Bill James on Dave Trembley

[PaulFolk]

This is threads spiral out of control. Let's stick to the issue at hand and not devolve into childish personal attacks.

[BlackWillow]

But DT is a very bad in game manager.

IMHO, 'bad' is a releative term. I watched Johnny Oats bring in Brad Pennington to face Griffey with the bases loaded when we were only up by 3. I have yet to see Dave to anything which was obviously wrong from the start, but I get your point.

[Mike B]

IMHO, 'bad' is a releative term. I watched Johnny Oats bring in Brad Pennington to face Griffey with the bases loaded when we were only up by 3. I have yet to see Dave to anything which was obviously wrong from the start, but I get your point.

Memories.....by the way that Griffey blast is due to come out of Orbit next month.

[Lucky Jim]

I have to agree with SG here on the main points. There are many things that I can't say here, good or bad, in regards to what I have been told about DT from many people/players.

There is more to being a manager than just filing out a lineup card and making bullpen decisions. Sure, part of the job belongs to the coaches that he has, but ultimately, he is responsible as the manager. The manager has to know when to play "small ball", when to run, when not to run. There are many bullpen decisions that have been odd (not talking about Johnson only pitching one inning, etc.), and those have been the ones that have not worked -- maininly in crucial times of the game. There are many things that DT has not experienced, from not being in the big leagues, that hinder some of his judgement (sorry I can't elaborate at this time).

There are times when you can rest your players. Right now with injuries it does limit what you can do, however it wasn't always that way. The team is right at the beginning of 16 games in a row, without a day off. There easily could have been time to get someone some rest. Now, he will have to do it, with this long stretch. But what if the injuries linger?

In a close game, late, you can use your bench more. You try to win every ballgame. You can figure out who will play where if it comes to that, but in the end, you always want to give yourself the best chance to win every game. I think some have said it before. Unless the offense goes ballistic, the choice of pitchers used in losses makes you scratch your head.

I appreciate what you bring to the board, Sid. But honestly, I'm not sure how we're supposed to take the bolded part. I'm not a big fan of hearsay or rumor - especially when it comes from interested parties - and even less so when it's vague and ill-defined. That just sounds like one of those criticisms invoking some unexplained orthodoxy, kind of an old-boy's club that doesn't want to let anyone in who has a lesser pedigree.

I think there is little question that DT is managing with his hands tied. His (arguably) most talented player is in AAA for no real reason other than contract status. His best LFer is up for a cup of coffee because of a season-long tryout of a guy who we can probably admit is a lesser hitter. His most talented pitchers - all of them, really - are in AAA and AA. He's been hampered for years w/ a bad bench, and this year - when he finally seems to have a better one - he gets waylaid by an absolutely abysmal start from Wigginton (and injuries to Mora, Izturis and Scott that made his movable parts more scarce).

I don't think there is any "right" answer to the starters/pen right now. You can say he's not pushing the right buttons and/or pulling the right strings, but there aren't that many reliable parts back there right now. At some point, the pitchers are responsible for performing when they're in the game. We talk about how ridiculous the age of specialization is, and then when Trembley - likely on the basis of some internal information - tries to use someone out of niche (against a righty, for the second day in a row, etc.) then we hammer him. We need to realize that our pen has two components coming off year-ending arm surgery (Baez and Ray), one coming off catastrophic ineffectiveness whose best fit - according to his career numbers - is as lefty specialist (Sherrill), one coming off a year-ending shoulder problem (Johnson) and one who was bad in every measure (Walker). Who else is there? Bass? Hendrickson?

There you have it. That's the pen we think that DT is wildly mismanaging. It shouldn't be shocking that when those component parts are being mixed and matched that there are some bad results.

I'll be the first to admit that I often don't like DT's pen management. I'm also the first to admit that I don't have complete information. DT may not be the manager when we compete, but I'm very interested in what kind of manager he looks like when he gets an added arm for the rotation and a future All Star catcher behind the plate.

For his sake, I hope we see, at some point, Tillman, Patton, Hernandez and Berken up and pitching this year. Young guys who've won on talent and guile the last two years.

BTW, we have sixteen games coming up: Izturis will be back, Scott will be back, and we will likely have Wieters on the way. I don't think rest is going to be the issue going forward. Wigginton is fine to spell Mora. And Andino fine to spell Roberts.

Obviously you couldn't spell Izturis and Roberts w/ just Andino. Mora will likely sit a game or two over the next weekend, I think. Just a guess.

[Boston Dave]

I propose that we define a kind of replacement level for managers: nobody. What would the team have done, or the outcome have been, if no one was managing this team? I think anything above that probably has some value, and anything below that is obviously a negative.

Love this- and I think it would be a real tool.

[Mike B]

I appreciate what you bring to the board, Sid. But honestly, I'm not sure how we're supposed to take the bolded part. I'm not a big fan of hearsay or rumor - especially when it comes from interested parties - and even less so when it's vague and ill-defined. That just sounds like one of those criticisms invoking some unexplained orthodoxy, kind of an old-boy's club that doesn't want to let anyone in who has a lesser pedigree.

I think there is little question that DT is managing with his hands tied. His (arguably) most talented player is in AAA for no real reason other than contract status. His best LFer is up for a cup of coffee because of a season-long tryout of a guy who we can probably admit is a lesser hitter. His most talented pitchers - all of them, really - are in AAA and AA. He's been hampered for years w/ a bad bench, and this year - when he finally seems to have a better one - he gets waylaid by an absolutely abysmal start from Wigginton (and injuries to Mora, Izturis and Scott that made his movable parts more scarce).

I don't think there is any "right" answer to the starters/pen right now. You can say he's not pushing the right buttons and/or pulling the right strings, but there aren't that many reliable parts back there right now. At some point, the pitchers are responsible for performing when they're in the game. We talk about how ridiculous the age of specialization is, and then when Trembley - likely on the basis of some internal information - tries to use someone out of niche (against a righty, for the second day in a row, etc.) then we hammer him. We need to realize that our pen has two components coming off year-ending arm surgery (Baez and Ray), one coming off catastrophic ineffectiveness whose best fit - according to his career numbers is as lefty specialist (Sherrill), one coming off a year-ending shoulder problem (Johnson) and one who was bad in every measure (Walker). Who else is there? Bass? Hendrickson?

There you have it. That's the pen we think that DT is wildly mismanaging. It shouldn't be shocking that when those component parts are being mixed and matched that there are some bad results.

I'll be the first to admit that I often don't like DT's pen management. I'm also the first to admit that I don't have complete information. DT may not be the manager when we compete, but I'm very interested in what kind of manager he looks like when he gets an added arm for the rotation and a future All Star catcher behind the plate.

For his sake, I hope we see, at some point, Tillman, Patton, Hernandez and Berken up and pitching this year. Young guys who've won on talent and guile the last two years.

BTW, we have sixteen games coming up: Izturis will be back, Scott will be back, and we will likely have Wieters on the way. I don't think rest is going to be the issue going forward. Wigginton is fine to spell Mora. And Andino fine to spell Roberts.

Obviously you couldn't spell Izturis and Roberts w/ just Andino. Mora will likely sit a game or two over the next weekend, I think. Just a guess.

Terrific post, well stated and summed up.

[El Gordo]

First of all, you saying I have no credibility is amusing to me since your opinion about anything is worth nothing.

Secondly, I don't care how DT compares to other managers in terms of in game skills..That is a stupid and meaningless argument but since you lay in bed at night dreaming of DT, it doesn;t surprise me that you bring it up.

I care about how DAVE TREMBLEY is as an in game manager..Now how he is compared to Girardi...I could give a rat's patootie about how other managers manage..I care how the Orioles manager manages and when it comes to in game managing, he is poor.

Now, the minute I say, get rid of DT for so and so, then you can call me out on what the other manager's strengths are but until I do that, you just continue to make yourself look foolish..which for you isn't very difficult.

You really don't get it. Bad manager compared to what. You can't say a thing is good or bad if you have no criteria for judging it. You refuse to compare him to other managers so how do you judge the quality of his management. If I say Nick is a good RF but refuse to compare him to other RF then what Im saying is virtually meaningless. It amounts to saying he's good or bad because I say so. Pretty childish IMO.

[Lucky Jim]

You really don't get it. Bad manager compared to what. You can't say a thing is good or bad if you have no criteria for judging it. You refuse to compare him to other managers so how do you judge the quality of his management. If I say Nick is a good RF but refuse to compare him to other RF then what Im saying is virtually meaningless. It amounts to saying he's good or bad because I say so. Pretty childish IMO.

Gordo, Gordo, Gordo. Come now.

SG is referring to the Platonic Ideal of a Manager. And he's simply not happy with what he sees from Trembley-like shadows on the wall of the cave.

[Sports Guy]

You really don't get it. Bad manager compared to what. You can't say a thing is good or bad if you have no criteria for judging it. You refuse to compare him to other managers so how do you judge the quality of his management. If I say Nick is a good RF but refuse to compare him to other RF then what Im saying is virtually meaningless. It amounts to saying he's good or bad because I say so. Pretty childish IMO.

Saying that DT does this or that better than Francona doesn't mean anything though.

What matters is how he does it for the Orioles.

And for the Orioles, he does a bad job of handling his bench and bullpen.

Again, the point that seems to fly over your head is that I am not comparing him against other managers...I am evaluating him as the Orioles manager...I am evaluating his strengths and weaknesses. His strengths are dealing with the players, the media, etc...His weaknesses are handling the bench and the pen.

That's all...I am not saying DT is a bad manager..I am not saying we should fire him...I am not saying we should replace him with Manny Acta. If I were doing those things, at that point I should have to talk about the attributes of other managers...But since I am not doing that, what the others are doing is meaningless.

I am just saying he isn't a good in game manager...If other managers throughout baseball would make the same moves and mistakes, then fine, they are poor too...But I don't care about that.

[El Gordo]

Gordo, Gordo, Gordo. Come now.

SG is referring to the Platonic Ideal of a Manager. And he's simply not happy with what he sees from Trembley-like shadows on the wall of the cave.

I think you got the cave part right but I would love to hear SG's explanation of Plato's ideal of the baseball manager.:laughlol:

[sector7g]

I disagree. Sam Perlozzo was a very bad in game manager. I wouldn't rate DT as far enough away from average either way to quantify him as anything more than average in game.

This is a good point. A few people have mentioned it's hard to compare DT to other teams managers because we don't see enough of their decision making. We CAN compare him to previous managers though and despite some strange decisions at times he's certainly a breath of fresh air compared to Perlozzo.

[ledzepp8]

You really don't get it. Bad manager compared to what. You can't say a thing is good or bad if you have no criteria for judging it. You refuse to compare him to other managers so how do you judge the quality of his management. If I say Nick is a good RF but refuse to compare him to other RF then what Im saying is virtually meaningless. It amounts to saying he's good or bad because I say so. Pretty childish IMO.

This is exactly right. It would be like if only one person in the history of the world had ever run the mile, and did it in 15 minutes. How do we know if that's good or bad if there's no one else to compare it to?

Besides, the only way you can really gauge how well a manager does with certain in game decisions would be if all things were equal and all managers had the same players. It's a silly argument based only on subjective opinions.

[now]

Was DJ to credit for this, or did he inherit better players that made him look like a better manager? He had 3 pitchers in each of 1996 and 1997 pitch more than 200 IP. In 1997 Kamenicki pitched 175 innings. That right there is going to keep your BP rested. Geez.

However, looking over those rosters, I see that in 1996 there were 13 saves by pitchers other than Myers, the closer, and in 1997, there were 14 saves by pitchers other than the closer. In the 2008, there were only 4 saves made by pitchers other than Sherrill... and he was hurt for a big chunk of that season.

It sounds like DJ knew when to give a BP pitcher the night off, especially the closer. He also had a BP where he trusted most of his pitchers in tight spots. DT seems to have a BP he uses when winning and then while losing.

Remember, that 1997 bullpen was rated as one of the best ALL-TIME in an article at ESPN a few years back.

IMO one of Trembley's strengths is how he uses the right guys in the right situations on most nights, with the "winning bullpen" and "losing bullpen" model.

[Sports Guy]

This is exactly right. It would be like if only one person in the history of the world had ever run the mile, and did it in 15 minutes. How do we know if that's good or bad if there's no one else to compare it to?

Besides, the only way you can really gauge how well a manager does with certain in game decisions would be if all things were equal and all managers had the same players. It's a silly argument based only on subjective opinions.

Let's say that a poll of 25 managers is done and 22 of them say they agreed with DT about sending BB out there for the 7th the other night and that he was right for not getting up a reliever earlier in the inning.

Does that mean that DT's decision was correct or does that mean that the other 22 managers are equally poor in deciding that situation?

That is why it doesn't really matter what the other managers would do...It would matter if I said, I want DT fired in favor of Manny Acta...Then it would be, well why is Acta better? Give examples of why he is better, etc....

But no one is even remotely saying that.

[Slappy]

I think there is little question that DT is managing with his hands tied. His (arguably) most talented player is in AAA for no real reason other than contract status. His best LFer is up for a cup of coffee because of a season-long tryout of a guy who we can probably admit is a lesser hitter. His most talented pitchers - all of them, really - are in AAA and AA. He's been hampered for years w/ a bad bench, and this year - when he finally seems to have a better one - he gets waylaid by an absolutely abysmal start from Wigginton (and injuries to Mora, Izturis and Scott that made his movable parts more scarce).

Jeez, don't let SG see this!