Orioles... The Likeliest First-Round Candidates

[PBR Street Gang]

FWIW, what was Justin Pedroyer's scouting report/draft projection? If the draft was redone he'd be top 5. No?

[PBR Street Gang]

3. ORIOLES (John). To borrow a phrase from Dayton Moore, Orioles fans have to trust the process. It's taking longer than it seems like it should, but Baltimore is rebuilding and has strong pieces up the middle in Adam Jones and Matt Wieters. Adding Manny Machado with this pick would make too much sense. The organization has a giant hole at shortstop, though Machado isn't a need pick—he's the best player on the board. There's an argument to be made for Mississippi lefthander Drew Pomeranz, who could move quickly and be an effective complement to Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Co. But Baltimore's inability to develop a shortstop, combined with Machado's defensive tools and power potential, make him the best choice here.

Unless Machado has Ozzie D skills or even (lets make it easy) Derek(HGH)Jeter O skills we should pass on him. When he runs he looks like Brandon Fahey and it creeps me out. I don't equate Fahey to a top 3 pick in the MLB first year player draft. Machado doesn't look like an athlete. Sorry.

[allstar1579]

From what I've read, teams are just as likely to get the best(second best) player in the draft at pick 20 as pick 2.

Pomeranz walk rate is scary for a "developed" arm. Folty might be the best of all of them, but he'd be a "reach" no? Our (O's fans) lot is to take the next best big thing that conventional wisdom says we should.

Would you rather have Matt Cain or Adam Loewen right now? Wade Townsend or Jared Weaver or Phil Hughes? Billy Rowell or Joe Jordan greatest miss? Matt Hobgood or A.) B.) C.) D.) or E.)?

I'm worried. None of us will know for months whether it's a "great" pick.

Close, I have seen that same sentiment, however it's as pick 3 because Taillon is excluded from that group in pretty much every observation I've seen/read.

[clarence]

If Taillon isn't there, I hope we don't sign the pick and take the 4th pick next year in what many consider to be a better draft. We need a potential difference maker in this high of a pick and I just don't think there is one from almost all reports. If there isn't a difference in 3-15, wait until next year when there is.

I really don't care for all the one year in the system talk. I would rather wait a year and sign two players with more upside next year. Also, maybe they would step up then and sign some more kids from the Dominican.

[Stotle]

I agree. I am just saying that I get the impression from BA that Cox is a Top 10 pick, so I don't think its that much of a stretch.

By the way, in their latest pseudo-mock draft conducted by 3 BA writers, John Manual has us picking Machado after Pittsburg picks Taillon :

3. ORIOLES (John). To borrow a phrase from Dayton Moore, Orioles fans have to trust the process. It's taking longer than it seems like it should, but Baltimore is rebuilding and has strong pieces up the middle in Adam Jones and Matt Wieters. Adding Manny Machado with this pick would make too much sense. The organization has a giant hole at shortstop, though Machado isn't a need pick—he's the best player on the board. There's an argument to be made for Mississippi lefthander Drew Pomeranz, who could move quickly and be an effective complement to Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Co. But Baltimore's inability to develop a shortstop, combined with Machado's defensive tools and power potential, make him the best choice here.

Respect Manuel, but how does he reconcile "BAL has trouble developing a shortstop" and "BAL should pick an unrefined HS shortstop"????

[PBR Street Gang]

If Taillon isn't there, I hope we don't sign the pick and take the 4th pick next year in what many consider to be a better draft. We need a potential difference maker in this high of a pick and I just don't think there is one from almost all reports. If there isn't a difference in 3-15, wait until next year when there is.

I really don't care for all the one year in the system talk. I would rather wait a year and sign two players with more upside next year. Also, maybe they would step up then and sign some more kids from the Dominican.

It could be argued that there is some good business wisdom in this post.

[allstar1579]

What consensus talent at SS have the Orioles failed to develop? They just haven't drafted or signed a talented SS. I realize that people are down on the Orioles' minor league development team but I'm not sure there is evidence to support this one.

It's not developing a consensus talent, it's developing a talent at all. Look around the league you'll see plenty of guys that were unheralded, or low draft picks that went on to do something productive. Scutaro. Bartlett. Gonzalez. C. Guillen. A. Ramirez. Aviles....I could keep going but it's getting late.

[RVAbird]

Believe me when I say I am not trying to spark some immature banter or anything like that.

I'm genuinely curious, who do you think will be available at 1:3 that is a "franchise changer?" I'm surmising from your posting history that you think that's Pomeranz? How do you project him?

From what I've read, teams are just as likely to get the best(second best) player in the draft at pick 20 as pick 2.

Pomeranz walk rate is scary for a "developed" arm. Folty might be the best of all of them, but he'd be a "reach" no? Our (O's fans) lot is to take the next best big thing that conventional wisdom says we should.

Would you rather have Matt Cain or Adam Loewen right now? Wade Townsend or Jared Weaver or Phil Hughes? Billy Rowell or Joe Jordan greatest miss? Matt Hobgood or A.) B.) C.) D.) or E.)?

I'm worried. None of us will know for months whether it's a "great" pick.

You didn't answer my question(s).

I asked who you thought was a "franchise-changer" pick at 1:3 and how you projected Pomeranz.

[Stotle]

What consensus talent at SS have the Orioles failed to develop? They just haven't drafted or signed a talented SS. I realize that people are down on the Orioles' minor league development team but I'm not sure there is evidence to support this one.

I am not making a statement about BAL's development. I'm questioning Manuel's reasoning. If he believes BAL has trouble developing shortstops, why would he think that Machado is a good fit? Wouldn't BAL instead be better served by taking someone like Rutledge, who is already almost fully-baked? Just didn't understand the writing/reasoning.

[PBR Street Gang]

You didn't answer my question(s).

I asked who you thought was a "franchise-changer" pick at 1:3 and how you projected Pomeranz.

Sorry about the non-answer/answer.

There probably isn't a franchise player at 1-3 this year. In fact I doubt there is a franchise changer besides Harper projected in the top 5. Taillon, Machado, Pomeranz, et al. The franchise changer will probably be someone no one is talking about for the first round like a Pujols.

Pomeranz will be in the majors next year with the Royals or Pirates and will be a league average MLB pitcher during his service time.

Good enough?

[mcgraw238]

3. Baltimore – Jameson Taillon, The Woodlands High School

This one is somewhat of a no-brainer for the Orioles, who like the Pirates, have a lot of holes to fill. Taillon is a pretty special right-handed pitcher that scouts like as much as non-college arm EVER and that includes guys like Josh Beckett. Taillon has a great pitchers body at 6’5 225 and a better repertoire. His power-fastball has been clocked as high as 99, and he throws a mid-80s hammer curve ball. He also works a quality slider and change-up, pitches that could become real weapons as they develop. Taillon is a rare-breed and is head and shoulders above other arms in this draft. The only negative for the Orioles here is the price tag he comes with as he is said to be looking to surpass Beckett’s 7 million dollar big league deal about a decade ago. The O’s have gone toe to toe with high priced players before (see Matt Wieters) and will be able to draw Taillon away from his Rice commitment at the signing deadline in August.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/401134-2010-mlb-mock-draft-top-10-picks

[bluehens45]

If Tallion is off the board i would much rather see us go with Karsten Whitson over Pomeranz. In the ideal situation we draft Tallion and sign one the top Int. SS's. Something tells me we arent real big on Machado. But then again if its me and Tallion is off the board im taking Josh Sale or Austin Wilson.

[QBsILLEST1]

If Tallion is off the board i would much rather see us go with Karsten Whitson over Pomeranz. In the ideal situation we draft Tallion and sign one the top Int. SS's. Something tells me we arent real big on Machado. But then again if its me and Tallion is off the board im taking Josh Sale or Austin Wilson.

I would be 50/50 between Whitson and Machado. But honestly, I may even consider taking Covey at slot or below and just going heavy heavy in overslotters IF Taillon was gone.

Sale and Wilson have tremendous power potential, but that would be an incredible overdraft in my eyes.....

[rhall]

Respect Manuel, but how does he reconcile "BAL has trouble developing a shortstop" and "BAL should pick an unrefined HS shortstop"????

I got the impression that Manuel was saying that we don't have much talent at SS, not that we can't develop that talent. That doesn't mean we can develop it or that Manuel thinks we can, but that's how I read it.

[bluehens45]

I would be 50/50 between Whitson and Machado. But honestly, I may even consider taking Covey at slot or below and just going heavy heavy in overslotters IF Taillon was gone.

Sale and Wilson have tremendous power potential, but that would be an incredible overdraft in my eyes.....

I like Whitson more then Machado. I actually prefer Colon to Machado. To me Machado is Mike Moustakas with less power potential. I think he is a guy that is going to out grow SS and not have enough power for 3B. I do like Machado but not at number 3 more in the 20's. It just seems like all Helium to me.