Orioles Interested In Ryan Shealy

[SilentJames]

A dark-horse, a player that could interest the O's if the Shealy deal falls thru is the Dodgers' James Loney.

James Loney had potential star player written all over him a few seasons ago before injuries (IIRC) and inconsistant play hurt his stock dramatically. But he is back very strong at AAA for them this season and may have a much higher ceiling at 1B than Shealy. This kid is only 22! Bigger risk? Probably. Bigger reward? One can only hope we find out. He is an interesting prospect.

Thoughts?

If we do end up moving Tejada I know of a 23 year old SS in the Dodgers system - Shane Justice, he was my neighbor. Just wondering if anyone had heard his name here.

back ON topic: I say go for Shealy, apparently the only reason this guy is not in the majors is he is being blocked

[Moose Milligan]

So is Shealy worth 415 posts? Jeez.

[DrungoHazewood]

So is Shealy worth 415 posts? Jeez.

Jack Cust has been good for many thousands!

[mikezpen]

I doubt if Garrett Olson has Loewen's stuff. But if you can't throw it over the plate, what good is it? I'd try to get them to take Johnson or Finch or Johnson and Finch maybe in exchange for Shealy.

But if they won't, well...

Like I say, we have to do something...

[Sports Guy]

This is quite the compelling post! Congrats. Wow!

Not really.

Here are Jon Lester's comparisons...Lester is a top 10 pitching prospect:

Ainsworth is his most comparable

Chuck Stobbs

Colby Lewis

Ryan Ketchner

Corwin Malone

And our good buddy Matt Riley is on there.

He does have a Noah Lowery high up there.

I don't think those comparison's matter much, as when they were probably done before the season(when he had only been in single A) and even if they are from this year, it is very minimal AA exposure.

[Fan4Life]

Let's look at Loewen's 6-sided die.

BP's most comparable players to Adam Loewen:

Corwin Malone

Adam Harben

Preston Larrison

Ty Howington

Luis Martinez

Phillip Dumatrait

Case closed- if Colorado sees this, they ain't rolling this die !

This is quite the compelling post! Congrats. Wow!

I don't know anything about those guys.. so is that saying Loewen is worth more, or less then Shealy?

[Fan4Life]

I would say all of those guys are failures, as prospects. Some were derailed by injuries and some had problems with command. Ainsworth may very well have been successful if he had remained healthy and he had command so that seems like an odd comparison. Those projections say TRADE Loewen for Shealy now if the Rockies will go for it.

Thanks for the info....

[rp0806]

Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but I don't have time to wade through this whole thread...why not try to add Tejada along the lines I mentioned a few days ago? i.e., trade Tejada and Loewen for Shealy, Tulowitzki, Stewart and a pitching prospect?

[Sports Guy]

Jon Lester has had 2 or 3 starts in the ML's. Let's wait a little while and see how he does. There are always exceptions to the rules. Obviously, those projections just give you a probability of success for failure. They can't predict for each player. If you are going to use BP or PECOTA or whatever then don't use them selectively. Not saying that you are. I think the probability is that Loewen will not be a #1 or #2 starter. Of course, I like it when some statistic agrees with me. If the same statistic said that Hayden Penn wouldn't be any good I would probably disregard it. So I think we need to leave our personal biases out of the equation a little more and try to be more objective.

The bottom line is whether you question Loewen or not, no one really questions Lester and he isn't being compared to many inspiring names either.

End of the day, to bring up these comparison's in regards to Loewen, Shealy or any other player who has not proven anything at the major league level is basically just posting something to make your argument look better but at the end of the day, they mean absolutely nothing.

[bigloe]

Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but I don't have time to wade through this whole thread...why not try to add Tejada along the lines I mentioned a few days ago? i.e., trade Tejada and Loewen for Shealy, Tulowitzki, Stewart and a pitching prospect?

Because Colorado probably can't take on that salary.

[Just Regular]

The other thing with the familiar and unfamiliar names on Shealy and Loewen's PECOTA comp lists is that since Shealy played in MLB last year, he got an MLB comparables list.

I'm pretty sure for guys who have not made the show yet (or at least for guys who hadn't even made the high minors, as was the case with Loewen at the end of 2005); their PECOTA comparables list is culled from a minor league season database.

[Fan4Life]

Because Colorado probably can't take on that salary.

If we can get a package from the Angels similar to SG's suggestions, as well as getting Shealy from the Rox, I'd be thrilled with that.... IF Ortiz can have two consecutive quality starts.. maybe that opens up more options.. it looks like he is scheduled to start against Atlanta this weekend... how interesting...

[Sports Guy]

I question Lester. I questioned him when he looked horrible in ST and when he got off to a slow start at AAA. Maybe he'll surprise BP and me. I'm not saying those comparison's are the be all and end all but they are interesting. As I think I said, I believe they provide a statistical probability. They don't prove anything. The player proves whether they were right or wrong. However, if you say that they mean absolutely nothing then I guess we can count on you not to ever use statistics again in trying to project what other players will do in the future.

It's pretty funny that you should say that people are just using these comparison's to make their argument look better and then throwing it out. Isn't that what we do here? Use statistics to make comparisons to help our arguments. Haven't you done this a thousand times?

It is one thing to compare a guy based on similar qualities...People use RJ as a comparison for DC, not because they think he will be that good but because he is a tall pitcher fighting command who has great stuff.

If you want to say Shealy has got great size and good power like a young Derek Lee, that's fine.

But to use stats to compare the 2 is unbelievably stupid.

I already showed what Lee was doing in a pitchers park at Shealy's age...Shealy is banging around in AAA.

If Shealy is so good, how come teams like TB or KC or Oak or teams like that aren't beating down the door for this guy?

[rp0806]

If Shealy is so good, how come teams like TB or KC or Oak or teams like that aren't beating down the door for this guy?

Why weren't teams beating down the door for Hafner? The Indians got him for almost nothing (Einar Diaz). Or look at Ryan Howard -- he didn't get a real shot until he was 25 b/c he was stuck behind Thome. Not saying Shealy is the next Hafner or Howard, but it's certainly possible that he could be a good ML hitter. The fact that he's still in the minors doesn't prove much one way or the other.

[Sports Guy]

Why weren't teams beating down the door for Hafner? The Indians got him for almost nothing (Einar Diaz). Or look at Ryan Howard -- he didn't get a real shot until he was 25 b/c he was stuck behind Thome. Not saying Shealy is the next Hafner or Howard, but it's certainly possible that he could be a good ML hitter. The fact that he's still in the minors doesn't prove much one way or the other.

Of course he could be a good ML hitter...I have said i felt he would put up OPS's in the 800-850 range.