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Thus the problem.

You aren't looking big picture.

The Orioles payroll is close to 90 million this year and they have publicly said that is much higher than they wanted to go. If you are paying 40 million of that payroll to JJ hardy, Nick, Jones and BRob, how do you really expect to change this team around? Too much money is tied in good but not great talent.

On top of that, many want to keep guys like Johnson, Koji, Guthrie, etc...All of those guys will be expensive and we haven't even talked about money to Gregg and when the deferred Vlad money gets paid.

We are going to have a ton of money tied up in 10 or less players and have to fill out the rest of the team with 20-30 million...How do you expect them to do that? Oh and btw, we have zero depth in the minor leagues and basically have no help coming for at least 2 years, if ever.

Good point, hadn't thought about this side of it. If they truly want to be spending less than $90 million I think we are in deep [stuff], since it's obvious they also don't want to trade any of these "fan favorites."

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Thus the problem.

You aren't looking big picture.

The Orioles payroll is close to 90 million this year and they have publicly said that is much higher than they wanted to go. If you are paying 40 million of that payroll to JJ hardy, Nick, Jones and BRob, how do you really expect to change this team around? Too much money is tied in good but not great talent.

On top of that, many want to keep guys like Johnson, Koji, Guthrie, etc...All of those guys will be expensive and we haven't even talked about money to Gregg and when the deferred Vlad money gets paid.

We are going to have a ton of money tied up in 10 or less players and have to fill out the rest of the team with 20-30 million...How do you expect them to do that? Oh and btw, we have zero depth in the minor leagues and basically have no help coming for at least 2 years, if ever.

You trade and develop. Period.

There's nearly 22 million tied up with Gonzo, Vlad, and Lee that's free in 2012. Not to mention other things.

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Good point, hadn't thought about this side of it. If they truly want to be spending less than $90 million I think we are in deep [stuff], since it's obvious they also don't want to trade any of these "fan favorites."

You can't trade BRob. He has no value right now.

Nick is tradeable, but his value is still low due to his contract and his power struggles.

The thing is, who is saying these guys are untouchable? At least..who in the FO?

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You can't trade BRob. He has no value right now.

Nick is tradeable, but his value is still low due to his contract and his power struggles.

The thing is, who is saying these guys are untouchable? At least..who in the FO?

No one is; I just don't see them trading Guthrie, Jones, JJ, etc, based on what we've done the entire time MacPhail has been here. It's obvious they don't want to trade Hardy. They waited on Tejada until after his value had dropped and they took that risk with Bedard as well, though in that case it paid off.

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Thus the problem.

You aren't looking big picture.

The Orioles payroll is close to 90 million this year and they have publicly said that is much higher than they wanted to go. If you are paying 40 million of that payroll to JJ hardy, Nick, Jones and BRob, how do you really expect to change this team around? Too much money is tied in good but not great talent.

On top of that, many want to keep guys like Johnson, Koji, Guthrie, etc...All of those guys will be expensive and we haven't even talked about money to Gregg and when the deferred Vlad money gets paid.

We are going to have a ton of money tied up in 10 or less players and have to fill out the rest of the team with 20-30 million...How do you expect them to do that? Oh and btw, we have zero depth in the minor leagues and basically have no help coming for at least 2 years, if ever.

Johnson will not be expensive next year. Probably less then 2M.

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No one is; I just don't see them trading Guthrie, Jones, JJ, etc, based on what we've done the entire time MacPhail has been here. It's obvious they don't want to trade Hardy. They waited on Tejada until after his value had dropped and they took that risk with Bedard as well, though in that case it paid off.

Right...Their actions dictate what they are likely to move.

The team is struggling right now...Does anyone really think they will trade Koji and Jim Johnson and take their 2 reliable relievers from the pen?

I think they will definitely look to trade Vlad but beyond that, I am not sure I see them moving anyone.

I do think they will explore trading Guthrie but I am not sure they will get an offer for him that AM deems good enough to trade him.

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Sign Fielder, our young pitchers exceed expectations next year, brob goes injury free, all our players do as expected or better, Tex and gonzo get injured = Os win the AL east next season.

If the O's sign Fielder,how do they get the other parts? They need some more pieces. They are not going to able to get a TOR starter plus Fielder for the payroll they are talking about. You can't trade Pie and get anything good for him. We would need to trade the Jones and Wieters to get anything good back. I am not sure if any of the O's starters would give you back the return you want.

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If the O's sign Fielder,how do they get the other parts? They need some more pieces. They are not going to able to get a TOR starter plus Fielder for the payroll they are talking about. You can't trade Pie and get anything good for him. We would need to trade the Jones and Wieters to get anything good back. I am not sure if any of the O's starters would give you back the return you want.

You trade him at deadline. Duh! ;)

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Trading Scott, Koji, JJ, Vlad, and DLee is fine, but don't expect much back that is ML ready beyond some bullpen arms. Unless you package some of them along with a major piece like Jones, Hardy, Reynolds, or Guthrie, you wont get any of the ML ready SP, 1B, SS, 3B, LF we need.

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I think we could replay the season with the same players and be .500 or better. A team's record is not a great indication of their true talent.

I totally agree with you, especially if BMat is healthy when they replay it.

But that still doesn't address the long term issues either.

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I have to say that, although I understand the business case for trading Nick, it would bum me out if we did so. I've followed the guy's career since the day we drafted him, and he's been one of the few prospects we've had who actually became a good major leaguer. So, if he is traded, I will understand why, but I'll be unhappy on an emotional level.

For me, in the 45 years I've been following the team, there were 4 players I really latched onto -- Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Mike Mussina and Nick Markakis. I don't mean that there weren't many other players I liked -- I mean these guys were the ones whose names I looked for first in the box score. And in the case of Frank, Eddie and Moose, my interest in them continued even in the years after they left the Orioles and I always lamented their departures, far above all others. And even though Nick isn't as good a player as the other three, that's the status he holds for me. I will always be a huge Nick Markakis fan, no matter where he plays.

Do we really just root for laundry?

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we don't have enough organizational depth to make this a valid point. We only go one-quality deep at almost all positions. So trading - say - Nick Markakis for a quality SP prospect or two shores up one hole but creates another. We don't have the luxury to plug players in with the possible exception of a Reimold/Scott thing. I don't see how we can trade Guthrie right now.

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