Will the Orioles make the playoffs?

[LA2]

51 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Catching up on School of Roch this morning. He wrote something I didn't realize was true. The O's last 3 postseason appearances: 

• 2014 Division Series - Swept by the Royals
• 2016 WC Playoff - Lost to the Blue Jays
• 2023 Division Series - Swept by the Rangers

That's an 8-game losing streak in the postseason. Yikes.

We're like the new Twins or Blue Jays of the last few years that have/had a lot of young talent but underperformed in the postseason. Hope that's not our ceiling. 

[PauleeWalnuts]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

Catching up on School of Roch this morning. He wrote something I didn't realize was true. The O's last 3 postseason appearances: 

• 2014 Division Series - Swept by the Royals
• 2016 WC Playoff - Lost to the Blue Jays
• 2023 Division Series - Swept by the Rangers

That's an 8-game losing streak in the postseason. Yikes.

Part of the reason I'm having trouble purchasing playoff tix. I can't stomach another postseason loss in person.

I was so hyped up for game 1 of the Rangers series last year I was devastated on the drive home.

[Sports Guy]

Royals are in an interesting spot. As of right now, Lugo is scheduled to pitch Saturday and Ragans on Sunday. That would mean Lugo doesn’t pitch until game 3 and Ragans wouldn’t pitch at all (at least not as a starter).

Im sure the hope is they have a spot locked up but that’s far from a certainty. 

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Royals are in an interesting spot. As of right now, Lugo is scheduled to pitch Saturday and Ragans on Sunday. That would mean Lugo doesn’t pitch until game 3 and Ragans wouldn’t pitch at all (at least not as a starter).

Im sure the hope is they have a spot locked up but that’s far from a certainty. 

I hope they rebound and claim the spot because if those two guys aren’t available, they are who I want to face. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

Catching up on School of Roch this morning. He wrote something I didn't realize was true. The O's last 3 postseason appearances: 

• 2014 Division Series - Swept by the Royals
• 2016 WC Playoff - Lost to the Blue Jays
• 2023 Division Series - Swept by the Rangers

That's an 8-game losing streak in the postseason. Yikes.

He's absolutely right, but of course, anything prior to the 2023 sweep means nothing to this current squad. 

Last year we got a glimpse into this team with pressure. We all, including me, pointed towards their inexperience, but now we have a 2nd half of a season with mostly the same players wilting under pressure. Whether that pressure be because of the game situation, expectations, trying to do too much with other players out, or whatever, we have another data point of this current team struggling when it matters.

Now, barring a complete a total collapse by the Orioles over the last two series of the year (not out of the question but the that the Royals and Twins are crashing too make it almost assured this team will back into the playoffs), this team is going to the playoffs.

This will be the real test because gone are the excuses of injury with Westburg, Urias, Coulombe and Webb back and the team will most likely face another struggling wild card team. That should give some hope that this team will win at least a game, and maybe a series if things go right. 

Crazier things have happened before in the playoffs, but only a miracle World Series appearance would be able to overcome this frustrating season and end the discussion over the lack of clutch of this core group of players.

[JR Oriole]

I think a lot of fans frustration (well, at least mine) comes from a combination of this specific team and history. 

This 2024 team has been extremely frustrating.  It is factually true that in the last 106 games they have only one walk-off win and only two wins when trailing after 6 innings. They have no series wins against an over .500 team since July 4th, and the worst record in the AL East since June 20. They cannot put together any long winning streaks, they have a real hard time generating a "big" inning, their all-star catcher has had an extremely disappointing second half, and their prized rookies have been far worse than anyone could have imagined.  So this has been without question a three-month plus malaise that feels like it just won't end.  Every time we want to feel enthusiastic or excited, we get shut down by a punch in the gut like Saturday and Sunday. The injuries have undoubtedly played a role, but I don't buy that they should have played this much of a role. Especially not on offense.

The history part of it does not relate to the current team, but is a real pain point for fans like me who have been around for decades.  This organization last won an LCS game on October 13, 1997.  Almost 27 years since their last single game win in the LCS. Think about that and how much life has passed since that time.  Over those 27 years, 22 different fanbases have experienced their team in the World Series at least once.  If we go back to the last time the Orioles won the pennant, we can add another 4 fanbases to the list of World Series participants.  I think a 3 game sweep in last year's playoffs hurts us far more than it would Red Sox fans or Cardinals fans or Dodgers fans who are there regularly.  We have far fewer bites at the apple than most other fans, and every opportunity lost just resonates that much more.  

No one should ever think the Orioles fans are spoiled, regardless of how much we may complain.  We are among the least spoiled fanbases not only in baseball, but in all of professional sports.  

[Just Regular]

Frank "teaching them how to win" is such a famous story in franchise history it is natural to wonder if this group needs that same guy, with Manny Machado a fairy tale guy if you happen to be more invested in players who played townball for your town for awhile.

Who on the 1964-65 Orioles didn't know how to win?

fWAR suggests the Bats leaders those years were Brooks, Boog and Aparicio, and the Arms leaders were Pappas, Bunker, Barber and McNally.

We're blessed with two franchise caliber young guys right now.    Who's winning skill is most in need of bolstering?    Are Gunnar and Adley as bad as Brooks and Boog?

If you aren't more invested in players who played townball for your town but are more invested in players you scientifically decided on and won championships for you, that's why I think if Elias recommends a very big contract to any free agent this winter, Bregman has an edge on Burnes and Santander.    About once a decade we get some kind of Albert Belle or Miguel Tejada or Chris Davis thing around here.

[Spy Fox]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

If you aren't more invested in players who played townball for your town but are more invested in players you scientifically decided on and won championships for you, that's why I think if Elias recommends a very big contract to any free agent this winter, Bregman has an edge on Burnes and Santander.    About once a decade we get some kind of Albert Belle or Miguel Tejada or Chris Davis thing around here.

Would the Crawford Box -> Walltimore shift torpedo Bregman's power though? 

His slugging is super dependent on fly balls down the LF line. Even if many of these would have been out of Camden, I'd worry they turn into warning track flyouts as bat speed declines. 

[CTBear]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

Would the Crawford Box -> Walltimore shift torpedo Bregman's power though? 

His slugging is super dependent on fly balls down the LF line. Even if many of these would have been out of Camden, I'd worry they turn into warning track flyouts as bat speed declines. 

I’ve gotta think the LF gets smoothed out during the planned renovations, whether that happens this offseason or the following (I think Rubenstein said 2026 is when most renovations will be done and 2025 will be some of the low hanging fruit like sound/video). 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

He's absolutely right, but of course, anything prior to the 2023 sweep means nothing to this current squad. 

Last year we got a glimpse into this team with pressure. We all, including me, pointed towards their inexperience, but now we have a 2nd half of a season with mostly the same players wilting under pressure. Whether that pressure be because of the game situation, expectations, trying to do too much with other players out, or whatever, we have another data point of this current team struggling when it matters.

Now, barring a complete a total collapse by the Orioles over the last two series of the year (not out of the question but the that the Royals and Twins are crashing too make it almost assured this team will back into the playoffs), this team is going to the playoffs.

This will be the real test because gone are the excuses of injury with Westburg, Urias, Coulombe and Webb back and the team will most likely face another struggling wild card team. That should give some hope that this team will win at least a game, and maybe a series if things go right. 

Crazier things have happened before in the playoffs, but only a miracle World Series appearance would be able to overcome this frustrating season and end the discussion over the lack of clutch of this core group of players.

So if they beat whoever they play in the WC round and then beat the Yankees to get to the ALCS but lose, you won’t be over the frustrating  season?

[turtlebowl]

13 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I didn't watch a pitch Sunday after that Saturday debacle. I had a charity ride to attend anyways, but I was not wasting a Sunday on this 2024 squad. 

I'll probably watch some of the Yankees game, but my heart is out of this squad. I still want them to win, but they have given me no reason since May to think this team has any special abilities. 

Injuries hurt them for sure, but they just don't have that "it" factor. They have the choke factor down pat though. I can deal with a bad team. Hell, I ran this place through the darkest, leanest years. 

But what I can't deal with is an anti-clutch team. This is a team that can look victory in the face and find a way to lose. This is team with no ability to finish off a comeback. 

Hell, even in their walk offs it's after their relievers choked away a lead. 

The lack of hitting is boring. The lack of situational hitting is boring. The strikeout/homerun all or nothing approach is boring. The fact that they no longer steal bases or put pressure on the defense unless you count Masolino getting guys thrown out by 10 feet, is boring.

The fact that both of their super prospects not came up did poorly, but literally crapped the bed and hit like pitchers is boring. 

The fact that both of their number one overall selections have been either bad or awful is boring. 

The fact that the "TOR" they picked up this offseason took a month and half "off" is boring. The fact that the Orioles still have Jimenez and Rivera on this team is boring. 

It's just a boring team. 

I'm just not interested in this 2024 squad and have zero faith in them that they can do anything in the playoffs. Even against the Royals (who will run all over the Orioles if they play them) or Twins, I don't give them much of a chance. 

I'll never root against an Orioles team, and I hope that some miracle happens and they suddenly become a better team. But I will continue to say that this has been one of the most frustrating Orioles Playoff teams of all time. 

Goodness, this is a really pessimistic take, lol.  I think if you go back and look at the roster 4 years ago it may make you feel a little better about things right now.

I agree with everyone that the second 1/2 has been extremely frustrating.  You can't ignore the fact though that we lost 3 starters in the infield to injury. Two of them were having solid years (Mateo and Mountcastle) and another one was playing at an all star level (Westburg).  The disappointing thing is it appeared we had young depth ready to fill in yet both Holliday and Mayo have been holes in the lineup.  Anyone else has been scrap heap types that aren't players you want in a pennant chase.  

It sounds like excuses, but the team is young and lost some swagger.  Maybe now that most of the guys are getting healthy things just start clicking but that is hard to picture after 2 months of crappy baseball.  

The thing I think we are all missing is the team turned when Adley joined the team.  They seem to go as he goes as he seems to have that "it" factor which means he has an aura about him.  His slump coincided with the O's fall off.  Can he turn it around and ignite the team? I think Adley stepping up and being the player we expect him to be is the key to any post season run.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

The thing I think we are all missing is the team turned when Adley joined the team.  They seem to go as he goes as he seems to have that "it" factor which means he has an aura about him.  His slump coincided with the O's fall off.  Can he turn it around and ignite the team? I think Adley stepping up and being the player we expect him to be is the key to any post season run.

I definitely have not missed this.   

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

Would the Crawford Box -> Walltimore shift torpedo Bregman's power though? 

For sure you'd be buying Bregman for the mettle and to have a big OBP.

It isn't a state secret as much as I think a devised strategy - Bregman and Altuve are not real power hitters but they are 70/80 bats and champs.    I think Bregman has the baseball skill to pivot back to spraying the ball if that is what his home park asked of him.

I don't believe the Orioles will win any of the Burnes-Santander-Bregman auctions, but the way Elias crafts recommendations I think that's where he'd stick his nose in the most if Rubenstein really is leveling up the 2025 Orioles.

What I actually expect this winter via free agency is maybe Kyle Gibson or equivalent, or perhaps nothing.    He isn't going to quit Rogers or both of Seranthony and Soto.    A lot of the 2025 off-season happened at the 2024 trade deadline.