Seriously...what is up with Wieters?

[Sports Guy]

But if Wieters hit for a OPS of 850-900 compared to under 700 now, it would be worth it.

Plus there is nothing to say the O's couldn't get a better backup catcher.

If you think he is only a sub 700 guy now, why would you think another 20 games off will increase his OPS 200 points?

[wildcard]

If you think he is only a sub 700 guy now, why would you think another 20 games off will increase his OPS 200 points?

Already asked and answered in this thread. Post #129

Its Hot. 90-100 degrees. Humid. He has catching gear on. He squats for 9 innings and then does it again the next night. He takes foul ball off every part of his body. He is young. Has not been through it before. His legs have no spring in them because they needs rest. This is why most catchers are not hitters. Mauer is the exception.

If you want Wieters to hit to his potential, rest him more. Plain and simple.

[Mackus]

Why?

Look at the list of #1 overall picks the past 20 years. Exclude the last 5 as "too soon to tell". That leaves 15 players:

Brien Taylor, Phil Nevin, Alex Rodriguez, Paul Wilson, Darin Erstad, Kris Benson, Matt Anderson, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Bryan Bullington, Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Justin Upton.

I see one absolute HOFer in that group, and two or three others with an excellent shot at Cooperstown. I see five or 6 more that were, or look like they will be, "good" ML ballplayers for some period of time (guys who are All Stars in their best years, good enough to start in their average years, and have careers that last into their 30s as regulars). And I see 5 guys who have had negligible major league careers and are most likely busts.

So why is it that Delmon Young is such a disappointment? If this year is an indication of his career, he is already roughly in the middle group of "top prospects" career-wise.

This assumption that "top prospects" can't miss and are all superstars seems to permeate this board. Reality doesn't back that up, year after year.

#1 overall prospect, not #1 overall pick.

#1 overall prospect is usually a guy with the pedigree of each year's #1 overall pick and then goes out and backs it up with big minor league production.

The expectations are rightfully higher for these guys. When they don't become All-Star level players, or at least solidly above average, they are disappointments. Not busts, but still not matching the expectations. When they don't perform at least average or so early on, even if they meet expectations or close to them later, they are considered as having taken longer than expected to develop. Still not busts, but just a bit delayed in terms of how long it took them to adjust.

Nobody is saying Wieters can't still have a fantastic career and meet those expectations, just that he hasn't adjusted to the league as well as almost everybody expected so far and that if he ends up only becoming an average starter at catcher, that he'll be a disappointment relative to the high, but reasonable, expectations that he had.

[Ohfan67]

I hear that. But rabid fandom and rational thinking need not be mutually exclusive.

And for the most part they have not been mutually exclusive among diehard fans. There was enough data, emphasis on data, to rationally expect/predict that Wieters would be an impact baseball player early in his career. The guy's performance so far has been a disappointment, no way to sugar coat that with excuses or by saying that this happens with prospects. His performance has been in the lower range of the predicted outcomes. Of course prospects, even super prospects, fail and Wieters may be an impact player as early as next year, blah, qualification, blah, but certainly it was rational to predict that he was going to hit better, significantly better than he has. You can find the most "rational" expert you can find and they will tell you that Wieters' performance has been disappointing. Doesn't mean he won't get better, but he sure doesn't look like one of the most talented young players in the game which is what all the data suggested he would be.

You also know that even a rational fan who thinks deeply about the game will let their exuberance get away from them every now and then. So in the predicted performance threads that are put together before the start of the season you will have sane people predicting what they hope will happen instead of what they would be willing to bet their mortgage on. I think to some extent you are mixing up the wildly exuberant posts with the posts that really discuss Wieters' performance. You seem to be talking about the willing to bet your mortgage estimate of performance where some posters are really talking about what they hope will happen which is clearly a best case scenario.

[Amerks]

Already asked and answered in this thread. Post #129

Its Hot. 90-100 degrees. Humid. He has catching gear on. He squats for 9 innings and then does it again the next night. He takes foul ball off every part of his body. He is young. Has not been through it before. His legs have no spring in them because they needs rest. This is why most catchers are not hitters. Mauer is the exception.

If you want Wieters to hit to his potential, rest him more. Plain and simple.

A young, supposedly stud player should be able to play almost everday out of the shoot in April, May, with a Sunday off day now and then. If he can't stand the heat, get out of the katchen....I know it's a difficult position with wear and tear over the season. But, I still think, early in his career, he should be able to play about 130 days behind the dish. If his hitting is crucial to the O's, then maybe firstbase should be considered. I have never seen a whole lot of spring in Wieter's legs. It seems to me he usually generates his bat swing/speed from his upper body, the legs have been secondary. If he is going to successful he has to put it together.

[section18]

I have read most of the comments so far but did skip some for time reasons so if someone else said what I am about to say please disregard.

We have been discussing this subject for awhile now and a number of us agree on the basic evaluation of Matt Wieters.

Some of my prior comments, from last season, have been missed I believe and they are meant to be constructive. I think he needs to use a lighter bat to help increase his bat speed. This is not rocket science. When I played baseball from little league to high school age every coach on every team told guys to use a lighter bat, get your bat off your shoulder a little more upright and out towards the plate so you can get around faster on the hard throwers and use your wrists more for speed. No long swings that look like you are using two arms side by side to open a door. His mental approach is lacking and he is not alone. Blame Crowley? Horrors! We can't do that. Why are guys swinging at the pitchers pitch with no strikes? 1 strike? Low pitches that are ground ball outs waiting to happen and often times double plays which let a pitcher off the hook and change the outcome of the game which I have witnessed too many times in person at OP and seen more times on TV. Why? Why? Why? A 1000 times why? Baseball smart and baseball stupid are not always tied to your education. Some doctors don't know how to put air in their tires. This is not meant as a put down of doctors and we know they are very smart people.

I was at the game last week at OP when Wieters hit into the DP against Floyd when we were trying to get his pitch count up and hopefully score a few runs against him and the White Sox with no outs. I believe it was a 1-0 count when he hit a perfect DP grounder to get Floyd off the hook and we went on to lose the game. This has happened before and will happen again. It was the play of the game IMO. I don't have Matt's numbers for hitting into DP's but I seem to remember most of them and most of his ground ball outs that look like he is a guy taking batting practice and swinging at everything trying to keep the ball from getting past him. He has what look to me like lazy at bats or...tired at bats. Does he need more rest than other catchers? The numbers say he should be able to give us more but his size I think will keep this from happening. We've discussed from day one how long he would be able to hold up behind the plate. How long? He didn't call the pitches at Georgia Tech. You would think college coaches would prep catchers for future ML careers and let them call pitches at least in their senior year. I think Buck should take this responsibility away from him the rest of the season and let him work on his hitting. MW can react in one of two ways. Sulk or jack his game up and show us what he is capable of doing and listen to the coaches. The big question is when will we see consistency when he is batting? He didn't come to us straight out of high school. He came from GT and he's supposed to be a bright guy.

[wildcard]

A young, supposedly stud player should be able to play almost everday out of the shoot in April, May, with a Sunday off day now and then. If he can't stand the heat, get out of the katchen....I know it's a difficult position with wear and tear over the season. But, I still think, early in his career, he should be able to play about 130 days behind the dish. If his hitting is crucial to the O's, then maybe firstbase should be considered. I have never seen a whole lot of spring in Wieter's legs. It seems to me he usually generates his bat swing/speed from his upper body, the legs have been secondary. If he is going to successful he has to put it together.

Wieters has already proven he can play almost everyday at the major league level and be above average defensively. That is not the problem. If you want the kind of offense that most people thought he was capable of he needs rest.

You say he seems to generate his bat speed with his upper body. That is exactly the problem. He does that because his legs are tired and the result is he is not hitting like he can. Get him the rest he needs and he will use his legs and he will hit better and for more power.

[brooksie05]

Wieters has already proven he can play almost everyday at the major league level and be above average defensively. That is not the problem. If you want the kind of offense that most people thought he was capable of he needs rest.

You say he seems to generate his bat speed with his upper body. That is exactly the problem. He does that because his legs are tired and the result is he is not hitting like he can. Get him the rest he needs and he will use his legs and he will hit better and for more power.

Or maybe he can use his millions and get a better off-season conditioning program?

[wildcard]

Or maybe he can use his millions and get a better off-season conditioning program?

i have no doubt that Matt in learning a lot about the grind of every day play and he will adjust his conditioning program. However, that does mean that is the only change that is needed. Giving him more rest in another way to allow him to hit to the best of his ability.

[brooksie05]

i have no doubt that Matt in learning a lot about the grind of every day play and he will adjust his conditioning program. However, that does mean that is the only change that is needed. Giving him more rest in another way to allow him to hit to the best of his ability.

No doubt that rest is always a good dose of medicine for a catcher with offensive expectations. However, MW has always struck me as someone who is a bit out of shape for the rigors of the day to day.

[Sports Guy]

i have no doubt that Matt in learning a lot about the grind of every day play and he will adjust his conditioning program. However, that does mean that is the only change that is needed. Giving him more rest in another way to allow him to hit to the best of his ability.

I am sorry but your whole line of thinking in this thread means 1 of 2 things:

1) You are way wrong.

2) Wieters is a big baby that doesn't deserve to be spoken as one of the best in the league.

You are advocating an approach for him that no other top catcher has...and your excuse that maybe he is different is worthless...and what I mean by that is if you are right about Wieters, then we don't have to worry about him being a top catcher..because he isn't one.

A top catcher should have to miss 50 games a year from behind the plate...None have ever required that.

He should be catching around 130 games a year and maybe DH another 5-10 games a year...That should be his schedule..if he is an everyday, top level catcher, he should easily be able to handle that. If he can't, then he is the most overrrated and overhyped player we have seen in a long time.

[davearm]

And for the most part they have not been mutually exclusive among diehard fans. There was enough data, emphasis on data, to rationally expect/predict that Wieters would be an impact baseball player early in his career. The guy's performance so far has been a disappointment, no way to sugar coat that with excuses or by saying that this happens with prospects. His performance has been in the lower range of the predicted outcomes. Of course prospects, even super prospects, fail and Wieters may be an impact player as early as next year, blah, qualification, blah, but certainly it was rational to predict that he was going to hit better, significantly better than he has. You can find the most "rational" expert you can find and they will tell you that Wieters' performance has been disappointing. Doesn't mean he won't get better, but he sure doesn't look like one of the most talented young players in the game which is what all the data suggested he would be.

You also know that even a rational fan who thinks deeply about the game will let their exuberance get away from them every now and then. So in the predicted performance threads that are put together before the start of the season you will have sane people predicting what they hope will happen instead of what they would be willing to bet their mortgage on. I think to some extent you are mixing up the wildly exuberant posts with the posts that really discuss Wieters' performance. You seem to be talking about the willing to bet your mortgage estimate of performance where some posters are really talking about what they hope will happen which is clearly a best case scenario.

I get what you're saying and I agree.

In your post you mentioned that Wieters' performance has been in the lower range of the predicted outcomes.

My point throughout this thread is that for some folks, Wieters' performance has been below the bottom of their own personal range of predicted outcomes -- that is, they felt this current scenario was so unlikely that it could be essentially disregarded. Thus my initial comment way back at post #3 of this thread, about expectations being out of control.

So in other words, the range of predicted outcomes you describe was shifted too far to the positive/optimistic from where it really should have been.

[Frobby]

I'm very disappointed with Wieters so far, but I'm taking the long view. He's still under team control for five seasons after this one, and if the talent is there, eventually it will shine through. I'm happy with his defense, and I have seen enough in 4-6 week bursts from Wieters to believe that the offensive player we thought he'd be is still in there. If Buck's as good as we think, he'll get Wieters to realize his potential eventually.

[Amerks]

I'm very disappointed with Wieters so far, but I'm taking the long view. He's still under team control for five seasons after this one, and if the talent is there, eventually it will shine through. I'm happy with his defense, and I have seen enough in 4-6 week bursts from Wieters to believe that the offensive player we thought he'd be is still in there. If Buck's as good as we think, he'll get Wieters to realize his potential eventually.

Just in time for him to become a FA and sign with the Yanks or Sox.

[wildcard]

I am sorry but your whole line of thinking in this thread means 1 of 2 things:

1) You are way wrong.

2) Wieters is a big baby that doesn't deserve to be spoken as one of the best in the league.

You are advocating an approach for him that no other top catcher has...and your excuse that maybe he is different is worthless...and what I mean by that is if you are right about Wieters, then we don't have to worry about him being a top catcher..because he isn't one.

A top catcher should have to miss 50 games a year from behind the plate...None have ever required that.

He should be catching around 130 games a year and maybe DH another 5-10 games a year...That should be his schedule..if he is an everyday, top level catcher, he should easily be able to handle that. If he can't, then he is the most overrrated and overhyped player we have seen in a long time.

By your definition Mauer is a failure. In 5 years in the majors he has started at catcher in 130 games once. He have averaged 111 games. He's on a pace to start 112 games at catcher his year. He has been the leagues MVP but he can't meet your standards. Do you think your standard might be a little extreme.

I said cut Wieters starts at catcher to 100 games. See what happens. If he hits well add 11 games the next year. That puts him right where Mauer is today. If he handles that and hits well then add 10 more games the next year. Let him DH 40 games next year if he hits well.

I think you need to rethink what your expectation are for an offensive catcher. They are way too high IMO.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01.shtml