As we enter the offseason, the O's are a _______ win team

[Orioles West]

88-89 if Bautista stays healthy and returns to form — although, I agree with others that we need stronger high leverage help at the back end.

[BRobinsonfan]

86 wins.  I reserve the right to revise and extend my prediction if we make some significant off-season acquisitions - which I'm doubtful of.  

[Fiver6565]

Still a 90 win team. Bautista replacing Kimbrel is huge for the bullpen, and it allows you to properly slot Cano/Dominguez/Soto/Coulombe  which will be beneficial. That’s a pretty solid 5 as of now.
 

Encouraged by how Povich was looking as he got more experience. Eflin a horse at the top of the rotation. Grayson still a breakout candidate.
 

We almost can’t have as many injuries as we did in the 91 win 2024. And the offense almost can’t be as bad it was the last three months. Even with the injuries and slump we got to 91, and I think we can again. 

[sportsfan8703]

I see 81-90 as is.

SP - Eflin, Grayson, Suarez, Kremer, Povich

RH RP - Bautista, Cano, Dominguez, Webb

LH RP - Coloumbe, Soto, Perez, Akin

1. Cowser L LF

2. Westburg R 3B

3. Gunnar L SS

4. O’Hearn L DH

5. Adley S C

6. Mountcastle R 1B

7. Kjerstad L RF

8. Mullins L CF

9. Holliday L 2B

Mateo, Urias, Mayo, RH OF, Back up C

 

[24fps]

9 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Those 3 players combined for 7.3 rWAR, 8.4 fWAR, so subtracting 10 wins is a little steep.

They also aren't being replaced by replacement level players, their replacements without any outside additions would be Tyler Wells, a full season of Eflin (rather than the two months he was here in 2024), and Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo getting most of Santander's at bats.

Add in the return of Bautista, and 81 wins without any additions is overly pessimistic in my opinion.

This thread is only meaningful as an indication of how everybody feels at this moment and has no predictive value.  Fine, that's useful.  At the moment I feel that the 40-41 record over the last half of the 2024 season is at least as meaningful as any approximation based on a motley collection of WAR calculations and highly subjective guesstimates. 

Based on the last two seasons, Elias has a history of being conservative with playing time for O's prospects as they transition from the minors so I will be surprised if Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad all begin the season with starting jobs.  I certainly hope they win them by the end of the season but I predict that, if anything, Elias will rely less on prospects than he did last year and that is what makes this offseason so interesting to me.

[SilverRocket]

86 wins but with some high variance because it really depends whether Holliday and Mayo figure it out. Feel like those two can combine for anywhere from 0 to 9 WAR.

[Jagwar]

21 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Where do you see the Os right now?  With what is signed and here for next year, how many wins does the current team get in 2025?

It's a .500 team. A starting rotation right now of Efflin, GRod (if healthy), Kremer, Povich, Rogers (?). Pretty much the same lineup that struggled for 3+ months. An above average bullpen, maybe awesome if Bautista comes back in form. 

I'm guessing it's going to be a frustrating year without acquiring upgrades in the offseason. 

[Safelykept]

 I'll take one from Jim Palmer, who in the Spring og 1979 said, this team will be lucky to finish 4th

[Safelykept]

1 minute ago, Safelykept said:

 I'll take one from Jim Palmer, who in the Spring og 1979 said, this team will be lucky to finish 4th

So put me down for 102

[waroriole]

With no FA signed, we’re about an 85 win team. This presumes the old Adley returns. And Felix returns to at least 90% of his 2023 version. Very thin on SP and a LH dominant lineup.  Bullpen needs at least one back end addition