The Great Tillman Debate

[mweb]

Guts command has been worse.

ST matters much more for young guys who don't have a job locked up than it does for proven vets. Whether you agree with that or not, it's the way things are done.

[Lucky Jim]

Maybe everyone knows this, but I'm not seeing it in the general discussion. There is a chance that Tillman isn't going to ever be a command guy, and command isn't something that can always be "sorted out". It also isn't something that necessarily prevents a pitcher from being a successful Major Leaguer if the quality of stuff is there (which it is for Tillman).

Well, there are degrees, no? Even if Tillman isn't a "command guy" - and I don't think he's going to turn into Maddux, regardless - he clearly can't live up in the zone with his FB, right? And that's what he was doing (or at least subletting there) - even against the Sox when he pitched okay.

So, if nothing else, I expect Tillman to focus on pitching down in the zone at the MiLB level. That seems fair to me.

[Lucky Jim]

I don't see how Tillman will develop dominating AAA hitters again. He needs to be facing major league hitters.

My original response was to someone saying Guthrie has a proven track record of command while Tillman does not, I was pointing out that that isn't exactly true.

Oh. I thought this was the year were the games mattered.

I would have thought they have given the 5 starting spots to the best 5 starters.

Tillman is going to embarrass AAA hitters until DT takes one of the 5 starters out of that role.

I just hope Tillman learns something in his time at AAA (at least they can manage his IP count so he hits 185 ips total). Unfortunately, I don't think Tillman is going to get anything in return from facing AAA talent.

There is nothing that says that Tillman can't work on pitching down in the zone at the MiLB level, even if he's dominant. Literally nothing.

[TyCobb]

Maybe everyone knows this, but I'm not seeing it in the general discussion. There is a chance that Tillman isn't going to ever be a command guy, and command isn't something that can always be "sorted out". It also isn't something that necessarily prevents a pitcher from being a successful Major Leaguer if the quality of stuff is there (which it is for Tillman).

You brought up Lincecum. It isn't like that guy hits his spots every time out and he got 2 Cys. He actually won a CY Young with a 3.33 BB/9. His first year he had a 4.0 BB/9 and was still able to have a 3.63 FIP.

When your stuff is as good as Tillman you pretty much just need to work both sides of the plate and not go down the middle belt high.

[LookinUp]

An observation.

The "big 3" were Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta. In the rotation this opening day will be Matusz, Bergesen and Hernandez.

There are many potential discussion points here, but I just find it refreshing that we still have two of the big three in the minors, another two high upside guys beating on the door (Erbe, Britton), and a third potentially solid guy in the minors (Berken). It's true that Arrieta and Tillman have hit small bumps in the road, but it's equally true that the O's are starting to earn a serious reputation as an organization that can develop pitching.

[Sports Guy]

You brought up Lincecum. It isn't like that guy hits his spots every time out and he got 2 Cys. He actually won a CY Young with a 3.33 BB/9. His first year he had a 4.0 BB/9 and was still able to have a 3.63 FIP.

When your stuff is as good as Tillman you pretty much just need to work both sides of the plate and not go down the middle belt high.

Tillman has very good stuff but you overrate it...at least in its present form.

His fastball isn't great and his curveball and change aren't consistent enough yet. They all have potential to be plus plus pitches but not yet.

[Mackus]

When your stuff is as good as Tillman you pretty much just need to work both sides of the plate and not go down the middle belt high.

Which is exactly what Tillman struggles with.

I'd prefer to see him in the MLB rotation, but this idea that he has nothing left to work on or that the AAA level will not help him at all is a bit much. I think he'd be better suited to pitch against MLB hitters than AAA hitters, but he isn't going to revert back to just throwing his fastball at the belt by AAA hitters, he's going to go down there and work on the things they tell him to work on, and in the interim, we get to see how much progress Hernandez has made and if he can be a long-term fixture in the rotation.

[TyCobb]

There is nothing that says that Tillman can't work on pitching down in the zone at the MiLB level, even if he's dominant. Literally nothing.

Pitching down is the most overused term in the game today. Hitters hit the ball down all the time. It isn't like Tillman throws a sinker or has a 2-seamer the dives out of the strikezone.

MLB hitters were sitting middle/outside FB all year long at the MLB level.

Tillman needs to stay away from the middle of the plate. He needs to throw the ball inside as much as he does outside. He needs to learn how to sequence his pitches. AAA players can't hit his stuff.

[Sports Guy]

Which is exactly what Tillman struggles with.

I'd prefer to see him in the MLB rotation, but this idea that he has nothing left to work on or that the AAA level will not help him at all is a bit much. I think he'd be better suited to pitch against MLB hitters than AAA hitters, but he isn't going to revert back to just throwing his fastball at the belt by AAA hitters, he's going to go down there and work on the things they tell him to work on, and in the interim, we get to see how much progress Hernandez has made and if he can be a long-term fixture in the rotation.

Well that depends...Is he able to get by on what he has and dominate AAA hitters? If he can, he may not learn much down there.

[Stotle]

Well, there are degrees, no? Even if Tillman isn't a "command guy" - and I don't think he's going to turn into Maddux, regardless - he clearly can't live up in the zone with his FB, right? And that's what he was doing (or at least subletting there) - even against the Sox when he pitched okay.

So, if nothing else, I expect Tillman to focus on pitching down in the zone at the MiLB level. That seems fair to me.

Yes, there are degrees. No, it isn't always possible to simply "work down in the zone". Some people can do it, some people can't. As I said earlier, I haven't seen his mechanics this year, nor do I have inside info on what specifically BAL wants him to work on. Either way, it isn't a matter of working on pitching down, it's likely a matter of working on some aspect of his delivery that allows him to pitch down in the zone. A subtlety, I know, but an important one.

Command is generally a function of repeatability and feel (which are, in a way, intertwined). Maybe there is something specific Tillman will be working on, and maybe it's something that he stands a good chance of being successful with. And maybe not.

[Mackus]

Well that depends...Is he able to get by on what he has and dominate AAA hitters? If he can, he may not learn much down there.

Its his job to make sure he is working on what they tell him to work on. If all he does is coast by on his more refined skills and doesn't work on improving the secondary ones, then that's on him and he'll stay in the minors for longer.

When to call him up won't be a statistical thing, it'll be a scouting thing. When the scouts and coaches see that he has put in the work to make strides in the areas they've told him to work on, then he'll be back. If he's just dominating overmatched hitters with the same old stuff and not trying to work on the more nuanced parts of his game, then they'll leave him down there (unless an injury or poor performance mandates we call him up even if he isn't cooperating).

I fully expect him to go down there and do exactly what they are telling him to do, though. I don't get any sense of "I'm gonna do it my way because I can" vibe from Tillman.

[Stotle]

Pitching down is the most overused term in the game today. Hitters hit the ball down all the time. It isn't like Tillman throws a sinker or has a 2-seamer the dives out of the strikezone.

MLB hitters were sitting middle/outside FB all year long at the MLB level.

Tillman needs to stay away from the middle of the plate. He needs to throw the ball inside as much as he does outside. He needs to learn how to sequence his pitches. AAA players can't hit his stuff.

I generally agree with this, though his sequences seemed pretty solid the few games I saw at AAA (not to mention a big part of that is simply game planning). I echo my earlier post that it's fine to say he needs to work on not hitting the middle of the plate, but recognizing it and actually being able to do anything about it are two different things. I'm looking forward to seeing him in April to see how he looks.

[Lucky Jim]

Yes, there are degrees. No, it isn't always possible to simply "work down in the zone". Some people can do it, some people can't. As I said earlier, I haven't seen his mechanics this year, nor do I have inside info on what specifically BAL wants him to work on. Either way, it isn't a matter of working on pitching down, it's likely a matter of working on some aspect of his delivery that allows him to pitch down in the zone. A subtlety, I know, but an important one.

Command is generally a function of repeatability and feel (which are, in a way, intertwined). Maybe there is something specific Tillman will be working on, and maybe it's something that he stands a good chance of being successful with. And maybe not.

To address both this and TyCobb's posts: is it possible for Tillman to be successful if he cannot locate up/down, in/out? Can he be successful w/ last year's location? His fastball looked very hittable against the Red Sox. Which is the only reason why I'm not upset about the demotion.

[TyCobb]

Tillman has very good stuff but you overrate it...at least in its present form.

His fastball isn't great and his curveball and change aren't consistent enough yet. They all have potential to be plus plus pitches but not yet.

This is where you wrong. His PitchFX data already says his stuff is great.

[Mackus]

This is where you wrong. His PitchFX data already says his stuff is great.

PitchFX doesn't prove anything. Its a tool, not a solution's guide.

Tillman's got some electric stuff, but his consistency isn't where it needs to be yet.