Wagner in '10?

[ejf1025]

Has any GM ever done this? Ever? Even once? Is there any precedent whatsoever for any team with any GM paying some old rehabbing FA RP guy several million bucks so they can maybe trade him later? I bet not. I think you guys are completely making this up, based on nothing. Am I wrong?

He could also...you know...pitch really well. Like that 2.30 era he had last year....and pretty much every other year he has ever pitched in.

We're not exactly scraping the heap here....he's really, really good.

[GotNitro]

Whose innings is he eating up?

Do you honestly think JJ won't be used? Or Mickolio? Or Ray?

What's the harm in bumping everyone down a slot? How do you know he won't be DFA'd? I'd assume if someone were willing to take a flier on the injury they're also prepared to cut him loose if necessary.

Why would we want to bring someone new in to pitch one inning? We do not need to go outside the organization to hire any reliever, not to mention one to only get three outs. IMO all relievers should have the ability to go two or three innings if needed.

[ejf1025]

Why would we want to bring someone new in to pitch one inning? We do not need to go outside the organization to hire any reliever, not to mention one to only get three outs. IMO all relievers should have the ability to go two or three innings if needed.

So that we have a really good bullpen. I'm pretty sure Wagner could pitch two innings here and there (like Sherrill, Johnson, et al)

[Say O!]

I can't honestly expect that any real-GM would think like that. I think real-GM's sign guys to make the team better. I don't think they pay millions to sign iffy guys in the hope they can "flip" them later. I think that is just stuff fantasy-GM's come up with when they think they're being oh-so-clever. I don't think real-GM's act like used car salesmen.

But let's not worry about that. Let's say you're right. Have circumstances ever worked out in a way that provides any circumstantial evidence that any real GM has ever done any of this "pay millions now for some iffy guy to 'flip' him later" tactic? If it's such a sensible thing to do, then surely there must be several examples where it's pretty obvious that's what they were doing. Got any?

Textbook example: Octavio Dotel signed a 1 yr deal with the KC Royals in 2007, assumed closer duties, and was promptly traded to the Atlanta Braves in July for (then) a very good prospect in Kyle Davies.

Not so rare after all...

[ejf1025]

Textbook example: Octavio Dotel signed a 1 yr deal with the KC Royals in 2007, assumed closer duties, and was promptly traded to the Atlanta Braves in July for then good prospect Kyle Davies.

Not so rare after all...

No, of course it's not rare and of course it's taken into consideration. But instead of just simply disagreeing with the strategy, he likes to suggest that line of thinking just doesn't exist. It makes rebuttals almost impossible because instead of just explaining why you think it's a good idea you have to debate whether the idea is even plausible.

[Sports Guy]

Completely different. I said that before the season, assuming he would have a decent year. And midseason I said if he doesn't improve, then I wouldn't offer him arbitration.

I was right in both cases. If he had a good year, offering him arb would have been a no-brainer. Since he didn't have a good year, and in fact had a terrible year, not offering him arbitration became the no-brainer.

I choose to look at the information I have available, and leave open the possibility of future information changing my course of action. I didn't realize that we had to decide last March if we were going to offer Huff arbitration in November. Maybe I need to read the CBA a little more closely.

You definitely were saying that well into the season.

[Mackus]

You definitely were saying that well into the season.

Of course I said that well into the season, when it was still entirely plausible for him to have a good enough season to merit offering arbitration too.

Hell, it was still a possibility, although growing increasingly remote, by the All Star break, but that would have required him to have a big time 2nd half like in '07 and '08.

You seem to always think that future decisions need to be made immediately. I prefer to wait and see all the information at hand before having to make a decision.

Nolan Reimold will be arbitration eligible after 2011 and FA eligible after 2015. Should we extend him?

[Arthur_Bryant]

Whose innings is he eating up?

Do you honestly think JJ won't be used? Or Mickolio? Or Ray?

What's the harm in bumping everyone down a slot? How do you know he won't be DFA'd? I'd assume if someone were willing to take a flier on the injury they're also prepared to cut him loose if necessary.

The harm in bumping everyone down a slot comes if the guy doing the bumping isn't clearly better than the rest of them.

It's not that the others won't be used, but that they won't be used in a way that continues to develop their value. That's okay if the guy who arrests it is clearly better than whomever he displaces. But if he's not, then you're paying a pretty substantial salary in order to set back the development of two or three of your best in-house relievers.

This pickup makes a ton of sense for a team that doesn't have a bunch of good options already, because even if Wagner isn't truly dominant, he's still an improvement. But it only makes sense for the O's if he's at the top of his form right away. You think there's a good chance he will be; I think--given his age and the injury--that he almost certainly won't be.

[Sports Guy]

Of course I said that well into the season, when it was still entirely plausible for him to have a good enough season to merit offering arbitration too.

Hell, it was still a possibility, although growing increasingly remote, by the All Star break, but that would have required him to have a big time 2nd half like in '07 and '08.

You seem to always think that future decisions need to be made immediately. I prefer to wait and see all the information at hand before having to make a decision.

Nolan Reimold will be arbitration eligible after 2011 and FA eligible after 2015. Should we extend him?

Whatever...The point is you kept saying Huff should be brought back...You were saying that when he was struggling.

You can't sit there and say that bringing him back for a lot of money after a poor season isn't a big deal but bringing in Wagner, for less money, is a big deal.

You kept making the point that Huff's contract wouldn't hinder us from doing anything...well guess what, neither wouldn Wagner's then and Wagner has a better chance of being above average for his position than Huff does.

[ejf1025]

The harm in bumping everyone down a slot comes if the guy doing the bumping isn't clearly better than the rest of them.

It's not that the others won't be used, but that they won't be used in a way that continues to develop their value. That's okay if the guy who arrests it is clearly better than whomever he displaces. But if he's not, then you're paying a pretty substantial salary in order to set back the development of two or three of your best in-house relievers.

This pickup makes a ton of sense for a team that doesn't have a bunch of good options already, because even if Wagner isn't truly dominant, he's still an improvement. But it only makes sense for the O's if he's at the top of his form right away. You think there's a good chance he will be; I think--given his age and the injury--that he almost certainly won't be.

How is their development setback?

They are still going to be in big games, pitching the same number of innings. ...it's purely artificial value. It's like saying don't get a #3 hitter because you would stunt the development of Wieters by having him bat lower in the order.

Furthermore, I'd rather keep Johnson out of the closer role so his monetary value doesn't jump....

[Say O!]

One facet of the Wagner discussion yet to be discussed is attendance.

In addition to fielding an improved team, O's mgmt needs to put butts in the seats. Now, will Wagner do that? He'll generate some publicity and media attention, and generate some buzz. Maybe that will lead to some increased attendance, maybe not. But we should at least consider the possibility.

IIRC, Wagner lives outside of Charlottesville, VA. He may very well be willing to sign with the Nats to be closer to home. C'ville to DC is not a doable daily commute, but off days may make it a compelling choice.

[Arthur_Bryant]

How is their development setback?

They are still going to be in big games, pitching the same number of innings. ...it's purely artificial value. It's like saying don't get a #3 hitter because you would stunt the development of Wieters by having him bat lower in the order.

Furthermore, I'd rather keep Johnson out of the closer role so his monetary value doesn't jump....

It's only artificial value if you are 100 p.c. determined not to trade them.

A surplus at any position ought to be considered trade potential.

Bear in mind that both Arrieta and Hernanadez are being talked about as late-inning relievers in the event that they don't work out as starters.

Again, this move only makes sense if Wagner is dominant from the get. And that's assuming JJ himself isn't dominant.

[RShack]

Textbook example: Octavio Dotel signed a 1 yr deal with the KC Royals in 2007, assumed closer duties, and was promptly traded to the Atlanta Braves in July for (then) a very good prospect in Kyle Davies.

Well, he wasn't an old guy, but that's still a good answer.

BTW, what was the story with Dotel? He had a total of 25 IP over 2005 and 2006 combined, was rotten in his very few '06 IP, and then they gave him $5M? Was it Tommy John surgery, or something else?

[ejf1025]

It's only artificial value if you are 100 p.c. determined not to trade them.

A surplus at any position ought to be considered trade potential.

Bear in mind that both Arrieta and Hernanadez are being talked about as late-inning relievers in the event that they don't work out as starters.

Again, this move only makes sense if Wagner is dominant from the get. And that's assuming JJ himself isn't dominant.

Come on...by the time DH and JA are moving to the pen we would prob be out from under the Wagner contract.

And why would JJ's "dominance" have any bearing on not getting another "dominant" arm??

I understand if you don't think Wagner will be good (I disagree), but to tell me it's because he will stunt people's growth is patently absurd. The people who would be getting pinched are the Albers, Meredith, Baez of the world. Mickolio, Johnson and Ray (given he has finally figured it out, which is probably about as risky as relying on Wagner) would all be used and play pivotal roles.

To shun replacing poor talent with better talent is ridiculous.

[Mackus]

Whatever...The point is you kept saying Huff should be brought back...You were saying that when he was struggling.

You can't sit there and say that bringing him back for a lot of money after a poor season isn't a big deal but bringing in Wagner, for less money, is a big deal.

You kept making the point that Huff's contract wouldn't hinder us from doing anything...well guess what, neither wouldn Wagner's then and Wagner has a better chance of being above average for his position than Huff does.

No I didn't. I never said bring him back even if he has a crappy season.

What I said, all along, was that it was likely that he has a good enough season to be worth offering arbitration, and as the year kept going on and his season never started turning around, I commented on how it was becoming less and less likely that it would be worth offering him arbitration.

Don't make ridiculous comments about what I've been saying when you don't have a damn clue what you're talking about. I considered it very unlikely at the start of the season that Huff would have a bad enough season where we wouldn't want to offer him arbitration. Well, I clearly either didn't give it a big enough of a chance or that small chance that he would suck did in fact occur.

I guess you've gotta try and tear down some strawmen here, though if you aren't gonna get back to the main point of this thread.

I'm not saying bringing in Wagner would be a big deal, I'm saying there are much better uses for that money given the practical expectations one can have for Wagner next year given his age and the fact that he's coming off a tough injury to recover quickly from.