Markakis Max Return

[brotherlo38]

Has anyone posted this yet?

I'm probably preaching to the choir but I don't know how anyone can not worry about Fielder's weight issues. We'd be entering into uncharted waters if we go beyond five years which is what it will probably take to get Fielder. Personally I feel like Fielder will be an albatross by 2015. I guess our GM could just stick him on waivers at that point and wait for another team to claim.

[Spoonless]

How can Markakis no longer be a premium player while Fielder can still be a premium player? They're the same age!

I think the point is that right now, in a vacuum, Fielder is still producing at the level of a "Premium Player" and by whatever arbitrary standard that sets, Markakis is not performing at that level.

It boils down to how you evaluate Markakis going forward. Some people think that this is what he will pretty much continue to be. Others think that he has the potential to rebound to hist past performance levels.

I certainly would not just let him go on a waiver claim just to dump his contract. I think that he's not going to be as bad going forward as he was to begin the season. I think he has some trade value, but I'm doubtful that the return would be big enough for me to pull the trigger. There are plenty of other contracts I'd rather dump before dropping Markakis.

[DrungoHazewood]

It's all about what the player is going to do forward not what they've done in the past.

Markakis is no longer a premium player while Fielder still is.

And you can get the type of production that Markakis will give you in RF via FA for a lot less than what you are paying him.

There is no FA that will give you production at 1B that Fielder can for less than what he's going to cost.

If you turn an opinion into a declarative statement it has to be true!

[DrungoHazewood]

Because it fits Trea's argument. It doesn't have to actually make any sense.

The problem is that Trea's arguments make some amount of sense. Fielder is playing very well, Nick isn't. But it's the extrapolation from there and the stretches of logic that defy reason. Nick really has been as valuable as Fielder over the last five years. Nick has a body type and profile that both anecdotally and historically ages much better than an overweight player with old-players skills.

If Trea wasn't so emphatic about his prognostication, and threw in a few more "I think this could be how things work out"s he'd have me. But when he comes right out and says "Fielder is great and will continue to be great, pay the man, Nick is done, end of story, put him on waivers" he loses me. And really gets on my nerves.

[brotherlo38]

The problem is that Trea's arguments make some amount of sense. Fielder is playing very well, Nick isn't. But it's the extrapolation from there and the stretches of logic that defy reason. Nick really has been as valuable as Fielder over the last five years. Nick has a body type and profile that both anecdotally and historically ages much better than an overweight player with old-players skills.

If Trea wasn't so emphatic about his prognostication, and threw in a few more "I think this could be how things work out"s he'd have me. But when he comes right out and says "Fielder is great and will continue to be great, pay the man, Nick is done, end of story, put him on waivers" he loses me. And really gets on my nerves.

Agreed.

[SrMeowMeow]

Who cares about Fielder, or JTrea's agenda, or whatever? It's practically trolling to even start that discussion.

Right now, I'm willing to give ZIPS an optimistic boost and project a .290/.360/.440 line for Markakis going forward. That seems generous. Anyone want to take the over on that for the rest of 2011 and all of 2012? Like, putting money on it?

[DrungoHazewood]

Who cares about Fielder, or JTrea's agenda, or whatever? It's practically trolling to even start that discussion.

Right now, I'm willing to give ZIPS an optimistic boost and project a .290/.360/.440 line for Markakis going forward. That seems generous. Anyone want to take the over on that for the rest of 2011 and all of 2012? Like, putting money on it?

Is there a point to you obsessing over Nick's supposedly terminal decline? What are you looking for, a group consensus that he's done and a petition for his release?

All I know is that last season he finished up with a nearly .900 OPS in September and had at least a .794 in five of six months. He had a 119 OPS+. He was a very good player. He's struggling through 2+ months of 2011, but the idea that he's in irreversible decline seems a little crazy. For all we know he's had a nagging injury that will clear up and he'll be back to hitting .300 with 45 doubles in 2012. Or maybe he just can't hit for any power anymore. Don't know, but I'm going to hope for the best. And no, I won't put money on anything, that's just silly.

[El Gordo]

Is there a point to you obsessing over Nick's supposedly terminal decline? What are you looking for, a group consensus that he's done and a petition for his release?

All I know is that last season he finished up with a nearly .900 OPS in September and had at least a .794 in five of six months. He had a 119 OPS+. He was a very good player. He's struggling through 2+ months of 2011, but the idea that he's in irreversible decline seems a little crazy. For all we know he's had a nagging injury that will clear up and he'll be back to hitting .300 with 45 doubles in 2012. Or maybe he just can't hit for any power anymore. Don't know, but I'm going to hope for the best. And no, I won't put money on anything, that's just silly.

I wouldn't say irreversible decline, but I do see some things that concern me. His drop in OPS, SLG over the past 3 years. his increase in IFFB, IFH, and decrease in HR/FB rate. And his weight loss. How confident are you of his putting up a .890+ OPS again? I would say that I have moved his mean OPS expectation from 850 to .800.

[SrMeowMeow]

Is there a point to you obsessing over Nick's supposedly terminal decline? What are you looking for, a group consensus that he's done and a petition for his release?

All I know is that last season he finished up with a nearly .900 OPS in September and had at least a .794 in five of six months. He had a 119 OPS+. He was a very good player. He's struggling through 2+ months of 2011, but the idea that he's in irreversible decline seems a little crazy. For all we know he's had a nagging injury that will clear up and he'll be back to hitting .300 with 45 doubles in 2012. Or maybe he just can't hit for any power anymore. Don't know, but I'm going to hope for the best. And no, I won't put money on anything, that's just silly.

I'm not trying to harp on it. I just wanted to get back to the discussion that, you know, the thread is about. Sorry for hijacking the hijack.

[TiredofLosing20]

I wouldn't say irreversible decline, but I do see some things that concern me. His drop in OPS, SLG over the past 3 years. his increase in IFFB, IFH, and decrease in HR/FB rate. And his weight loss. How confident are you of his putting up a .890+ OPS again? I would say that I have moved his mean OPS expectation from 850 to .800.

If I am reading it right, an .800 OPS would probably be about a OPS+ of 119. I think that is exactly what Markakis is. To get back to his OPS+ of 136 (which is what it was in 2008) he would need to be in the neighborhood of .850 OPS. The league has changed I think significantly since 2008. An .890 OPS in 2011 is vastly different than it was in 2008.

He appeared to have an off two months. Is it going to continue, well I don't know but to look at OPS and SLG and conclude that he is declining may be shortsighted.

[DrungoHazewood]

I wouldn't say irreversible decline, but I do see some things that concern me. His drop in OPS, SLG over the past 3 years. his increase in IFFB, IFH, and decrease in HR/FB rate. And his weight loss. How confident are you of his putting up a .890+ OPS again? I would say that I have moved his mean OPS expectation from 850 to .800.

I'm definitely concered about his decreasing power. I was a little concerned last year, and this year I almost have to assume he's hurt. I have no knowledge at all about any weight loss.

I'm hoping that this cyst in his wrist has gotten worse and that they'll remove it in the offseason and he'll go all Jose Bautista on us in 2012. Of course he might really be Ben Grieve.

[DrungoHazewood]

If I am reading it right, an .800 OPS would probably be about a OPS+ of 119. I think that is exactly what Markakis is. To get back to his OPS+ of 136 (which is what it was in 2008) he would need to be in the neighborhood of .850 OPS. The league has changed I think significantly since 2008. An .890 OPS in 2011 is vastly different than it was in 2008.

He appeared to have an off two months. Is it going to continue, well I don't know but to look at OPS and SLG and conclude that he is declining may be shortsighted.

I still have a nagging thought in my head that won't go away about why the league has seen run levels fall, and whether or not that root cause is linear in its application across all types of batters. In other words, maybe letting a bit of helium out of the ball somehow effects guys with mid-range power more than anyone else.

[Sports Guy]

I'm definitely concered about his decreasing power. I was a little concerned last year, and this year I almost have to assume he's hurt. I have no knowledge at all about any weight loss.

I'm hoping that this cyst in his wrist has gotten worse and that they'll remove it in the offseason and he'll go all Jose Bautista on us in 2012. Of course he might really be Ben Grieve.

Yea, after hearing about that, I wonder what that is doing to his power?

[El Gordo]

If I am reading it right, an .800 OPS would probably be about a OPS+ of 119. I think that is exactly what Markakis is. To get back to his OPS+ of 136 (which is what it was in 2008) he would need to be in the neighborhood of .850 OPS. The league has changed I think significantly since 2008. An .890 OPS in 2011 is vastly different than it was in 2008.

He appeared to have an off two months. Is it going to continue, well I don't know but to look at OPS and SLG and conclude that he is declining may be shortsighted.

I don't think you can just say he's had 2 bad months, there are three year trends that indicate something more than that. At this point maybe it rights itself, but the early season slimps have become more protracted and the power numbers are down each year since '08. I used to think Nick was the second coming of Stan Musial. Then I downgraded to Paul Oneill. Now I'm worried he really is Ben Grieve.

[weams]

Crowley is back to help him. He's suddenly fine.