Wagner in '10?

[ejf1025]

To be fair, only EJF is saying that and I highly doubt Wagner gets anywhere near that money this offseason.

I said (or tried, maybe it was read wrong) 2yrs with club option for $10-12.

That's only about 4mil annually.

[Mark Carver]

People have bounced back from TJ--he's already pitching again, it's a different era in terms of tech. And this is also precisely why you could get him on the cheap...we will have cash, it's not a long-term commitment.

Marketing-wise you might get some love from him chasing 400 and the lefty save record.

At worst, he gets hurt and you eat the money (which would prob be insured) and just go back to Johnson/Mickolio/Uehara.

Insurance companies have wised up, especially with pitchers. They will not insure a pitcher with a pre-existing condition. Big payouts to the likes because of Albert Belle, Scott Erickson, etc have forced them to make changes.

See this 2007 article on Roger Clemens and insuring players.

“It’s up to our risk-management department to consider it,” said Brian Cashman, who has witnessed the sharp rise in disability insurance rates during his 10-year tenure as the team’s general manager.

Randy Hendricks, Clemens’s agent, said in an e-mail message that “not nearly as many players or contracts are insured as they used to be” because of high premiums and exclusions from coverage.

source

[ejf1025]

Insurance companies have wised up, especially with pitchers. They will not insure a pitcher with a pre-existing condition. Big payouts to the likes because of Albert Belle, Scott Erickson, etc have forced them to make changes.

See this 2007 article on Roger Clemens and insuring players.

source

Fine...point conceeded. I still don't think it's this big economic hinderance people are making it out to be.

[Mackus]

You said "even if he wasn't hurt."

I think his age should stay the same regardless of the health of his arm. I'll see if I can dig up a link just to be sure.

[Sports Guy]

I said (or tried, maybe it was read wrong) 2yrs with club option for $10-12.

That's only about 4mil annually.

So, you are saying 2/8 in guaranteed money?

[ejf1025]

I think his age should stay the same regardless of the health of his arm. I'll see if I can dig up a link just to be sure.

So you think...even if he was fully recovered...that he would go from a 2.30 era in 2008 to a poor pitcher in 2010?

[Mackus]

So, you are saying 2/8 in guaranteed money?

From the article, Wagner said he isn't sure he wants to play beyond next year. So it probably would be a one-year deal with an option wherever he ends up signing.

[Crazysilver03]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4419074

If the Sox do indeed decline his option....who would be interested? At what price?

That interesting that the Sox are in this discussion when he is still a Met.

[ejf1025]

So, you are saying 2/8 in guaranteed money?

Yea...I may top out higher than that depending on the market, etc.

But around that ballpark.

[OrioleMagic]

I am against bringing in Wagner because over the last few days... Kam and JJ are looking like they will have the two most critical bullpen roles locked up!

However, if the O's need a LOOGY and the price is right and no one else is ready... then maybe.

I would rather take a shot at Sheets with an incentive-laden contract offer than Wagner though.

[Sports Guy]

Yea...I may top out higher than that depending on the market, etc.

But around that ballpark.

I would be extremely surprised if anyone gave him more than 1 year to be honest...He may get 3 or 4 million dollars but I doubt it would be for more than 1 year.

[ejf1025]

From the article, Wagner said he isn't sure he wants to play beyond next year. So it probably would be a one-year deal with an option wherever he ends up signing.

Even better.

[Mackus]

So you think...even if he was fully recovered...that he would go from a 2.30 era in 2008 to a poor pitcher in 2010?

Well you certainly can't eliminate his injury, because he's a very high risk to show ill effects from the surgery next season. Not necessarily to be hurt, but to not be at his best. Combine that with his age and likeliness of falling off even if there were no injury concerns (a 38 year old pitcher suddenly losing it wouldn't be even remotely surprising to anybody), and it becomes obvious that he's not worth the risk.

There is very little potential upside, really the only positive we could net is to have him pitch really well and we hopefully get some young talent in return for him at the deadline, but again a 38 year old reliever with 2 months on his deal likely isn't worth the same type of trade that Sherrill was worth, for example.

[ejf1025]

I would be extremely surprised if anyone gave him more than 1 year to be honest...He may get 3 or 4 million dollars but I doubt it would be for more than 1 year.

See my other post. Even better.

Why not add more talent to the pool...the cost wouldn't hurt our operations...he's not blocking anyone...he makes us better...and you could--as you advocate--give him a trade mid-year.

[ejf1025]

Well you certainly can't eliminate his injury, because he's a very high risk to show ill effects from the surgery next season. Not necessarily to be hurt, but to not be at his best. Combine that with his age and likeliness of falling off even if there were no injury concerns (a 38 year old pitcher suddenly losing it wouldn't be even remotely surprising to anybody), and it becomes obvious that he's not worth the risk.

There is very little potential upside, really the only positive we could net is to have him pitch really well and we hopefully get some young talent in return for him at the deadline, but again a 38 year old reliever with 2 months on his deal likely isn't worth the same type of trade that Sherrill was worth, for example.

I didn't. I said the last paragraph was a gross overstatement because you said even if he was healthy. Furthermore, I don't think he's just some 38-yr old reliever....he's a borderline HOFer.

I understand the injury concern. I just think we are in a position to absorb that money-hit if it happens to rear it's head.

Just because he isn't a piece to build around, doesn't mean he can't help us or it's not a risk-worth taking. There's also very little downside to signing him...especially if all it take is a 1 year deal at a few million considering that a substantial portion of our roster will be on rookie/arbitration contracts.