Reds looking to dump salary to add Scutaro

[crawdad]

Votto >> Hamilton

I would completely and utterly agree with that. Votto's track record, age, and health project far better than Hamilton's.

[Sports Guy]

I think what is important for them is to cut salary and remain competitive. Why else would they keep their closer?

Well, they can still remain competitive with the package i said.

It still goes back to...better prospect or save more money?

Who knows....Maybe its not that big of a deal and they would prefer the better prospect but 11 million is a lot and with so many teams losing money and having serious financial troubles, that could mean more to them than a prospect that grades slightly better.

[allstar1579]

1200 plate appearances at 900+ ops is a pretty good track record and his salary condition makes him very valuable.

Yeah, I know, I'm just a big believer in the 3 year rule. Might just be me being overly cautious, but I like to see that third, or at least into that third season before I really elevate a guy to elite you know? Not that I'm saying I'm not a fan, cause I am, I just don't know at this point if I'm ready to make him the one big splash we deal our pitching inventory for.

[ejf1025]

Why are we jumping to Votto...could the Reds move Alonso instead?

[crawdad]

Why are we jumping to Votto...could the Reds move Alonso instead?

Not sure how much they like Alonso, but using VW's methodology.

Arroyo (-4MM) + Alonso (+20MM) = 16MM price differential.

For us that would be something like Hernandez/Erbe and Britton.

Using that for the others:

Arroyo (-4MM) + Votto (+42MM) = 38MM price differential

For us that would be something like Tillman (20MM), Hernandez/Erbe, and Britton.

That is weird. Hmmm . . . that might be not taking in account price fluctuations on free market position availability. Have to think about that.

[ejf1025]

Not sure how much they like Alonso, but using VW's methodology.

Arroyo (-4MM) + Alonso (+20MM) = 16MM price differential.

For us that would be something like Hernandez/Erbe and Britton.

Using that for the others:

Arroyo (-4MM) + Votto (+42MM) = 38MM price differential

For us that would be something like Tillman (20MM), Hernandez/Erbe, and Britton.

That is weird. Hmmm . . . that might be not taking in account price fluctuations on free market position availability. Have to think about that.

That's a decent parameter for us....much better than the Votto...

Who is VW btw?

[clapdiddy]

That's a decent parameter for us....much better than the Votto...

Who is VW btw?

Volkswagen, of course!

[crawdad]

That's a decent parameter for us....much better than the Votto...

Who is VW btw?

Victor Wang . . . he ran a few regressions two years ago to attribute monetary values for prospect class. I then combined this with expected producted and known pay for the established MLBers.

[ejf1025]

Victor Wang . . . he ran a few regressions two years ago to attribute monetary values for prospect class. I then combined this with expected producted and known pay for the established MLBers.

You said Wang....hehehe.

[HeatherC12]

Just an FYI regarding the Reds perspective on this whole thing, here's a blurb from the Reds beat writer about this new article that came out today. Personally, I can't see the Reds glutting any of their young players right now. They've been trying to build from their farm system fro the last few years and things are finally starting to come from it so why would they want to get rid of any part of that core? It definitely wouldn't be for anything less than a stud from another team that fills a need for them and most teams are holding onto their young major league players right now. I can see the pitchers being traded for salary relief but Phillips' salary isn't a hardship for the team right now. I think that article was just a random guy talking and the only thing he has right is that the Reds are being careful with their budget for next season.

Question from Danny: I saw a blurb on a local blog about the possibility of the Reds moving Brandon Phillips in a salary dump. Is this really something being explored? At $5 million for next season, that would be absolutely stupid. We tied big money into pitchers that don’t deserve it (Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang and Francisco Cordero) and acquired Scott Rolen (who makes a ridiculous amount). If the Reds are actually considering trading Phillips because of that, Walt Jocketty and Bob Castellini need to reevaluate things and this might be one fan that would reconsider my usual purchase of a ticket package. If you can’t be responsible with the resources you have as an organization, why am I going to spend money on you? Sorry for rambling – look forward to your response.

A: There was a report on the fanhouse.com in which Jocketty said the Reds payroll would “probably” be lower. That’s a foregone conclusion. It has been since before last season ended. The part of report about trades was specualtion by the writers. I don’t see Phillips getting traded unless the Reds can fill a significant need for 2010. It was also mentioned that Joey Votto could be moved as part of a package. If that happens, you’ll be in a long line of fans reconsidering tickets for next season. I can’t see Castellini signing off on any Votto deal. I could see either Harang or Cordero getting moved to open up salary. But Castellini knows that fans are out of patience. I don’t see him gutting the club to balance the books for 2010. Remember, Arroyo and Harang are in the last year of their contract.

[ejf1025]

Just an FYI regarding the Reds perspective on this whole thing, here's a blurb from the Reds beat writer about this new article that came out today. Personally, I can't see the Reds glutting any of their young players right now. They've been trying to build from their farm system fro the last few years and things are finally starting to come from it so why would they want to get rid of any part of that core? It definitely wouldn't be for anything less than a stud from another team that fills a need for them and most teams are holding onto their young major league players right now. I can see the pitchers being traded for salary relief but Phillips' salary isn't a hardship for the team right now. I think that article was just a random guy talking and the only thing he has right is that the Reds are being careful with their budget for next season.

Well, they're going to want to move Alonso or Votto soon just to maximize value...

So the question is:

Do you keep the surer thing in Votto and get less return for Alonso?

or

Do you trade Votto for a big haul and go with the riskier proposition of Alonso + the Votto return?

[gtown]

I think Harang/Rolen makes more sense for the O's--Votto would cost too much talent. What do you think it would take? Both players have value, but that is a lot of $$ savings for the Reds.

[mweb]

Agreed. Why are we offering so much talent to a team looking to dump salary?

I have several scenarios/basic deal frameworks:

1) Cincy is looking to cut payroll and they need a SS. We have a relatively cheap SS who is a very good defender. If AM can find a better SS, we might have an exchange here for Harang if Cincy will pick up some salary - say to keep Harang's annual cost at $10M.

2) Pie plus a prospect or two for Votto/Harang - dealing from our OF strength to land a quality producer at 1B.

That prospect or two better be quite good! Votto has a lot more value than some are giving him credit for and taking on Harang isn't going to help much imo.

[clapdiddy]

I think Harang/Rolen makes more sense for the O's--Votto would cost too much talent. What do you think it would take? Both players have value, but that is a lot of $$ savings for the Reds.

I don't understand why we would deal for just these two, though. Neither one of them are guaranteed to be here past next year if we dealt for them.

We may be able to trade one or both of them during the season, but I don't think I'd take both of these guys with their high salaries AND lose a prospect or two in the process.

[mweb]

Rolen, Harang and Votto for Arrieta, Scott, Erbe/DH, S Johnson and JJ

I'd do that without any reservations but the Reds wouldn't. You would be willing to take Harang without getting the benefit of an added player in return, and I'd be willing to do the same for Rolen. These guys aren't awful contracts that are going to be extremely difficult to move imo.