A disturbing trend in the FO

[Mark Carver]

TO be honest, i am not in the mood to go back, locate the standings for last year and see who needed a closer to make a playoff run.

However, we have seen closers get alot at the deadline before and Ryan was better than they were...The Mets, for example, probably would have paid alot for him last year.

The Mets were 53-52, 8 GB, in 5th place at the trading deadline.

Here's the standing as of July 31, 2005 for you...

July 31, 2005 Standings

[Sapper]

Taking my post out of context makes it fairly easy to criticize. No you didn't suggest that. But what you suggest the FO does wrong by holding onto players progresses logically into a discussion about our current rising stars and how to gauge their value v their potential. It's easy for you to say what the FO should have done.....

There is not one person on that list I didn't mention AT LEAST as far back as last October. So stop trying to say I'm saying this in hindsight.

[AgentOrange]

The Mets were 53-52, 8 GB, in 5th place at the trading deadline.

Here's the standing as of July 31, 2005 for you...

July 31, 2005 Standings

I don't think this is an argument for or against...

[billyc123]

There is not one person on that list I didn't mention AT LEAST as far back as last October. So stop trying to say I'm saying this in hindsight.

I wasn't the first to write hindsight , but since you're not shy about pointing out how right you were & how early you said it, let me say this: what's the point? Did you really start a whole thread just to show everyone how smart you are & how you know more than the FO? If so, then let me be the first to agree with you, based upon the historical evidence of your own post :002_ssuprised: you've offered in defense of yourself being the smartest.

If, on the other hand, you were making a legitimate critique of the way the FO does business, shouldn't we be on to discussing which from among the players on our roster now we should be trying to move? What good does it do us to rehash last offseason? (when, for the record, Javy & Tejada were not, for all intensive purposes, trade-able) Shouldn't we be looking ahead?

[Fan4Life]

The Mets were 53-52, 8 GB, in 5th place at the trading deadline.

Here's the standing as of July 31, 2005 for you...

July 31, 2005 Standings

We were only 8 games out as well.... so it is tough to say what we should have done with Ryan... we we'ren't sure about our own ability to contend at that point.... but we did know if we were going to contend, we would need Ryan.

[ejf1025]

Sapper makes some valid points...

I vehemently disagree about Roberts/Bedard, but there is a very good argument to support him for the others.

Personally, I just don't think people want/wanted Javy Lopez. RLo needs to be traded, probably should have been, but his performance has been so bad I just don't know if he has any value. I've been a proponent of trading Tejada. Mora in a strictly business sense should have been traded too. But with all the PR hits they've taken, I don't really consider locking him up a bad move. I think he does carry some useful off the field things and its not like he's bad on the field either. Maybe not worth the contract, but he's not a disaster.

In the end, its the same song and dance. You develop your own pitching and the rest falls into place.

[mweb]

I partially agree with Sapper and partially agree with his opposition. Some of those guys I would have liked to trade(Miggy, Rodrigo, possibly Bedard, and Mora only if Miggy is traded) if we could have gotten back what I thought we could have. Some of them, ok only one of them(Ryan) I would have liked to lock up. The others guys I would have kept unless we were blown away with an offer. Javy would be someone I would trade this month if we can get something decent for, same with Hawkins. Would consider trading Benson if we had a very good offer to mull over. Would trade Millar and/or Conine rather willingly.

[osfan83]

If I really thought we could compete next year, I would say keep Miggy, and Mora. But I'm starting to think 2007 will be more of the same. I don't think Miggy will be part of the next above .500 O's team, so lets move him while we can and build around Roberts, Markakis, Ray, and maybe Bedard, Loewen and possibly DCab if he ever improves.

Even though Mora has a no trade clause, he may agree to a deal next year if he gets the chance to play for a contender.

So far we have seen nothing to make us think this team can win 85 games next year, and thats what it's going to take to be in the race.

[Flosman]

Sapper is absolutely correct for some of these guys...Most of us are not as delusional as you in thinking that Javy Lopez is worth 10 wins more than a replacement or that inning 83 games as opposed to 78 games is going to make a damn bit of difference to FA.

I don't agree with trading Bedard or BRob, now or then but the other guys he mentioned, he is 1000% correct on.

SG he is not correct and you can't claim to be either, without additional information. Without knowing who you get back you can't say who is correct. We have no idea what was offered for BJ Ryan, I would think his value should have been high, but I would need to know who the players we turned down before judging the situation. Say someone offered a package LIKE John Maine, Dustin Yount and Tripper Johnson for a 3 month rental last year. In a case like that the O's FO would be correct in turning the offer down. The picks have more potential of having a impact on the big league team than three prospects that will not likely have any real impact at the MLB level. I am one that thinks no one is untouchable and really no one has to be traded. If value can be gotten then you make the move if not you don't. It really is not about selling high or low it is improving and maintaining the level of talent in your system, sometimes this can be done by a trade and sometimes not trading is the way to go. I have said before it is like playing poker, you don't know all the facts, but you can make judgements about the situation and effect the outcome by playing the hand the best way you can after the cards are dealt. What you propose is playing blind, which eventually gets you broke.

[Sapper]

If I really thought we could compete next year, I would say keep Miggy, and Mora. But I'm starting to think 2007 will be more of the same. I don't think Miggy will be part of the next above .500 O's team, so lets move him while we can and build around Roberts, Markakis, Ray, and maybe Bedard, Loewen and possibly DCab if he ever improves.

Even though Mora has a no trade clause, he may agree to a deal next year if he gets the chance to play for a contender.

So far we have seen nothing to make us think this team can win 85 games next year, and thats what it's going to take to be in the race.

Agreed. I was hoping that at least this year would be a bridge to better 2007 and 2008. But that is even seeming to be bleak. Every year that goes by cries out more and more for "blow it up" to me.

[Sapper]

Great post.

This IS true.

However, it is easy to look at a team one year and say that, "We should definately NOT trade these guys," and look back a year later and ask, "Why didn't we trade those guys?"

That's the nature of the game.

Look at Rodrigo Lopez. He stunk up the first month and a half, and we were wondering if we should just take him out on Eutaw Street and shoot him, then he has six of eight good starts and is one of our better starters over that span, and we need him in the rotation. And either place we have no idea what teams are offering for him.

The point is, 1) you can't just say, "We should have traded a guy back then," as there were likley reasons WHY they weren't dealt, and 2) we don't know what teams are offering in most cases until a deal is done. Even the information we get, as important and appreciated as it is, is usually either wrong, or at the least comes to naught (which is the same whether it is bigbird and Wild Bill, or Peter Gammons and Ken Rosenthal).

I'm pointing out the trend I'm noticing. The only reason I am saying that I said it before is to counter the people who are claiming my criticism is based solely on "hindsight". It's not. Holding onto players too long has predictably bad results -- and they were predictable.

We can't continue to do the same in the future. So toward that end, even though their value is much less than the max we could have gotten, right now I'd trade:

Tejada

Mora -- if he'd waive the NTC (gawd how awful a mistake)

Javy -- for a bag of BP balls

Conine, if anyone wants him

Millar -- if anyone wants him

I'd probably hold onto these guys:

Roberts -- his value NOW is much lower than his potential

Bedard -- value has dropped from last Spring. Might as well see what we have

CPat -- Potential > value

Lopez -- his value has dropped so far you have to wait on him too

DCab - potential > value

Penn, Markakis, Ray Loewen -- All top quality prospects/players that we can possibly build around

[hoosiers]

Agreed. I was hoping that at least this year would be a bridge to better 2007 and 2008. But that is even seeming to be bleak. Every year that goes by cries out more and more for "blow it up" to me.

I have mixed feelings about the general post. I dislike thoughts that we should have trades high potential/above average pre-free agent talents like BRob and Bedard. I have little issue trading Miggy (or saying we should have traded Mora), but I'm not sure why anyone is getting on their soapbox about dealing Javy (unless that person did not want to sign him in the first place). What could we have received for Javy? The interest in him is zippo and has been for a bit.

Regarding giving up on 2007 and 2008, I think that is inappropriate. Loewen and Penn are showing some good signs as is Markakis. If this team finds above average production at 1B and DH, it could compete in 07 and 08 without stretching the imagination too much.

[Sports Guy]

SG he is not correct and you can't claim to be either, without additional information. Without knowing who you get back you can't say who is correct. We have no idea what was offered for BJ Ryan, I would think his value should have been high, but I would need to know who the players we turned down before judging the situation. Say someone offered a package LIKE John Maine, Dustin Yount and Tripper Johnson for a 3 month rental last year. In a case like that the O's FO would be correct in turning the offer down. The picks have more potential of having a impact on the big league team than three prospects that will not likely have any real impact at the MLB level. I am one that thinks no one is untouchable and really no one has to be traded. If value can be gotten then you make the move if not you don't. It really is not about selling high or low it is improving and maintaining the level of talent in your system, sometimes this can be done by a trade and sometimes not trading is the way to go. I have said before it is like playing poker, you don't know all the facts, but you can make judgements about the situation and effect the outcome by playing the hand the best way you can after the cards are dealt. What you propose is playing blind, which eventually gets you broke.

The Orioles didn't even know what to ask for Ryan...That we know. There is no way that package would be the past we could get.

[Sports Guy]

I have mixed feelings about the general post. I dislike thoughts that we should have trades high potential/above average pre-free agent talents like BRob and Bedard. I have little issue trading Miggy (or saying we should have traded Mora), but I'm not sure why anyone is getting on their soapbox about dealing Javy (unless that person did not want to sign him in the first place). What could we have received for Javy? The interest in him is zippo and has been for a bit.

Regarding giving up on 2007 and 2008, I think that is inappropriate. Loewen and Penn are showing some good signs as is Markakis. If this team finds above average production at 1B and DH, it could compete in 07 and 08 without stretching the imagination too much.

Would that have been the case if we traded him before the DBacks and Mets traded for their catchers????

[Sapper]

I have mixed feelings about the general post. I dislike thoughts that we should have trades high potential/above average pre-free agent talents like BRob and Bedard. I have little issue trading Miggy (or saying we should have traded Mora), but I'm not sure why anyone is getting on their soapbox about dealing Javy (unless that person did not want to sign him in the first place). What could we have received for Javy? The interest in him is zippo and has been for a bit......

Are you saying that at the trade deadline last year with all the lack of decent hitting catchers in the League that we couldn't have gotten anything for him?

Maybe there's no interest in him NOW but we were out of it before the deadline last year. And then we went a signed Hernandez this fall. So why did we hang onto Javy? I don't get it. You can't tell me someone wouldn't have wanted a decent hitting catcher last summer. And his value was still high then.