Seriously...what is up with Wieters?

[Sports Guy]

This is his first full year in the majors, people.

And?

Last yar, he played 4 months, showed good progress to end the year and end up with a 753 OPS...This year, he has sucked from day 1, outside of a good stretch in July.

This is also Buster Posey's first year. We have seen plenty of catchers come up and play well.

This is Stanton and Heyward's first year as well.

Wieters was a premium level guy, who was an advanced college player that tore up the minors. He absolutely should be showing a lot more at this point in his career. He has regressed from last year...That's not a good sign.

He has no bat speed and isn't hitting the ball with any authority.

Again, its not that he can never be what we thought he could be but he is a monster disappointment thus far.

[wildcard]

For some reason, the Os always need to have more patience than most. Why is it that our guys never come up and show anything? I mean...it's not just that MW is struggling. He looks terrible at the plate. There are really no flashes of power. The XBH aren't there. The good ABs aren't really there. There's just nothing. Struggles would be understandable. But when virtually everyone in baseball expects you be "Mauer with Power", you'd expect to see something at the plate...right?

Its Hot. 90-100 degrees. Humid. He has catching gear on. He squats for 9 innings and then does it again the next night. He takes foul ball off every part of his body. He is young. Has not been through it before. His legs have no spring in them because they needs rest. This is why most catchers are not hitters. Mauer is the exception.

If you want Wieters to hit to his potential, rest him more. Plain and simple.

[Hank Scorpio]

And?

Last yar, he played 4 months, showed good progress to end the year and end up with a 753 OPS...This year, he has sucked from day 1, outside of a good stretch in July.

This is also Buster Posey's first year. We have seen plenty of catchers come up and play well.

This is Stanton and Heyward's first year as well.

Wieters was a premium level guy, who was an advanced college player that tore up the minors. He absolutely should be showing a lot more at this point in his career. He has regressed from last year...That's not a good sign.

He has no bat speed and isn't hitting the ball with any authority.

Again, its not that he can never be what we thought he could be but he is a monster disappointment thus far.

Nevermind.

[Sports Guy]

Its Hot. 90-100 degrees. Humid. He has catching gear on. He squats for 9 innings and then does it again the next night. He takes foul ball off every part of his body. He is young. Has not been through it before. His legs have no spring in them because they needs rest. This is why most catchers are not hitters. Mauer is the exception.

If you want Wieters to hit to his potential, rest him more. Plain and simple.

How many games a year do you think Wieters should catch?

[Mackus]

Its Hot. 90-100 degrees. Humid. He has catching gear on. He squats for 9 innings and then does it again the next night. He takes foul ball off every part of his body. He is young. Has not been through it before. His legs have no spring in them because they needs rest. This is why most catchers are not hitters. Mauer is the exception.

If you want Wieters to hit to his potential, rest him more. Plain and simple.

I just can't support the argument that the only or even the primary reason he hasn't been hitting is because he's been catching a lot. He's sucked because he's hit terribly, not because he needs more rest. While it certainly may be a factor, I think its way too simplistic to essentially just be saying that "if he was only playing 4 games a week, he'd be hitting .300 with a .850+ OPS".

[maudibjr]

He does seem to be much more upset with himself when he hits a slow grounder or pops up than earlier.

He is disappointing from what was expected of him, but that just means he is league average.

[Araqnid]

FWIW, as of tonight's game, he'll have played 96 games both last season and this season:

G   AB   R   H   2B   3B   HR   RBI   BB   K   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS 96  354 35  102  15    1    9    43   28   86   0    0  .288  .340  .412  .753   95  330 29  80   13    1    9    38   39   68   0    1  .242  .323  .370  .693

Basically, the big differences are more walks and less strikeouts (good), fewer hits (bad) and a slight regression in power (really bad).

[wildcard]

How many games a year do you think Wieters should catch?

Its not only how many, its how many in a row.

If you want him to hit like to his potential, at this stage of his career. Under 100 and not more then three days in a row.

He in on a pace for 118 starts this year while catching some part of 125 games. And that is with being on the DL for 15 days which means he plays a lot of game in a row.

Mauer has averaged 111 games catching over 5 years. Wieters needs to grow into that workload if you want him to hit well.

[wildcard]

You keep saying it's plain and simple. It's not. You are 100% sure that all of Wieters' struggles are due to tired legs?

Pretty darn sure. Legs are a major part of hitting. It effects bat speed. The ability to drive the ball. Wieters has the talent, he is just too beat up to achieve the level of performance he could if he had more rest.

[davearm]

Of course he can still be that guy. Anyone writing him off at this point is clueless.

He's been a big disappointment so far. But that's only so far.

Well said Mack. The book's far, far from closed on Wieters.

In fact I anticipate in a few years Wieters will be playing at an allstar level, and SportsGuy will be razzing me for predicting Wieters would be a bust, all the while oblivious to the fact that that's not what I'm saying at all.

Earlier SG mentioned Starlin Castro. I hope he blossoms into the next Derek Jeter. I don't expect that he will, and I for sure don't assume it.

From my perspective, too many folks here (not everyone of course) assumed Weiters would become the next Joe Mauer, and in the process largely dismissed the less rosy scenarios.

[flashjordnk]

FWIW, as of tonight's game, he'll have played 96 games both last season and this season:

G   AB   R   H   2B   3B   HR   RBI   BB   K   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS 96  354 35  102  15    1    9    43   28   86   0    0  .288  .340  .412  .753   95  330 29  80   13    1    9    38   39   68   0    1  .242  .323  .370  .693

Basically, the big differences are more walks and less strikeouts (good), fewer hits (bad) and a slight regression in power (really bad).

Ummm...how is a slight regression in power really bad?

From a peripherals stand point you can't hate what you see here. BABIP in 2009 was 356. His LD% is actually only 3% lower this year. In similar games he's got 9 more ground balls and 9 less line drives. I'd say this should probably drop his BABIP about 35 points (no science here just a guess). But his BABIP is actually 76 points less than last year or 280.

He has 2 less doubles the same number of homers and triples and 7% more of his balls put into play turn into outs than last year.

It's tough to say that slight regression is really bad given those. His K% is down. His BB% is up. If he keeps walking more and striking out less, I think that's progress that you don't see in his overall slash line.

Maybe this makes me an apologist. But I do think a bit of bad luck has played a part here.

This is off topic. But...he's seen 100 less pitches this year but has 9 more walks than last year. I see that being weird, but I'm not sure what it means. If anyone cares to add.

[MikeAD]

FWIW, as of tonight's game, he'll have played 96 games both last season and this season:

G   AB   R   H   2B   3B   HR   RBI   BB   K   SB   CS   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS 96  354 35  102  15    1    9    43   28   86   0    0  .288  .340  .412  .753   95  330 29  80   13    1    9    38   39   68   0    1  .242  .323  .370  .693

Basically, the big differences are more walks and less strikeouts (good), fewer hits (bad) and a slight regression in power (really bad).

Nice post...that is really weird. Less strike outs and more BBs and a lower OBP and avg. Interesting. Theres very little in the progression (outside of those two numbers: less Ks more BBs) that you would want in any second year prospect, let alone one of your top ones (and one of the top ones in all of MLB). I still have hopes he can turn it around, at worst hes a better than average catcher, which is by no means a bad thing.

[Going Underground]

If you look at BA Top 100 over the years,most players do not make it. 60 to 65% percent have a cup of coffee. 25% became decent players and about 10% become elite players. That is why they are called prospects. Wieters is still a work in progress and could go either way.

[H0smash]

Nice post...that is really weird. Less strike outs and more BBs and a lower OBP and avg. Interesting. Theres very little in the progression (outside of those two numbers: less Ks more BBs) that you would want in any second year prospect, let alone one of your top ones (and one of the top ones in all of MLB). I still have hopes he can turn it around, at worst hes a better than average catcher, which is by no means a bad thing.

Actually his OBP is better than last year as far as the difference in BAvg and OBP, but since he has such a lower BAvg from last year that makes up the difference and results in a lower overall OBP. His discipline appears to be getting better, while his hitting has regressed a lot. Hopefully he can correct that.

[Mackus]

If you look at BA Top 100 over the years,most players do not make it. 60 to 65% percent have a cup of coffee. 25% became decent players and about 10% become elite players. That is why they are called prospects. Wieters is still a work in progress and could go either way.

Wieters wasn't just top 100, though. He was top 1.

Not all of those players become All Stars, look at recent guys like Delmon Young and Jay Bruce who have been solid but not amazing, but the expectations are valid.