Petition

[Sports Guy]

I kind of answered it in one of my posts.

First, DIPS is better at predicting an increased ERA than it is at predicting a decreased ERA.

Second, did DIPS predict an increase for the pitchers in question? Yes, it did correctly predict increased ERAs for Willis, Beckett, Patterson, Buehrle, and Johnson. So it was correct on 5 of the 7 mentioned. What's the problem?

The argument is that comparing DIPS to ERA is a good way of predicting an increased or decreased ERA the following season. Nothing more, nothing less. No one has ever said that a low DIPS one season will mean a low ERA the following season.

What about Peavy?

[mweb]

Sorry, but I think you are using it in completely the wrong manner.

When people talk about the predictive power of DIPS they are referring to DIPS% and not the actual number. Randy Johnson's DIPS ERA is telling us how he really pitched last year, it isn't telling us how he will pitch this year. Just as his ERA tells us how he pitched last year, and not how he will pitch next year. Being able to use a comparison of DIPS to ERA for predicting an increased or decreased ERA the following season is just an added bonus.

Ok, well then it seems like many are using it the wrong way since it's just been about DIPS in this thread, not DIPS %. And I don't see why it matters much which one you look at. All DIPS% does it tell the % above or below the actual ERA. I know it's telling us how he pitched last year, but that's used to help predict the future which has been Bryan's whole point on here about Chen. I'm saying it's not as good of a predictor as Bryan has made it out to be. And you basically said the same thing. I guess I'm just not following your point here.

[ledzepp8]

So, bryanman8, why the negative reputation on this posting? Or was it payback for when I gave you a negative reputation point when you stated "You're so freaking ignorant." in a posting, which was a clear violation of one of the rules on this board.

He did the same thing to me in this thread after I negative repped him for the same thing:

Buyers of used hip-hop CDs, help me!

I guess he just searched for one of our recent posts. Seems pretty juvenile to me. Me thinks someone needs to grow up.

[bryanman8]

He did the same thing to me in this thread after I negative repped him for the same thing:

Buyers of used hip-hop CDs, help me!

I guess he just searched for one of our recent posts. Seems pretty juvenile to me. Me thinks someone needs to grow up.

Me thinks you called me a ***** in your rep, which would be a bannable offense if I decided to show it to the mods. So maybe you should shut your mouth.

[bryanman8]

So, bryanman8, why the negative reputation on this posting? Or was it payback for when I gave you a negative reputation point when you stated "You're so freaking ignorant." in a posting, which was a clear violation of one of the rules on this board.

Hey rules expert,

Discussing rep points on the main message board before taking it up on AIM is also a violation of rules on this board.

Cry me a river.

[Sports Guy]

What about him?

He wasn't mentioned by Ty Cobb that I saw.

But since you asked. DIPS% predicted an increased ERA for Peavy in 2006. The last I checked, it was right.

BUt it predicted a 4.5 ERA?

1970, i think you are looking at it properly.

I think Bryan saw that Chen's DIP ERA was 5 last year and said he would have a 5 ERA this year. I think that is what people's issue with the argument is.

I like the idea that DIPS tells you that the you could see an increase(or decrease) in ERA and that's it. That is the way to use it and from there, how much or less will be seen.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, since we are talking about this....

Benson has a 5.62 DIPS ERA, which is worse among the top 40 qualifiers...Rlo's is 4.79.

This goes along with the idea(originally posted by RZNJ) that we should trade Benson and start Rlo next year.

[PaulFolk]

Hey rules expert,

Discussing rep points on the main message board before taking it up on AIM is also a violation of rules on this board.

Cry me a river.

You reeeeeally need to settle down. I don't know what's gotten into you in this thread, but it's not pretty.

[TyCobb]

Ok let me try and help with DISP and ERA.

Lets say Pitcher A has a ERA of 3 and a DISP of 4. His DISP tells us that for that season he should have pitched a 4.00 but his Defense helped him out. So Pitcher A is more likey next season to have a higher ERA.

Pitcher B has a ERA of 3.00 and a DISP of 2.00. His DISP tells us that he was better than his 3.00 ERA and that he has a good chance next season of having a better season than his 3.00 ERA.

[Fairfax Bird]

Lotta maturity being displayed in this thread.

Sam isn't a great manager, that is for certain. He has no clue how to set up a bullpen. Not sure if that is just his lack of options. It would be nice if he had some options so we could see if it is him or the general crappiness of the pen. I suspect a little bit of both.

[Fairfax Bird]

Ok let me try and help with DISP and ERA.

Lets say Pitcher A has a ERA of 3 and a DISP of 4. His DISP tells us that for that season he should have pitched a 4.00 but his Defense helped him out. So Pitcher A is more likey next season to have a higher ERA.

Pitcher B has a ERA of 3.00 and a DISP of 2.00. His DISP tells us that he was better than his 3.00 ERA and that he has a good chance next season of having a better season than his 3.00 ERA.

How does the stat account for the defense helping him out. I'm confused ... and I am not being a smart a$$.

Help.

[mweb]

What is used to help predict an increased or decreased ERA the following season is whether DIPS is above or below ERA. Nothing more, nothing less.

If you have an issue with what he's saying take it up with him.

I didn't just basically say the same thing. I stated earlier in this thread that DIPS is right at predicting an increase or decrease in ERA the following season about 65% of the time. That's pretty good to me.

I think people are making more of this than they need to be.

I did take it up with him since he's the one who has been making a big deal out of what the actual DIPS number is, not just whether it's above or below the ERA.

You did basically say the same thing, I haven't said DIPS is bad, all I meant by that is you don't think DIPS is nearly as full proof as Bryan has made it seem.

Can you explain to me why it doesn't matter what the actual DIPS is besides if it's above or below what the ERA was in terms of predicting future performance? It seems logical that a guy with a 1.02 DIPS% like Santana had would be a better bet to stay close to what he did the year before than a guy with a 1.31 like Chen had.

[TyCobb]

What is used to help predict an increased or decreased ERA the following season is whether DIPS is above or below ERA. Nothing more, nothing less.

If you have an issue with what he's saying take it up with him.

I didn't just basically say the same thing. I stated earlier in this thread that DIPS is right at predicting an increase or decrease in ERA the following season about 65% of the time. That's pretty good to me.

I think people are making more of this than they need to be.

Are you sure it is 65% because that seems to be really high. I still don't believe that DISP should be used as an indicater unless there are extremely far apart, over 1 points. I bet if you take the DISP where there is a 1 run difference in ERA, you would have a 95% predicter.

[bryanman8]

You reeeeeally need to settle down. I don't know what's gotten into you in this thread, but it's not pretty.

Why are you always signling me out? Isn't the rule generally to not discuss rep point matters on the main boards and to take it up on PM?

I got repped by 2 people because I called someone ignorant and made the mistake of throwing a 'freaking' in, for which I immediately apologized. One of them then proceeded to call me a ***** in his rep, and the other I would gladly explain to him over PM, while they're all talking to the board about how I'm so immature and such to do that while the adults are the ones typing to a kid that he's a ***** in a rep. LedZepp's conduct was despicable, not mine.

[TyCobb]

How does the stat account for the defense helping him out. I'm confused ... and I am not being a smart a$$.

Help.

Ok the formula weights Walks, HRs, IBB, and other Indepedent stats that the pitcher does. So basically they take the Team's defense out of the Pitchers ERA. So it will put the pitchers alone. I was wrong when I said defense helped him out. Does that help?