How do you get better...

[NattieO'sHon]

Yes. IF the "cavalry" turns it around and overcomes the setbacks of this year and live up to their potential, I think a nucleus of Wieters/Hardy/Reynolds/Jones/Markakis (and Roberts if healthy) can be part of a winning team going forward.

If Matusz/Britton/Arrietta/Tillman are all Penn/Cabrera/Loewen/Ponson level busts, then I see no hope whatsoever for us to contend in the next four of five years. Period. No matter how many trades you make or deck chairs you choose to rearrange.

Amen bro! Amen! :clap3:

[RavensNTerps]

Not neccasarily..You don't know what we get in trades for these guys...And sure, maybe we don't get a CFer back but if we can fill a starting pitcher and first base hole with Jones than we are better off. But are they the solutions? Ok but this isn't happening. We all agree that they should be spending more on that stuff but its not happening.

I Agreed but you aren't getting a lot back. Bell and Johnson. Obviously yes.

Because where are we if we get a SP back for Jones? Exactly where we were when we traded for him to begin with. Up a SP and down a CF. It's just re-arranging the 4 chairs around a table that holds 10.

[mcneck]

Because where are we if we get a SP back for Jones? Exactly where we were when we traded for him to begin with. Up a SP and down a CF. It's just re-arranging the 4 chairs around a table that holds 10.

Except you get 2 or 3 pieces and save 10 mil plus. Multiply this for Hardy, Guthrie, Markakis, JJ, Koji and you get 8-12 pieces with probably half of them panning out and save 35- 40 million which you can use to replace the players you have traded or put into your Scouting/Rule 4/International signings(prob not) and you also get the young guys for 6+ years.

[NattieO'sHon]

They may eventually, if they start winning and selling tickets...But their payroll isn't quite 90 million this year and they are saying how far above it is from where they want it to be.

Use some common sense here...Don't go with hopes and dreams and what you think they should spend. Go with what has been spent for the last 12-15 years. Look at where they normally are...pay attention to who the owner is, etc...

What does common sense tell you about the payroll in the forseeable future?

The team will have four players under contract in 2012 for a total of $36 million. They are Nick, BRob, Reynolds and Gregg. You most expensive Arb Eligible guys are Guthrie, Luke and Jones. Guthrie and Luke will be in their final arbitration years. I expect them to offer Guthrie and decline on Luke. Guthrie gets $7mill on a 1 year deal. As for Jones, this is his 2nd year of arb and he will see a nice size raise. I would expect a contract extension to be signed similar to Nick. So if Guthrie gets $7mill and Jones gets $10 that puts us at $53Mill. So lets look at the rest of the position players on the roster. Matt is still under control and for at least 3 years so we got time to sign him and he will cost a couple million tops. As for SS, I would sign Hardy to a 3 year deal with an option for a 4th year. I would think a 3/21 gets it done. As for OF, we have two players signed and LF is the only question and I am thinking that Nolan gets the job unless he falls apart the second half. He will cost us nothing and that leaves us with a total payroll for our starting position players plus Gregg at $63 million. I do not include DH which I will bring up later.

So lets look at the bullpen, Gregg was part of the initial $36 million so he is not included. We have Koji with an option @ $3mill and the only other pitcher who will really cost us some money will be JJ. He may get a raise to $2 million. The rest of the bullpen is gone(Gonzo) or entering first years of abitration and not going to see much of a raise. So I am calculating that our payroll will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $70 Million.

Lets say we the payroll is approved to be increased 10% then that would leave us somewhere in the neighborhood of $100 Million. We would need to target a 1B, 3B or DH, 1 veteran starter and a couple arms in the bullpen. I would say our biggest target is Prince and if we can sign him our budget would be increased due to expected increase in ticket sales. So lets say they add another $5mill. That gives us $10mill or so if we sign Prince to a $25Mill per year deal. We get a veteran with a solid glove to play 3B and get an innings eater to add to the rotation. As for the bullpen, I am for sticking with the arms we have and maybe bring in a veteran lefty.

I did not spend a ton of time as you can tell but you get the idea.

[NattieO'sHon]

Umm, we're going to lose 90+ games with or without Guthrie so why not trade him if there's a market for him (i.e Alonso and Cozart) and start putting some younger pieces in place for 2012 and beyond. If Hardy isn't extended, the same would apply for him IMO.

We have nobody to replace his innings next year and he still has one year left of arbitration. Bad move to trade him now.

[NattieO'sHon]

Except you get 2 or 3 pieces and save 10 mil plus. Multiply this for Hardy, Guthrie, Markakis, JJ, Koji and you get 8-12 pieces with probably half of them panning out and save 35- 40 million which you can use to replace the players you have traded or put into your Scouting/Rule 4/International signings(prob not) and you also get the young guys for 6+ years.

Who plays CF, SS, RF next year??

[mcneck]

Who plays CF' date=' SS, RF next year??[/quote']

Well lets see.. you get back 8-12 players and have 40 million to spend plus Pie and Reimold are still on the roster. I'm sure they can find somebody. Also please note "save 35- 40 million which you can use to replace the players you have traded"

If your rebuilding it doesn't matter.The main goal should be to flood the system with good young cheap talent and then spend when you either are able to fill a need or when the talent matures and spending will will help you compete.

BTW I know the young pitchers have sucked this year but I fully expect 2 or 3 of them to get straightened out and be contributors at a minimum and next year you have Bundy and Klein knocking on the door with the younger Bundy and Bridwell along with a few of the pitchers from this years draft a step behind.

[mcneck]

If it were allowed we could really kick butt following the Marlins or Rays model with the extra money we have.

[RavensNTerps]

If it were allowed we could really kick butt following the Marlins or Rays model with the extra money we have.

Yes but both those teams do an immensley better job at developing young talent. Look at David Price and then look at Brian Matusz. Frustrating, isn't it?

[RavensNTerps]

Except you get 2 or 3 pieces and save 10 mil plus. Multiply this for Hardy, Guthrie, Markakis, JJ, Koji and you get 8-12 pieces with probably half of them panning out and save 35- 40 million which you can use to replace the players you have traded or put into your Scouting/Rule 4/International signings(prob not) and you also get the young guys for 6+ years.

So you're talking about trading 6 players and assuming that best case scenario 6 players you get in return pan out. Exactly back to square one with reshuffled strengths and weaknesses.

I don't disagree with the general concept but it's not as easy as all these stupid trade threads make it out to be, either.

[The Maestro]

We have nobody to replace his innings next year and he still has one year left of arbitration. Bad move to trade him now.

I guess we'll agree to diasagree on this topic. I prefer to trade players when they actually still have value and potentially can address other positions. The money they'd save could be spent filling his spot thru free agency next year. They do have some other money coming off the books at the end of the year.