Just don't understand the optimism about Tillman

[Stotle]

Palmer said something interesting last night. He said Tillman's curveball was just like his and he could never get it over for strikes. He said for it to be effective he needed FB command. And that's what Tillman needs. I think Tillman is best served working on his mechanics and secondary pitches in Norfolk where he has less pressure. Clearly he doesn't have the make up of some of our more competitive SP and he needs to develop confidence before he gets thrown to the wolves. If Bergesen has a QS today I think that's what happens.

Amazing what psychologists can diagnose from a couch...

[Stotle]

Stotle, what would you be your approach to the rotation for the near future (now until the All-Star break)? Matusz is on schedule to pitch on the same day as Tillman and there are only, to my count, four more starts (after tonight) for the fifth starter.

Do you:

1) Keep Tillman in his spot and have Matusz be the fifth starter (meaning he won't pitch every fifth day and be in the bullpen)

2) Flip the two and have Tillman pitch inconsistantly

3) Insert Matusz, send Tillman down, have Bergesen be the fifth.

4) Start all six 6 guys, not worrying about schedule (sometimes the guy will be on 5 or 6 days rest)

5) Other...please explain.

Bergesen to the pen. I've always viewed him as a back-end type -- #4 to swingman, depending on how things break. He has done little to make me think otherwise. Great arm to have -- you have someone who will be able to step in and start whenever you need him, and could provide really valuable innings in the pen.

1. Guthrie

2. Matusz

3. Britton

4. Arrieta

5. Tillman

And I run those five out for the rest of the year, or until a trade/injury happens.

I really think BAL should stick with Tillman unless they are given no other choice (i.e. they make the appraisal that he simply is not going to accomplish what he needs to accomplish pitching against ML hitters). He needs to learn how to get out ML batters consistently. You do that by throwing to ML batters.

I'd also consider something more "outside the box" like moving him to the pen with scheduled game time each week and structured side sessions. But you need to make sure he's getting his 3-5 IP a week.

[Stotle]

The problem with SABRmetricians is that they often ignore what they see and prefer to read out of a stat book. What I see is a pitcher that has a straight, 86-90 mph fastball with poor command of his breaking pitches. Sometimes, stats lie. If Tilman doesn't get more movement and/or velocity on his fastball, he will never become a major league starter. I fail to see why we must be patient with him while he attempts to do this. The radar gun in AAA works just as well as it does in Camden yards.

With my eyes, Tillman is a much more interesting pitcher this year than he was last year. He is completely remaking his approach and it is fun to watch. You're right, there is more to it than improved peripherals. There is also more to it than velocity readings and how a particular pitch looks on a given night.

Go back and watch a start from 2009 and 2010. His approach is much more impressive right now, and even with the diminished velocity hitters have more trouble with his fastball now than they did in previous years. That's because his secondaries are more effective and it's harder for them to sit FB.\

I don't know -- I understand things could be better for Tillman, but personally I think the progress has been solid and I hope it continues throughout the season.

[backwardsk]

Bergesen to the pen. I've always viewed him as a back-end type -- #4 to swingman, depending on how things break. He has done little to make me think otherwise. Great arm to have -- you have someone who will be able to step in and start whenever you need him, and could provide really valuable innings in the pen.

1. Guthrie

2. Matusz

3. Britton

4. Arrieta

5. Tillman

And I run those five out for the rest of the year, or until a trade/injury happens.

I really think BAL should stick with Tillman unless they are given no other choice (i.e. they make the appraisal that he simply is not going to accomplish what he needs to accomplish pitching against ML hitters). He needs to learn how to get out ML batters consistently. You do that by throwing to ML batters.

I'd also consider something more "outside the box" like moving him to the pen with scheduled game time each week and structured side sessions. But you need to make sure he's getting his 3-5 IP a week.

So you can set the order of the rotation after the All-Star break. Is your last paragraph saying you'd pitch Tillman out of the pen in between the starts going into the break? Basically, you're picking option 2 provided that there's some structure to his bullpen use. The fifth starter will pitch June 7th, June 18th, July 2, July 7. I can see that approach. My preference would be to send him down, let Bergesen make those four starts, keep Tillman on a 5 day schedule and then do the rotation as you propose--maybe separate the lefties by flipping Britton and Arrieta.

[now]

The problem with SABRmetricians is that they often ignore what they see and prefer to read out of a stat book. What I see is a pitcher that has a straight, 86-90 mph fastball with poor command of his breaking pitches. Sometimes, stats lie. If Tilman doesn't get more movement and/or velocity on his fastball, he will never become a major league starter. I fail to see why we must be patient with him while he attempts to do this. The radar gun in AAA works just as well as it does in Camden yards.

There is room between your divisions of statheads vs. eye-watchers. I put a lot of stock in stats and I also trust what I see. What I see is a pitcher whose fastball is deceptive enough for most batters to miss good contact on so they foul it off instead and run up the pitch count; and whose breaking pitches have so much movement that it will take time to develop greater command and greater respect from the umpires. Sometimes, the eye-tests of different observers differ. I fail to see why so many are impatient with Tillman while he attempts to master his wide assortment of pitches, especially since his results to date are positive relative to his age and position in the rotation.

[BaltimoreTerp]

The problem with SABRmetricians is that they often ignore what they see and prefer to read out of a stat book. What I see is a pitcher that has a straight, 86-90 mph fastball with poor command of his breaking pitches. Sometimes, stats lie. If Tilman doesn't get more movement and/or velocity on his fastball, he will never become a major league starter. I fail to see why we must be patient with him while he attempts to do this. The radar gun in AAA works just as well as it does in Camden yards.

Eyes lie, too. No person who truly believes in the stats forgets that the stats can lie, but it seems like those who rely on their eyes forget all the time that eyes can lie.

[brianod]

Eyes lie, too. No person who truly believes in the stats forgets that the stats can lie, but it seems like those who rely on their eyes forget all the time that eyes can lie.

Very true. However, my complaint is double barreled. The stats show he's throwing high school fast, the eyes say, it's high school straight. The hesitancy displayed on the mound is usually a symptom of someone who doesn't trust his stuff. If I had an 86-90 mph straight fastball, I had better be Jamie Moyer. There are very few Jamie Moyers...

[BaltimoreTerp]

Very true. However, my complaint is double barreled. The stats show he's throwing high school fast, the eyes say, it's high school straight. The hesitancy displayed on the mound is usually a symptom of someone who doesn't trust his stuff. If I had an 86-90 mph straight fastball, I had better be Jamie Moyer. There are very few Jamie Moyers...

Well, if he's getting those batters out anyway, why can't he be Jamie Moyer?

[brianod]

Well, if he's getting those batters out anyway, why can't he be Jamie Moyer?

He's using 100 pitches to go 5 innings. Every outing is like playing dodge ball. One of his few quality starts was in Boston where he left 10 runners on through 5 innings and the O's lost a heartbreaking game. I honestly don't care strongly either way because right now, neither Bergesen or Tilman should be starting in the major leagues imo.

[Stotle]

Very true. However, my complaint is double barreled. The stats show he's throwing high school fast, the eyes say, it's high school straight. The hesitancy displayed on the mound is usually a symptom of someone who doesn't trust his stuff. If I had an 86-90 mph straight fastball, I had better be Jamie Moyer. There are very few Jamie Moyers...

He isn't 86-90. This is sensationalizing. His average fastball velo this year is between 89-90 somewhere. So he's closer to 88-91. There a plenty of people who are successful in that range, and there is also reason to be optimistic he will continue to add velocity as he works through his mechanical adjustments.

[The Rick]

He isn't 86-90. This is sensationalizing. His average fastball velo this year is between 89-90 somewhere. So he's closer to 88-91. There a plenty of people who are successful in that range, and there is also reason to be optimistic he will continue to add velocity as he works through his mechanical adjustments.

That's what I thought when Palmer made the comment last night that he got the feeling that Tillman changed velocity on almost every fastball he threw without trying to.

[Stotle]

That's what I thought when Palmer made the comment last night that he got the feeling that Tillman changed velocity on almost every fastball he threw without trying to.

I mean, we clearly know he has arm strength. He has shown it in the past. Unless there is some undisclosed injury, I'm not sure why anyone would assume he is an upper-80s pitcher from here on out. Maybe to keep command he ends up no higher than 90/92. He can still be a very good arm in that range with two good secondary offerings. There are just so many different directions Tillman could head. I can't believe so many people simply have their minds made up.

[bluedog]

With my eyes, Tillman is a much more interesting pitcher this year than he was last year. He is completely remaking his approach and it is fun to watch. You're right, there is more to it than improved peripherals. There is also more to it than velocity readings and how a particular pitch looks on a given night.

Do you also think trips to the dentist and enemas are fun? Because most of Tillman's starts have been the exact opposite of work fast, throw strikes, challenge hitters, which is what I (and I believe most other fans) enjoy watching. Tillman is Kevin Gregg as a starter right now.

[bluedog]

He's using 100 pitches to go 5 innings. Every outing is like playing dodge ball. One of his few quality starts was in Boston where he left 10 runners on through 5 innings and the O's lost a heartbreaking game. I honestly don't care strongly either way because right now, neither Bergesen or Tilman should be starting in the major leagues imo.

Just save your energy. The guys who are defending Tillman ignore things like getting through the 5th inning, inability to command his fastball, unwillingness to challenge hitters and three years of well below average stats as a starter because he MAY one day add 1 or 2 MPH to his 89 MPH fastball and suddenly develop the ability to throw the ball over the plate.

Clearly the entire organization should put all other goals (such as winning) on the back burner in order to focus all their energies on helping Tillman reach his limitless potential.

[bluedog]

Well, if he's getting those batters out anyway, why can't he be Jamie Moyer?

Because Jamie Moyer could consistently get his team into the 6th - 7th inning. If Tillman could do that, we wouldn't be having these discussions - he'd already be a reasonable option as a 5th starter.