Jump to content



Recommended Posts

I understand what DIPS is telling us, all I'm saying is it would seem that a guy with a 1.02 DIPS% should be more likely to have an ERA similiar to his prior year than a guy with a 1.31 DIPS%. So I guess you're saying that's not the case.

I think that DIPS% realy is only useful has a indicator as to if a pitchers ERA was better, worse or about what it should have been. The reason it has some skill in predicting trends is that pitchers basically have small variations in talent from year to year so a high or low DIPS% in a fairly good percentage of the cases indicates the trend direction because the pitcher will regress to his talent level.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 184
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I didn't make a blanket statement either. My comments were made only in response to TyCobb, who is Joe Morgan without the understanding of fundamentals and the strategies of how the game is played, IMO.

Again, not the nicest comments in the world, but neither are his continuous insinuations that I don't watch baseball games. I wasn't talking about any poster but him.

Please stop the singling out of other posters, ok? When you stick to debating the facts you more than hold your own. When you stoop to this kind of stuff the whole thread starts into a death spiral.

Ty shouldn't make assumptions about who watches games and who doesn't, either. Let's stick to talking about baseball, ok?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

By your reasoning, no one on this message board that cares about baseball knows less about baseball than anyone.

Someone who completely distrusts stats entirely and still thinks BA is better than OBP and uses wins to evaluate pitchers and so on and so forth are TyCobb's list of statistical deficiencies is a perfect candidate to be the one who understands this day and age of baseball the least.

It may not be nice, but that doesn't make it untrue or ridiculous.

Your first statement makes no sense to me.

Do you really think that you have it all figured out already ? Do you really believe that you know more about baseball simply because you are up on the newest or latest versions of statistical analysis ?

You can use any and every stat you want, and at the end of the day- you know nothing more than anyone else about future performance of the players.None of us has a crystal ball.

Some of us- were reading Bill James 20-25 yrs ago (when he was publishing work written as a boiler room engineer), Elias Analyst, and other publications long before BP, THT, etc..... And some of us have followed BP from its start.

Some of us burned out on it (statistical analysis) years ago. One day your being told a stat is perfect. A year later its gone, ("oops") replaced by a new stat that really is perfect this time. It got hard to keep up, let alone put your trust into something that is obsoleted tomorrow.

Many stats formulae have changed or been discarded as the flaws are discovered, and that is good. Improvement is good. But, I just don't care to follow mundane statistical analysis on a daily basis. I have enough "work" to do each day at my job. :P

Speaking of DIPS- look at this revision done by McCracken and it is easy to see why many people's eyes glaze over.....


Especially, when there are counter-points that actually make sense, like-


More power to you and others that can and do dig deep into some of these stats- but that does not mean that you know more about baseball than I do. I see the value is some "new" stats- but I don't throw away the old ones. They are still good enough to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Is OBP better than BA ? Yes. Is ERA, W/L team dependant and a flawed way to judge a pitcher ? Yes. But, so what: Good pitchers will get their wins and have a good ERA, and bad pitchers won't, most of the time. Good hitters will also have good BA and pile up the RBI. So, "old" stats and new stats will still identify the best players.

You do know MUCH more than me about DIPS, WARP and BABIP and whatever new stat comes along, but I really doubt that you do know more about "baseball" than I do.

How is DIPS/BABIP/WARP going to help me teach "Baseball" to my little leaguers ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • Yeah, basically this, that Westburg's underlying numbers (EV, barrel %, xwOBA) seem to point at this being pretty real, or at least that there's nothing 'undeserved / lucky' about this hot streak, if it's just that. 
    • The problem with a Cowser/Kjerstad/Stowers/Bradfield outfield roster is there are no right handers to handle LHP. I don't think and completely left handed outfield is the destination for an organization the values versatility.
    • Looks maybe concussion related. 
    • How can you not be romantic about baseball? This seems slightly poetic. I enjoyed reading, and correlated your experience in the stands back to what I watch in Game 1 on MASN.  It was also pretty cool to hear Jim Palmer give you a shout out in Game 2 of the series on Live TV.
    • I am not worried.  It just doesn’t remotely meet the eye test.  He has been great in the field . I can think of at least 3 outstanding plays he has made and not any that I thought he should have gotten but didn’t. Meanwhile Holliday is 3 OAA and I can’t think of an outstanding play and can think of a number I thought he should have made. 
    • Nicely stated Roy. Every since I was 9 years old and saw the O's vs. the Tokyo Giants in Tokyo in 1971, I've been infected with the Orange/Black virus. There is no cure and I don't want one. You and I sat at the lunch table with Jim Palmer at the 1970 World Series Champs reunion, and its still one of my enduring baseball memories. You said I looked like Carlton Fisk! I was at all 3 games in this Angels series, right behind the O's dugout. I got to see all our boys, and just simply love to watch this team play. And in true baseball fashion, the one game on paper we should have dominated (GRod vs. 8+ ERA Channing), we end up down 7-0 and lose. But watching Gunnar's homers, his electric triple, and he made a fantastic play today on a ball that went under Westburg's glove, Adley do Adley things, Cowser, holy crap. Kimbrel v. Trout with bases loaded, bottom of 9th, 2 outs, down by 2? That was fun. Next game Trout bats leadoff and torches a GRod fastball for a homer to the opposite field.  An observation.... If you didn't know anything about the team, and you only watched game 1 batting practice, you'd think Cowser and O'Hearn were the studs of the team. Mountcastle was taking BP with the reserves and he put on a show as well.  Home after 3 straight days watching this O's team, so jealous of the Balt fans in Balt that get to see the team with regularity. It's a special bunch.
  • Popular Contributors

  • Create New...