A question for the MacPhail doubters

[Frobby]

If Snyder comes up and has a .745 OPS over 250 at bats from mid-July on, I'd be looking very hard for a solution at 1B. If he has a .830 OPS over those at bats, I'll still be looking for an upgrade, but wouldn't insist upon getting somebody there.

Interesting. What was the OPS of Markakis, Jones or Wieters after 250 at bats? I'd actually be reasonably satisfied with a .745 OPS from Snyder right out of the chute in a half-season.

[LookinUp]

Regardless, I'd still like to back up the question posed to DH and others - if it's not a good time to invest in a superstar via FA or trade BEFORE the team might produce 85 wins, and if the GM has to worry about regression IF the team gets to 85 wins, when is a good time?

I imagine the window to make that investment under some criteria is ridiculously small.

Actually, I think the window is almost always open for investing in a superstar assuming two conditions; 1) the superstar plays a position of need, and 2) the franchise is at least middle of the road prior to making that investment.

My threshold would increase a little bit, particularly with respect to #2 above, for a trade scenario.

[LookinUp]

As evidence of my ongoing support for spending money on the right guys, I think we can point to Markakis.

If we simply didn't want to spend until we were ready to compete, we would have rather traded him than sign him. Similarly, like most here, I'd have loved us to be able to sign Teixeira.

Holliday is another story altogether because he likely costs much more than he's worth AND we'd have to assume that multiple subsequent moves were on the table in anticipation of him signing just to make it make any sense at all.

[JTrea81]

Interesting. What was the OPS of Markakis, Jones or Wieters after 250 at bats? I'd actually be reasonably satisfied with a .745 OPS from Snyder right out of the chute in a half-season.

But then you have a question mark at 1B going into 2011 which is year we are supposed to compete in, correct, or are you willing to chalk up 2011 to another development year, and throw away another year of the window we have with Markakis and Roberts both under contract?

If we don't compete until 2012 we'll have two years with Roberts and one more after that with Markakis. And then if we can't extend Jones, we'll have two years with him as well. So you are looking at reducing that window with the core of our offense intact to two years.

[Stotle]

But then you have a question mark at 1B going into 2011 which is year we are supposed to compete in, correct, or are you willing to chalk up 2011 to another development year, and throw away another year of the window we have with Markakis and Roberts both under contract?

If the question mark is your #7 or #8 hitter, doesn't that mitigate it some?

[mcgraw238]

Interesting. What was the OPS of Markakis, Jones or Wieters after 250 at bats? I'd actually be reasonably satisfied with a .745 OPS from Snyder right out of the chute in a half-season.

Exactly. Wieters had a .754 OPS this past season taken as a whole. But the way he was swinging the bat the last couple months of the season gives me great hope that he will have a pretty nice jump there. I'd prefer to evaluate Snyder in the same context.

[El Gordo]

If the question mark is your #7 or #8 hitter, doesn't that mitigate it some?

No, he needs guarantees. He wants at least .900 OPS at every position.:laughlol:

[DrungoHazewood]

But then you have a question mark at 1B going into 2011 which is year we are supposed to compete in, correct, or are you willing to chalk up 2011 to another development year, and throw away another year of the window we have with Markakis and Roberts both under contract.

Every team has a few question marks. Having a young, talented first baseman who proved he could hold his own in the majors at 23 isn't a deal killer. You certainly can compete in the AL East with a first baseman who could be projected to a .775-.850 OPS.

[Frobby]

Every team has a few question marks. Having a young, talented first baseman who proved he could hold his own in the majors at 23 isn't a deal killer. You certainly can compete in the AL East with a first baseman who could be projected to a .775-.850 OPS.

I guess JTrea has forgetten the thread I wrote a month or two ago regarding all the AL East teams that went to the playoffs without a great OPS at 1B. Just in case, here are some of them:

2007: BOS .802, NYY .769

2006: NYY .804, BOS .773

2005: BOS .795

2004: BOS .813, NYY .734

2003: BOS .789

2002: BOS .661

2001: BOS .816, NYY .797

Yes, I know what JTrea will say -- Boston or NY could afford to carry a weak 1B some years because they were so strong almost everywhere else. I'm not denying there is some validity to that. That's why there'd be a judgment call to be made about 2011 if Snyder posted .745 in 250 AB in 2010. You'd have to judge how much better you thought Snyder would be in 2011, and where the rest of the offense would be.

[El Gordo]

I guess JTrea has forgetten the thread I wrote a month or two ago regarding all the AL East teams that went to the playoffs without a great OPS at 1B. Just in case, here are some of them:

2007: BOS .802, NYY .769

2006: NYY .804, BOS .773

2005: BOS .795

2004: BOS .813, NYY .734

2003: BOS .789

2002: BOS .661

2001: BOS .816, NYY .797

Yes, I know what JTrea will say -- Boston or NY could afford to carry a weak 1B some years because they were so strong almost everywhere else. I'm not denying there is some validity to that. That's why there'd be a judgment call to be made about 2011 if Snyder posted .745 in 250 AB in 2010. You'd have to judge how much better you thought Snyder would be in 2011, and where the rest of the offense would be.

Depending on how the rest of he offense is dong, I'd be inclined to give him another year given who will be available in FA the following winter.