Seriously...what is up with Wieters?

[csgordos]

The second most positive thing I heard about Buck (#1 bringing a winning attitude and accountability) was said last night during the broadcast. They mentioned that he likes to sit in the clubhouse and talk to his players and the night before was the first time he had some time to talk at lenght to MW. Hopefully that talk will result in some minor or major changes on how MW starts to progress and the "new" coaching staff can help him to return to the level we all hoped and expected.

[Araqnid]

Ummm...how is a slight regression in power really bad?

From a peripherals stand point you can't hate what you see here. BABIP in 2009 was 356. His LD% is actually only 3% lower this year. In similar games he's got 9 more ground balls and 9 less line drives. I'd say this should probably drop his BABIP about 35 points (no science here just a guess). But his BABIP is actually 76 points less than last year or 280.

He has 2 less doubles the same number of homers and triples and 7% more of his balls put into play turn into outs than last year.

It's tough to say that slight regression is really bad given those. His K% is down. His BB% is up. If he keeps walking more and striking out less, I think that's progress that you don't see in his overall slash line.

Maybe this makes me an apologist. But I do think a bit of bad luck has played a part here.

This is off topic. But...he's seen 100 less pitches this year but has 9 more walks than last year. I see that being weird, but I'm not sure what it means. If anyone cares to add.

My point (and I consider myself an apologist here as well) is that the slight regression in power is somewhere where we thought and expected there would be a huge progression. Basically, it's not as bad as I think others make it out to be, but still pretty bad.

As for the pitches to walks thing, my guess is that he's putting more balls into play earlier in the count. This could also be supported by the fewer strikeouts. Basically, he's making more contact but worse contact. Not sure how I feel there...

[LookinUp]

Last yar, he played 4 months, showed good progress to end the year and end up with a 753 OPS...This year, he has sucked from day 1, outside of a good stretch in July.

...

Wieters was a premium level guy, who was an advanced college player that tore up the minors. He absolutely should be showing a lot more at this point in his career. He has regressed from last year...That's not a good sign.

Well, what is it a sign of? Is it a sign that he was never any good or is it a sign that he has regressed for some reason?

Since age isn't the reason, my best guess is something external has got him, such as:

1. wildcard's theory about playing time in one of the hottest summers to date.

2. injury

3. bad atmosphere

4. poor coaching/approach

5. focus on pitching rather than hitting

6. the league adjusted

The good news is all of the above (except if he has some crazy injury they're hiding) are correctable.

In Buck I trust.

[Sports Guy]

Its not only how many, its how many in a row.

If you want him to hit like to his potential, at this stage of his career. Under 100 and not more then three days in a row.

He in on a pace for 118 starts this year while catching some part of 125 games. And that is with being on the DL for 15 days which means he plays a lot of game in a row.

Mauer has averaged 111 games catching over 5 years. Wieters needs to grow into that workload if you want him to hit well.

This is misleading because Mauer has seen some DL time.

[Going Underground]

Wieters wasn't just top 100, though. He was top 1.

Not all of those players become All Stars, look at recent guys like Delmon Young and Jay Bruce who have been solid but not amazing, but the expectations are valid.

I guess it could either way. You have guys like Josh Hamilton,who finally made it.Also have guys like Patterson and Alex Gordon. Gordon could still become a good player but maybe like Wieters,he might only be a serviceable major leaguer and not a stud.

Joel Guzman was the fifth rated prospect in 2005.We should bring him up.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

[wildcard]

This is misleading because Mauer has seen some DL time.

So did Wieters.

[Dr. FLK]

Its Hot. 90-100 degrees. Humid. He has catching gear on. He squats for 9 innings and then does it again the next night. He takes foul ball off every part of his body. He is young. Has not been through it before. His legs have no spring in them because they needs rest. This is why most catchers are not hitters. Mauer is the exception.

If you want Wieters to hit to his potential, rest him more. Plain and simple.

So he wasn't good for the first 3 months because he needed experience and playing time. But, now he's had too much, so he's tired? Hasn't MY played baseball for a long time? It's hot in Atlanta, isn't it?

I'm not saying he'll never be good. He still has loads of promise. But, he's looked bad pretty much all year. He might be tired, but he wasn't doing anything moderately productive before he got worn out.

[MikeAD]

This is misleading because Mauer has seen some DL time.

A bit misleading, Mauer had only DHd 63 games coming into this season, out of 670 career games. Thats around 94%..over a full 162 game schedule thats 152 games or so behind the plate (obviously he will have days off, miss a game or two).

[Araqnid]

Also, his BABIP has regressed down to a normal level:

2009: .356

2010: .280

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4298&position=C

[DrungoHazewood]

Its not only how many, its how many in a row.

If you want him to hit like to his potential, at this stage of his career. Under 100 and not more then three days in a row.

He in on a pace for 118 starts this year while catching some part of 125 games. And that is with being on the DL for 15 days which means he plays a lot of game in a row.

Mauer has averaged 111 games catching over 5 years. Wieters needs to grow into that workload if you want him to hit well.

Does this have any basis in anything substantative, or are you just guessing? Mike Piazza caught almost every day, although I guess he had something of a break because two of his early seasons were shortened from the lockout/strike. Johnny Bench made his debut at 19, and caught 129-154 games for seven straight years. Pudge caught 140 games a year in his early 20s. Ted Simmons caught at least 130 games (and as many as 154) each year from age 21-25. Gary Carter had four straight years of at least 138 games caught in his early 20s. Jason Varitek's first full year in the majors he caught 140 games.

I don't discount the idea that Wieters is having difficulties because he's worn down and nursing minor injuries, but there's tons (and tons and tons) of precedence for young, good-hitting catchers to catch 130+ games a year for years on end as 20-somethings.

If you look at BA Top 100 over the years,most players do not make it. 60 to 65% percent have a cup of coffee. 25% became decent players and about 10% become elite players. That is why they are called prospects. Wieters is still a work in progress and could go either way.

How does that break down for top-5 picks? Or for the best available college hitters in each draft? I guarantee you the success rate is vastly higher.

[flashjordnk]

Wieters wasn't just top 100, though. He was top 1.

Not all of those players become All Stars, look at recent guys like Delmon Young and Jay Bruce who have been solid but not amazing, but the expectations are valid.

You mean the 316/347/511 Delmon Young for all of 2010?

Former first round pick turned bust turned...well above average center fielder? He's a guy growing into his power and finally cutting down his strike outs. I'd say he had some similar hype to Wieters.

He's a good representation of being a bit patient and letting a guy mature into what he's going to become. Neither Wieters nor Young are in their prime age yet. And Matt's a year behind Young in age. I'd say some patience is in order.

[Mackus]

You mean the 316/347/511 Delmon Young for all of 2010?

Former first round pick turned bust turned...well above average center fielder? He's a guy growing into his power and finally cutting down his strike outs. I'd say he had some similar hype to Wieters.

He's a good representation of being a bit patient and letting a guy mature into what he's going to become. Neither Wieters nor Young are in their prime age yet. And Matt's a year behind Young in age. I'd say some patience is in order.

Solid but not amazing. When you're the #1 overall prospect, expectations are higher than that.

Certainly these guys may take some time to develop into the players everyone hopes they can be. That doesn't mean we are wrong to be disappointed in his production so far or the numbers that Young and Bruce put up in the early stages of their career. They didn't meet expectations, even the more reasonable ones. That doesn't mean they are doomed to mediocrity for their career, just that things didn't progress as quickly and to as high of a level as you would expect from a #1 overall type of prospect.

[H0smash]

Also, his BABIP has regressed down to a normal level:

2009: .356

2010: .280

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4298&position=C

Meh. That's also partially due to his line drive rate decreasing. BABIP alone isn't enough, some hitters (with unusually high LD rates) will consistently have high BABIPs. They have a better ability to square up on the ball, so they hit more line drives which on average fall in for a base hit more than other batted balls.

[Dr. FLK]

Meh. That's also partially due to his line drive rate decreasing. BABIP alone isn't enough, some hitters (with unusually high LD rates) will consistently have high BABIPs. They have a better ability to square up on the ball, so they hit more line drives which on average fall in for a base hit more than other batted balls.

So he's hitting more GBs than LDs, so his LD% and subsequently BABIP have dropped. He's just not hitting the ball squarely at all. To me, it looks like his bat is slow. I don't know if he's having trouble picking up ML pitches or if his bat is slow from him being "worn out", but he does not look confident up there to me.

[H0smash]

You mean the 316/347/511 Delmon Young for all of 2010?

Former first round pick turned bust turned...well above average LEFT fielder? He's a guy growing into his power and finally cutting down his strike outs. I'd say he had some similar hype to Wieters.

He's a good representation of being a bit patient and letting a guy mature into what he's going to become. Neither Wieters nor Young are in their prime age yet. And Matt's a year behind Young in age. I'd say some patience is in order.

He plays left, and poorly at that. If he was a better defender then maybe he would be reaching what was expected of him when he was selected #1 overall. Unless he starts hitting 30 HRs a year, he will be somewhat of a disappointment at 1:1.

It's interesting that fangraphs just put out an article on Bruce, he's still young at 23, so he has plenty of time and is showing some signs of improvement.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2140&position=OF

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bruce-a-work-in-progress-at-the-plate/