Seriously...what is up with Wieters?

[wildcard]

How many backup catchers have a .650 OPS or higher?

There aren't 30 good starting catchers in baseball, yet alone enough for teams to find good backups.

Well the way it is now Wieters OPS is 693 and Tatum is 640. So they are both bad hitting catchers. At least limiting Wieters time behind the plate may get him to hit well for 500 at bats between catching and DHing. That would be a huge improvement.

[Ohfan67]

From my perspective, too many folks here (not everyone of course) assumed Weiters would become the next Joe Mauer, and in the process largely dismissed the less rosy scenarios.

Of course we all did. We're rabid fans of a pathetic, losing team and a disfunctional organization, Wieters was hyped beyond belief, and then he delivered on the hype in the minor leagues. He WAS superman in 2008. What the heck kind of fan wouldn't have incredibly high expectations for this guy? Matt Wieters was the best news and biggest hope that fans of this pathetic team had received in years. We live and die with the freakin' Orioles. This isn't just some sabermetric exercise.

[davearm]

Of course we all did. We're rabid fans of a pathetic, losing team and a disfunctional organization, Wieters was hyped beyond belief, and then he delivered on the hype in the minor leagues. He WAS superman in 2008. What the heck kind of fan wouldn't have incredibly high expectations for this guy? Matt Wieters was the best news and biggest hope that fans of this pathetic team had received in years. We live and die with the freakin' Orioles. This isn't just some sabermetric exercise.

I hear that. But rabid fandom and rational thinking need not be mutually exclusive.

[Icterus galbula]

I hear that. But rabid fandom and rational thinking need not be mutually exclusive.

Do you think that there are fanbases who, by and large, would have taken the Wieters hype in stride and not expected "too much" by your estimation? What fanbase wouldn't have gotten ahead of themselves after Wieters MiL stats, BP's projections, BA's scouting reports, etc etc?

[davearm]

Do you think that there are fanbases who, by and large, would have taken the Wieters hype in stride and not expected "too much" by your estimation? What fanbase wouldn't have gotten ahead of themselves after Wieters MiL stats, BP's projections, BA's scouting reports, etc etc?

Yes and frankly with as many failed prospects as you guys have seen, I would've expected more skepticism/pessimism right here.

I don't mean that to be incendiary, but it's true. This is hardly the first time this has happened. Wieters is just the latest and highest-profile O's prospect to underwhelm.

[Tony-OH]

I hear that. But rabid fandom and rational thinking need not be mutually exclusive.

And to think you thought Rich Hill was as good or better than Erik Bedard and Matt Murton was as good as Nick Markakis. At least you can be rational...

[davearm]

And to think you thought Rich Hill was as good or better than Erik Bedard and Matt Murton was as good as Nick Markakis. At least you can be rational...

Murton's smoking Markakis this year.

Murton: .336/.381/.498/.879

Markakis: .290/.370/.437/.806

[weams]

Murton's smoking Markakis this year.

Murton: .336/.381/.498/.879

Markakis: .290/.370/.437/.806

So is Craig Brazell, .302 35 HR 79 0.34

[Icterus galbula]

Yes and frankly with as many failed prospects as you guys have seen, I would've expected more skepticism/pessimism right here.

I don't mean that to be incendiary, but it's true. This is hardly the first time this has happened. Wieters is just the latest and highest-profile O's prospect to underwhelm.

I don't know if its a fair question, but what fanbases do you have in mind? I have a hard time believing that the majority of passionate fan(atics) for any team would have taken the measured approach to his development. I understand that we maybe should have been more pessimistic given our failures, particularly with regard to prospect development, but the hype was bought into and not created here.

A few examples (and its surely debatable that any of them had the national&saber hype that Wieters had) After Joba first came up do you think there was a great % of Yankee fans saying "this kid might not make it?" What about Heyward in Atlanta at the beginning of the year? Jay Bruce in Cinci? David Price in TB?

In short, who are the rational fanbases?

[Tony-OH]

Murton's smoking Markakis this year.

Murton: .336/.381/.498/.879

Markakis: .290/.370/.437/.806

Damn, you made me look him up!

Triple-A stats in thin air is not exactly the same as the MFL.

[wildcard]

How many backup catchers have a .650 OPS or higher?

There aren't 30 good starting catchers in baseball, yet alone enough for teams to find good backups.

I count about 1/3 of the league with backup catchers with more then a 700 OPS at the present time. I am sure at least half the league has backup catchers over 650 OPs

Over 700

Snyder Pit 746

Harrigan Cin 795

Inneta Col 746

J Molina Tor 732

Whiteside SF 735

Zaun Mil 742

Ross Alt 823

Varitek Bos 871

Castro CWS 827

Bard Sea 779

Thole Mets 754

If the O's wanted one for next season they could probably get one.

[Mackus]

I count about 1/3 of the league with backup catchers with more then a 700 OPS at the present time. I am sure at least half the league has backup catchers over 650 OPs

Over 700

Snyder Pit 746

Harrigan Cin 795

Inneta Col 746

J Molina Tor 732

Whiteside SF 735

Zaun Mil 742

Ross Alt 823

Varitek Bos 871

Castro CWS 827

Bard Sea 779

Thole Mets 754

If the O's wanted one for next season they could probably get one.

Backup catchers offensive performance is exactly like middle relievers pitching performance.

Guys that are mediocre can have good years when their year is only a few dozen innings or a couple hundred at bats. That doesn't mean they are likely to continue to be good or that they are the type of player that can repeat that type of performance every year.

If any of those guys were even remotely likely to be able to put up 700+ OPS consistently, they wouldn't be backups. You can get lucky with a backup, last year Chad Moeller had a .751 OPS for the Orioles, but you aren't getting someone who is even remotely expected to put up decent numbers. The "most likely" or 50th percentile projection for almost every backup catcher is probably in the mid 600s. Maybe a few teams can overpay and get a former starter that can't handle the grind of everyday to backup for a year or two before they retire or get lucky and have a young backup catcher on the rise for a year or two before he starts hitting just too damn good and ends up starting everyday, but that's about the only way to have someone you have anything even approaching a reasonable expectation of that type of offensive performance. And those guys are rare.

[MikeAD]

Backup catchers offensive performance is exactly like middle relievers pitching performance.

Guys that are mediocre can have good years when their year is only a few dozen innings or a couple hundred at bats. That doesn't mean they are likely to continue to be good or that they are the type of player that can repeat that type of performance every year.

If any of those guys were even remotely likely to be able to put up 700+ OPS consistently, they wouldn't be backups. You can get lucky with a backup, last year Chad Moeller had a .751 OPS for the Orioles, but you aren't getting someone who is even remotely expected to put up decent numbers. The "most likely" or 50th percentile projection for almost every backup catcher is probably in the mid 600s. Maybe a few teams can overpay and get a former starter that can't handle the grind of everyday to backup for a year or two before they retire or get lucky and have a young backup catcher on the rise for a year or two before he starts hitting just too damn good and ends up starting everyday, but that's about the only way to have someone you have anything even approaching a reasonable expectation of that type of offensive performance. And those guys are rare.

See also: Sal Fasano 2005 .785, a combined Robert Machado (.692) and Geronimo Gil (.613) in 2003 as other recent backups to not "do horrible."

[SteveA]

Solid but not amazing. When you're the #1 overall prospect, expectations are higher than that..

Why?

Look at the list of #1 overall picks the past 20 years. Exclude the last 5 as "too soon to tell". That leaves 15 players:

Brien Taylor, Phil Nevin, Alex Rodriguez, Paul Wilson, Darin Erstad, Kris Benson, Matt Anderson, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Bryan Bullington, Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Justin Upton.

I see one absolute HOFer in that group, and two or three others with an excellent shot at Cooperstown. I see five or 6 more that were, or look like they will be, "good" ML ballplayers for some period of time (guys who are All Stars in their best years, good enough to start in their average years, and have careers that last into their 30s as regulars). And I see 5 guys who have had negligible major league careers and are most likely busts.

So why is it that Delmon Young is such a disappointment? If this year is an indication of his career, he is already roughly in the middle group of "top prospects" career-wise.

This assumption that "top prospects" can't miss and are all superstars seems to permeate this board. Reality doesn't back that up, year after year.

[Sports Guy]

When Wieters was signed by Joe Jordan and before all the hype hit due to him tearing up the minor leagues, Jordan said he thought he was Jason Varitek. Most people thought that he under estimated him, but considering Varitek's initial struggles, and then eventual All-star success, it's way too early to count out Matt Wieters.

At Wieters current age of 24-years old, Varitek put up a .756 OPS in AA and threw out 29% of runners who attempted to steal.

Wieters has thrown out 30% (despite pitchers like Matusz who have serious struggled to keep runners from getting good jumps on them) in the major league and although his .693 OPS is a huge disappointment, his K rate has decreased and walk rate has improved since last year.

By all means Wieters bat has not been what his minor league numbers suggest they should be, but I think it's way too early to draw any conclusions from them. I still think Wieters is going to end up an All-Star catcher one day.

Unfortunately, we need him to be more than Varitek.