So, maybe we shouldn't care about walks?

We know, at least, that there are synergistic effects in lineups. Certain batter events are worth more in different teams and lineups. So not every batter fits every team the same, even batters with the same overall offensive "value." Here's a little bit about why from Steve Staud:

"However, when it comes to particularly bad or good offenses, or to those with unusual breakdowns, wOBA will lose some of its efficacy. Why? There are synergistic effects in offenses to consider. First of all, if a team gets on base a lot, there will be more team plate appearances to go around, which of course gives its batters more chances to contribute. Second of all, if the team gets on base a lot, a batter's hits are generally worth more, because they'll tend to drive in more runs. And, of course, once the batter gets on base in such a team, it will be likelier that there will be a hit (or series of hits) to drive him in. The reverse of all three points is true in a team that rarely gets on base."

Basically, players with the same wOBA don't always have the same impact on a team. Staud goes on to say that to a low-walk team (the Royals had the worst walk rate in baseball last year), the home run is worth over ten times as much as a walk. But to a high-walk team (the A's led baseball in walk percentage last year), the home run is only worth five times as much as a walk. So Butler could be worth more to the Athletics than to the Royals just based on his distribution of offense alone.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-the-billy-butler-deal-may-not-be-totally-crazy/

That's a little hard to follow, but if I understand it correctly, the marginal value of a walk is higher on a team that already draws a lot of walks than it is on a low-walk team. So, if your team is already on the low end on walks, you are better off going for power than a high walk guy.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-the-billy-butler-deal-may-not-be-totally-crazy/

That's a little hard to follow, but if I understand it correctly, the marginal value of a walk is higher on a team that already draws a lot of walks than it is on a low-walk team. So, if your team is already on the low end on walks, you are better off going for power than a high walk guy.

What? They agree with me?

So Nick Markakis' OBP is even less valuable to this team than I thought?!!?!?!! Interesting...

What? They agree with me?

However, walks help in other areas. Base runners, especially fast ones, can distract a pitcher. Also, walks get the pitch count up some. And, if a pitcher is overwhelming, walks tend to break up his rhythm. Generally, it is not solo homers that beat a pitcher, but homers with base runners. A well balanced offense has a proper balance of both power and walks.

However, walks help in other areas. Base runners, especially fast ones, can distract a pitcher. Also, walks get the pitch count up some. And, if a pitcher is overwhelming, walks tend to break up his rhythm. Generally, it is not solo homers that beat a pitcher, but homers with base runners. A well balanced offense has a proper balance of both power and walks.

Evidence?

Is that something we want with how effective bullpens have become?

Evidence?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-the-billy-butler-deal-may-not-be-totally-crazy/

That's a little hard to follow, but if I understand it correctly, the marginal value of a walk is higher on a team that already draws a lot of walks than it is on a low-walk team. So, if your team is already on the low end on walks, you are better off going for power than a high walk guy.

No we should! Teams with high OBP puts a ton of pressure on the pitcher

No we should! Teams with high OBP puts a ton of pressure on the pitcher

Which pitcher?

However, walks help in other areas. Base runners, especially fast ones, can distract a pitcher. Also, walks get the pitch count up some. And, if a pitcher is overwhelming, walks tend to break up his rhythm. Generally, it is not solo homers that beat a pitcher, but homers with base runners. A well balanced offense has a proper balance of both power and walks.

No, actually none of that is supportable. Mostly, walks are just a sign of a pitcher beating himself - not the other way around.

Sounds like we're talking about marginal values. Assuming a team with similar woba's (other factors like speed etc being similar), and lineup optimized, should score a similar amount of runs. The higher marginal values for one event will be offset by others and overall run production is ultimately a function of the team as a whole. Not sure i see anything enlightening here.

Sounds like a fairly large stretch to rationalize Beane's rather questionable signing imo. I think the "DH WAR penalty" being to severe may hold some water though, particularly with DH's that provide positional flexibility (which Butler does not).

Sounds like we're talking about marginal values. Assuming a team with similar woba's (other factors like speed etc being similar), and lineup optimized, should score a similar amount of runs. The higher marginal values for one event will be offset by others and overall run production is ultimately a function of the team as a whole. Not sure i see anything enlightening here.

Sounds like a fairly large stretch to rationalize Beane's rather questionable signing imo. I think the "DH WAR penalty" being to severe may hold some water though, particularly with DH's that provide positional flexibility (which Butler does not).

DH's do suffer that penalty. But in Billy's case, being a DH increases his value.

DH's do suffer that penalty. But in Billy's case, being a DH increases his value.

Perhaps, I always thought the 17.5 runs was a big hit, just saying that a DH that can play the field reasonably well (even if below average) is likely more valuable to the team as a whole and may be one of the reasons teams have gone away from DH only types (Not talking about the obvious value in non-fielding DH's that can throw up a 900+ OPS).

Perhaps, I always thought the 17.5 runs was a big hit, just saying that a DH that can play the field reasonably well (even if below average) is likely more valuable to the team as a whole and may be one of the reasons teams have gone away from DH only types (Not talking about the obvious value in non-fielding DH's that can throw up a 900+ OPS).

Dayton Moore says he misread the market.

To me it sounds like adding one or two guys to the O's with high OBP wouldn't help all that much, but adding another SLG guy would. In order to benefit from walks you need a lot of guys who walk. The O's have maybe two. The A's have a lot of guys who walk so adding Butler helps them.

Here is a fangraphs article about batters' strike out and walk rates.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/rate-stats/

I di think that a batter's walk rate is quite important. Relevant excerpt:

Generally speaking, K% and BB% tell you something about a player’s plate discipline and contact skills. If a player routinely draws walks, they are likely very good at distinguishing between balls and strikes, which will not only lead to more times on base via a walk, but will also likely lead them to make better contact because they will be more likely to swing at pitches which they can drive. Not only does BB% provide a summary of how often a batter has walked, but it also provides some information about their underlying approach.

Weams, love you, brother, but man..... I've pitched backyard, sandlot, high school, college, (drafted by brewers, did not sign, so no pro) years pitching semi-pro and MSBL in league and national tournaments. Its like this at every level, perhaps the Majors are different...... but.....

I do not agree with you.

Hitters who don't bite at *your* pitch, or swing at your stuff *off* the plate, get in your head. You have to give in, you lose control, the hitter takes control. Your pitch count increases, you know which hitters who will chase and who fight you. Its not about me as a pitcher beating myself, I'm not perfect. I can only throw X pitch for strikes Y percentage of the time. If a hitter has an eye, knows i'm struggling with my off speed stuff, can sit back and wait for a fastball. Not a good situation to be in unless I'm Nolan Ryan reborn.

In leagues where you're going to see the same hitters over and over, (including the big leagues) there are no surprises, its all about patterns. You know the situations, you know the counts you get into. You know what they're expecting based on your stuff and your past experiences. If you don't have a wrinkle, a trick up your sleeve or a dominant pitch, the batter can beat you an uncomfortable number of times. And it sucks. I knew the number on the back of my center-fielders jersey better than my wife's birthday a couple of seasons.

I hate selective hitters. They get on base, and I have to pay attention to them. And they score runs, which upsets me. Non-selective are so much easier to get out. A steady diet of non-selective hitters that bite at breaking pitches off the plate, at low 2-1 changeups, and who swing first pitch fastball everytime, these fools I could make a living off of.