boldest move after Sunday would be if Burnes needs the IL with inflammation, and anticipated return date about 9/24.     He'd still get 30 starts and what's the difference between 30 and 32?     The regular season game is quality not quantity of innings, and quantity not quality of individual pitchers until those formalities are finished and the best 7 pitchers on each playoff club do their stuff.

[dystopia]

If Burnes finishes strong he starts game 1, no question. If he finishes mediocre to decent he probably starts game 1 as well.

[glenn__davis]

On 9/3/2024 at 12:18 AM, HowAboutThat said:

For the me, the problem is he doesn’t worry about holding runners. And our catchers don’t throw out runners very well. He has no interest in controlling the running game. 
And it’s really that he just doesn’t seem to care. I’m positive that he’s been “spoken to” and I’m equally positive that he replied that he doesn’t care. Or he does care and he’s just terrible at it.

I think it's the latter.  One of my frustrations with him with the run game lately is that he throws over too much.  He's constantly making 2 throws over to first.  This gives the runner a huge advantage and is almost a guaranteed successful steal.  

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

I think it's the latter.  One of my frustrations with him with the run game lately is that he throws over too much.  He's constantly making 2 throws over to first.  This gives the runner a huge advantage and is almost a guaranteed successful steal.  

If I’m the runner, I’m going to run on a breaking ball and a good runner can anticipate when the off speed stuff will come in a sequence.

But Burnes knows that as well, and also knows whether the runner likes to steal. So why not throw a pitchout on the likely pitch? The runner is expecting a slow pitch, because it’s the expected point in the sequence, and Burnes knows it, instead throws a pitchout, and the runner gets caught, if the play is executed well.

this are all gambles, but reasonable ones. And even if he burns a pitch on the pitchout and the runner doesn’t go, the alternative is doing nothing and surrendering the base.

I really don’t understand why runners aren’t running as much as they should be.

The new rules make stealing easier, but it shouldn’t be this easy.

[HowAboutThat]

To the original question: if Eflin continues his dominance, there’s no doubt he should start game 1.

Whether he will is another question entirely.

[RVAOsFan]

With as reactionary as this group can be I am surprised no votes for Povich in the last 8 hours. 

[Moose Milligan]

Also, a lot of this might come down to if we win the division or not and if we get a break before our first round of the playoffs.  If it comes down to the final game of the season and we're trying to win the division and lose, we might not get to set the rotation the way we want it.   

For me, right now, if I had to pick based on who's performing the best lately, it's Eflin.  That could change come playoff time.

[Three Run Homer]

If Burnes pitches well in September, it will be Burnes.  If he continues to pitch like he pitched in August, it will be Eflin.  

Eflin-Suarez-Grayrod is a good big three for this year and next.