BP's Quick Take on O's Draft

[DrungoHazewood]

A few nuggets from today's article by Kevin Goldstein:

While saying Hobgood was your guy regardless of signability for PR purposes is understandable, it's still hard to believe. If you say a Hobgood for $2.5 million or so is a better pick than one of the four big high school arms who want twice that much, that's not only understandable, but probably correct.

Final Summary: Even though the logic behind the pick was actually sound, taking Hobgood that high is risky, just because of the potential to look bad and/or cheap. Givens pleases the scouts, Townsend pleases the spreadsheet crowd, and the rest of their draft involved a similar balance of tools and performance.

This fits in with my opinion - Hobgood may not have been quite as good as others on the board when he was taken, but he probably has a much better price/performance ratio.

[Moose Milligan]

Drungo, you're wrong. We should be signing guys over slot. It's the cool thing to do, remember?

[QBsILLEST1]

A few nuggets from today's article by Kevin Goldstein:

This fits in with my opinion - Hobgood may not have been quite as good as others on the board when he was taken, but he probably has a much better price/performance ratio.

I dunno, its so hard to guage a player's skill w/o witnessing it first hand for yourself. Wheeler and Hobgood were both easy slot signs. One was one of the big 4 HS arms, the other wasnt. We could have drafted either but went with Hobgood. Though others believe we went the cheap route, I honestly think Hobgood was the best on the board in JJ's opinion. All of them have TOR quality. Comparing Hobgood to Wheeler, their skillset seems very similar though I dont know if I had heard of Wheeler touching 98 MPH before. Hobgood may even have the better curve and an extra pitch to Wheeler. I think that honestly, BA and the other publications put no emphasis on the mental aspect of these kids and that is also a reason why Hobgood is lower than the other big 4 there.

IMO Matzek was the best of the HS arms just due to his advanced command, yes Matzek has 4 good offerings, so does Hobgood, but Hobgood throws a bit harder, IMO Hobgoods 2 best pitches are better than Matzeks 2 best pitches. All in all I udnerstand why we didnt take Matzek, but unless you are loking at BA rankings, the separation in skill set between Hobgood, Wheeler, Matzek, Turner and Miller (Purke?) is so minimal that I do not see how you can rate those 4 as the big 4 and consider Hobgood second tier.

Matzek strengths: Advanced command, advanced repetoire of 4 average to above average pitches, smooth delivery, gained velo as season went on

Hobgood strengths: Advanced poise and intangibles(bulldog mentality), 4 pitches 2 of which are plus already an average-above average slider and a work in progress change up, Better fastball than all HS arms here except for Miller.(has Arrieta movement and tops out around 98) Has a big body that will take major league workload pretty well. Curve has a chance of being fringe plus-plus

Wheeler strengths: 2 plus pitches, advanced command, pitchers body

Though I only listed the strengths here, I really havent heard much of a weakness for Hobgood, I guess his command could improve though he didnt give up many walks in HS, Wheelers weaknesses are based on hm being a 2 pitch guy, and a bad delivery. Matzek is said to pitch to the gun and some reports give out lacadasical (sp?) descriptions of him on the mound.

W/O knowing that Hobgood is rated behind these 2 guys, you would never guess this based off of their reports, I guess its because he was in the 92 MPH range as the season kicked off and the others were already mid 90's around that time.....

[allstar1579]

I dunno, its so hard to guage a player's skill w/o witnessing it first hand for yourself. Wheeler and Hobgood were both easy slot signs. One was one of the big 4 HS arms, the other wasnt. We could have drafted either but went with Hobgood. Though others believe we went the cheap route, I honestly think Hobgood was the best on the board in JJ's opinion. All of them have TOR quality. Comparing Hobgood to Wheeler, their skillset seems very similar though I dont know if I had heard of Wheeler touching 98 MPH before. Hobgood may even have the better curve and an extra pitch to Wheeler. I think that honestly, BA and the other publications put no emphasis on the mental aspect of these kids and that is also a reason why Hobgood is lower than the other big 4 there.

IMO Matzek was the best of the HS arms just due to his advanced command, yes Matzek has 4 good offerings, so does Hobgood, but Hobgood throws a bit harder, IMO Hobgoods 2 best pitches are better than Matzeks 2 best pitches. All in all I udnerstand why we didnt take Matzek, but unless you are loking at BA rankings, the separation in skill set between Hobgood, Wheeler, Matzek, Turner and Miller (Purke?) is so minimal that I do not see how you can rate those 4 as the big 4 and consider Hobgood second tier.

Matzek strengths: Advanced command, advanced repetoire of 4 average to above average pitches, smooth delivery, gained velo as season went on

Hobgood strengths: Advanced poise and intangibles(bulldog mentality), 4 pitches 2 of which are plus already an average-above average slider and a work in progress change up, Better fastball than all HS arms here except for Miller.(has Arrieta movement and tops out around 98) Has a big body that will take major league workload pretty well. Curve has a chance of being fringe plus-plus

Wheeler strengths: 2 plus pitches, advanced command, pitchers body

Though I only listed the strengths here, I really havent heard much of a weakness for Hobgood, I guess his command could improve though he didnt give up many walks in HS, Wheelers weaknesses are based on hm being a 2 pitch guy, and a bad delivery. Matzek is said to pitch to the gun and some reports give out lacadasical (sp?) descriptions of him on the mound.

W/O knowing that Hobgood is rated behind these 2 guys, you would never guess this based off of their reports, I guess its because he was in the 92 MPH range as the season kicked off and the others were already mid 90's around that time.....

Have to disagree on a few points...first we have no idea what Wheeler is asking for and if he would have been an easy sign. With the other HS guys asking for a ton he could have upped his demands that last week.

Matzek has good control of 4 pitches, 2 plus one above average and one average. Hobgood (sorry guys, I know you are reading) has 2 plus, one average and one that needs some work. Not that it's a HUGE drop off between the two players or anything, just gotta clarify a bit His command is ok but not impeccable or anything, I think it's somewhere between average and above-average for me.

Wheeler has a very similar set to Hobgood but Matt's fastball while slower has more life and plays heavier. Matt's control is a tick better too. Really in the end between the two it comes down to do you like a heavier fastball with more movement, or a harder fastball, and which player's intangibles do you like better. I can totally see it being a close pick between the two.

[QBsILLEST1]

Have to disagree on a few points...first we have no idea what Wheeler is asking for and if he would have been an easy sign. With the other HS guys asking for a ton he could have upped his demands that last week.

Matzek has good control of 4 pitches, 2 plus one above average and one average. Hobgood (sorry guys, I know you are reading) has 2 plus, one average and one that needs some work. Not that it's a HUGE drop off between the two players or anything, just gotta clarify a bit His command is ok but not impeccable or anything, I think it's somewhere between average and above-average for me.

Wheeler has a very similar set to Hobgood but Matt's fastball while slower has more life and plays heavier. Matt's control is a tick better too. Really in the end between the two it comes down to do you like a heavier fastball with more movement, or a harder fastball, and which player's intangibles do you like better. I can totally see it being a close pick between the two.

What I bolded of what you said, is what that I said about Hobgood.....I said Matzek is IMO the best pitcher of the 1st tier guys which he is, but Hobgood isnt too far behind him and that above average pitch that Matzek has from what I read is inconsistent.

Now, Hobgood is said to have touched 98, I think I may have read reports saying the same from Wheeler but they both generally sit in the mid 90's, but as you said Hobgood has more movement on his. Movement is also more important than velocity, but Hobgood has both speed and movement and the same velo.... If I remember right, Hobgood has the best curve ball of any of the HS arms in the 1st tier.

As I said, IMO Matzek was the best of the 4, but to consider Wheeler, Turner, Purke and Miller better than Hobgood, IMO is being superficial because the only way you can clearly consider all those guys better than Hobgood is if you are going off of BA or other website's rankings. IMO he should be rated #2 behind Matzek but ahead of the other 4 prep arms, he has more pitches, better intangibles, and his fastball if it does top out at 98, is better than everyone else's except for possibly Miller who throws consistently harder but may sacrifice movement...But basically, tell me what are you disagreeing with?

[Stotle]

What I bolded of what you said, is what that I said about Hobgood.....I said Matzek is IMO the best pitcher of the 1st tier guys which he is, but Hobgood isnt too far behind him and that above average pitch that Matzek has from what I read is inconsistent.

Now, Hobgood is said to have touched 98, I think I may have read reports saying the same from Wheeler but they both generally sit in the mid 90's, but as you said Hobgood has more movement on his. Movement is also more important than velocity, but Hobgood has both speed and movement and the same velo.... If I remember right, Hobgood has the best curve ball of any of the HS arms in the 1st tier.

As I said, IMO Matzek was the best of the 4, but to consider Wheeler, Turner, Purke and Miller better than Hobgood, IMO is being superficial because the only way you can clearly consider all those guys better than Hobgood is if you are going off of BA or other website's rankings. IMO he should be rated #2 behind Matzek but ahead of the other 4 prep arms, he has more pitches, better intangibles, and his fastball if it does top out at 98, is better than everyone else's except for possibly Miller who throws consistently harder but may sacrifice movement...But basically, tell me what are you disagreeing with?

The bolded isn't correct, or fair, in my opinion. I've seen three of those kids pitch live and seen a fair amount of video on all five, and Hobgood ranked as fifth on my list.

I think you are either ignoring or accidentally leaving out of your analysis the fact that Hobgood lacks the physical projection of some of the other prep arms regularly listed above him. Further, I don't necessarily agree with the pitch gradings being generally thrown around, but I acknowledge that is an individual's take with no true "right" answer.

Finally, I don't agree with your general comparison of the various fastalls/arsenals, but again acknowledge that people can have different takes on the matter. That said, if you are relying primarily on reports from sites like BA, I don't know how you could then shrug off the fact that those same sites rated other prep arms more highly.

[allstar1579]

What I bolded of what you said, is what that I said about Hobgood.....I said Matzek is IMO the best pitcher of the 1st tier guys which he is, but Hobgood isnt too far behind him and that above average pitch that Matzek has from what I read is inconsistent.

Now, Hobgood is said to have touched 98, I think I may have read reports saying the same from Wheeler but they both generally sit in the mid 90's, but as you said Hobgood has more movement on his. Movement is also more important than velocity, but Hobgood has both speed and movement and the same velo.... If I remember right, Hobgood has the best curve ball of any of the HS arms in the 1st tier.

As I said, IMO Matzek was the best of the 4, but to consider Wheeler, Turner, Purke and Miller better than Hobgood, IMO is being superficial because the only way you can clearly consider all those guys better than Hobgood is if you are going off of BA or other website's rankings. IMO he should be rated #2 behind Matzek but ahead of the other 4 prep arms, he has more pitches, better intangibles, and his fastball if it does top out at 98, is better than everyone else's except for possibly Miller who throws consistently harder but may sacrifice movement...But basically, tell me what are you disagreeing with?

Instead of going point by point I was just giving you a general quick read on all 3, but I was disagreeing with your assessment of Matzek's pitches, he has 2 plus now and I wouldn't say that Matt's 2 plus pitches are better than his, it's hard to say plus pitches are plus pitches, each have give and take. I think we can ask Matt's Uncle about the hitting 98 because I have some big doubts on that one if he's sitting at low 90's, nor do I remember seeing reports on that. Not to mention there is a big difference between hitting 98 and being able to do it consistently.

I put absolutely no stock in publication rankings, if I did there would be nothing to read when I post because I'd be reciting their stuff, I tend to not agree with them more than I agree. I have Hobgood ranked lower than the other guys on my own merit. There is nothing wrong taking him at number 5 and getting good value, like I think Drungo said earlier, his potential and value combo makes him a great pick there.

[QBsILLEST1]

Instead of going point by point I was just giving you a general quick read on all 3, but I was disagreeing with your assessment of Matzek's pitches, he has 2 plus now and I wouldn't say that Matt's 2 plus pitches are better than his, it's hard to say plus pitches are plus pitches, each have give and take. I think we can ask Matt's Uncle about the hitting 98 because I have some big doubts on that one if he's sitting at low 90's, nor do I remember seeing reports on that. Not to mention there is a big difference between hitting 98 and being able to do it consistently.

I put absolutely no stock in publication rankings, if I did there would be nothing to read when I post because I'd be reciting their stuff, I tend to not agree with them more than I agree. I have Hobgood ranked lower than the other guys on my own merit. There is nothing wrong taking him at number 5 and getting good value, like I think Drungo said earlier, his potential and value combo makes him a great pick there.

I know you dont pay attention to the BA rankings, you do your own stuff and get first hand information rather than rely on BA.

BUT, I say Hobgood's 2 best pitches are better than Matzek's with good reasoning, am I wrong about it being said that Hobgood had the best curve of HS arms in the draft? Or if not in the draft, of the top tier for prep arms at the very least? It also comes down to how accurate Hobgood's fastball velocity reports are. If he does touch 98 with the amount of movement he has, I take that over Matzek's 96-97 MPH heat especially with the movement that Hobgood's fastball has.

I personally havent seen ANY of these guys pitch in person and am going off of various reports throughout the internet. You, Stotle and Allstar have, so I take both of your opinions very very highly. Just like in comparison to what Jordan says compared to Sickels and Ba and BP say, he saw Hobgood up close numerous times, so I take JJ's opinion over BA's and other publications. Just as your opinion's hold more weight than mine on these guys, but have either of you guys seen Hobgood pitch? I am eagerly awaiting a scouting report from one of you guys instead of going off of what BA and Sickels says....

The lack of body projection in Hobgood is something I accidentally ignored, but just because he is already big doesnt mean that he cannot gain more velocity with a mechanical tweak here or there. Strasburg was a big kid who gained velocity, how? I do not know, maybe from getting into better physical shape....Another thing to remember is that you do nto always gain velocity as you fill out(Gibson).

When judging a guy's body projection, what do you look at as a whole? Im guessing height, frame(shoulders and trunk/waist) and weight displacement.....

[allstar1579]

I know you dont pay attention to the BA rankings, you do your own stuff and get first hand information rather than rely on BA.

BUT, I say Hobgood's 2 best pitches are better than Matzek's with good reasoning, am I wrong about it being said that Hobgood had the best curve of HS arms in the draft? Or if not in the draft, of the top tier for prep arms at the very least? It also comes down to how accurate Hobgood's fastball velocity reports are. If he does touch 98 with the amount of movement he has, I take that over Matzek's 96-97 MPH heat especially with the movement that Hobgood's fastball has.

I personally havent seen ANY of these guys pitch in person and am going off of various reports throughout the internet. You, Stotle and Allstar have, so I take both of your opinions very very highly. Just like in comparison to what Jordan says compared to Sickels and Ba and BP say, he saw Hobgood up close numerous times, so I take JJ's opinion over BA's and other publications. Just as your opinion's hold more weight than mine on these guys, but have either of you guys seen Hobgood pitch? I am eagerly awaiting a scouting report from one of you guys instead of going off of what BA and Sickels says....

The lack of body projection in Hobgood is something I accidentally ignored, but just because he is already big doesnt mean that he cannot gain more velocity with a mechanical tweak here or there. Strasburg was a big kid who gained velocity, how? I do not know, maybe from getting into better physical shape....Another thing to remember is that you do nto always gain velocity as you fill out(Gibson).

When judging a guy's body projection, what do you look at as a whole? Im guessing height, frame(shoulders and trunk/waist) and weight displacement.....

I dunno, Matt's curve is pretty good, but Matzek has some serious polish on a couple of his pitches, he's got just as much if not more movement than Matt does on his FB. Matzek wasn't throwing 93-95 until the end of the season, he was sitting around 90-92 at the end of last year and beginning of this year, so he had to do the same thing making the pitch dance. No way Matt is hitting 98 with that kind of movement, sheer physics when you start throwing FB above say 93-94 it gets more and more straight, just not enough time to move around in 60 feet. It moves when he is sitting around 92, but the harder you throw it, the less movement you get. That's why some of the softer throwing guys last so long because they can change speeds and have their FB look like 3 different pitches from the same arm slot.

I've seen some video, but not a whole lot on him, I don't get around the country as much as Stotle, but from what I did see I had him at #6 of the HS arms. No knock on him because the HS arms were really deep this year, and he could have been the best HS arm if he would have come out some other years, but I had it as: Matzek, Wheeler, S. Miller, Purke, Turner, Hobgood. Not a whole lot of distance between them, but the most spacing is between Matzek and Wheeler for me.

I've been trying to ignore the body and size issue with him, everyone is different and can throw at their own comfort level, whether it is at 245, 210 or 285. Guys have varying degrees of success where they are comfortable, so if he is good with where he is now, ok with me. He's strong no matter what his size and with that kind of muscle behind him it should help to keep him more injury free. I haven't focused on his mechanics a whole lot, but I didn't see anything that stood out to me in the video I saw. I'll try to get some time and do something a bit more in depth when I get a chance.

[Stotle]

I know you dont pay attention to the BA rankings, you do your own stuff and get first hand information rather than rely on BA.

BUT, I say Hobgood's 2 best pitches are better than Matzek's with good reasoning, am I wrong about it being said that Hobgood had the best curve of HS arms in the draft? Or if not in the draft, of the top tier for prep arms at the very least? It also comes down to how accurate Hobgood's fastball velocity reports are. If he does touch 98 with the amount of movement he has, I take that over Matzek's 96-97 MPH heat especially with the movement that Hobgood's fastball has.

I personally havent seen ANY of these guys pitch in person and am going off of various reports throughout the internet. You, Stotle and Allstar have, so I take both of your opinions very very highly. Just like in comparison to what Jordan says compared to Sickels and Ba and BP say, he saw Hobgood up close numerous times, so I take JJ's opinion over BA's and other publications. Just as your opinion's hold more weight than mine on these guys, but have either of you guys seen Hobgood pitch? I am eagerly awaiting a scouting report from one of you guys instead of going off of what BA and Sickels says....

The lack of body projection in Hobgood is something I accidentally ignored, but just because he is already big doesnt mean that he cannot gain more velocity with a mechanical tweak here or there. Strasburg was a big kid who gained velocity, how? I do not know, maybe from getting into better physical shape....Another thing to remember is that you do nto always gain velocity as you fill out(Gibson).

When judging a guy's body projection, what do you look at as a whole? Im guessing height, frame(shoulders and trunk/waist) and weight displacement.....

Hobgood's curve is among the best in the draft class and certainly could be rated the best among prep players (of those I've seen).

I haven't seen Hobgood consistently in the mid-90s, though he gets good life. I'd rate Miller's FB above his for combo of movement/velocity/command.

Strasburg was better physical shape and improved mechanics.

Size projection essentially comes down to frame and genetics (if available, looking at parents).

While Hobgood's fastball is very good right now, I don't see as much projection with the pitch, as command is really the improvement I think he'll make. If someone like Wheeler is throwing with comparable velocity, he has more room to add velo and end up with a better pitch (though you are then relying on your ability to project how that pitch can ultimately turn out, rather than taking the safer Hobgood and what he already has).

Thanks for mentioning the report -- I'm releasing each of my reports as the players sign. Hobgood is basically finished up, so it should be out pretty close to his signing. I haven't seen Hobgood pitch live but have seen a fair amount of video. My report notes that some of the pitch grades should be taken with a grain of salt because of the small sample size, for example.