Everyday Players

[BaltimoreTerp]

We shall see. But I cannot find a study that says the majority of MLB pitchers who have started games improve throughout their careers. I can't find one.

You also can't find a valid one that says they don't.

[UnashamedRiver]

You also can't find a valid one that says they don't.

"That’s part of what the expression means – but the other part is that when you do have an elite pitching prospect, a Mark Prior in the minors or Stephen Strasburg last May or whatnot, he’s not really a pitching prospect – he’s a major-league pitcher just biding his time in the minors. Pitchers, unlike hitters, can hit the ground running. And whereas most hitters improve until the age of 27 or so, the age curve for pitchers is quite variable. Some pitchers don’t hit their stride until their 30s, but far more pitchers peak in their early 20s – and many pitchers are as good at the age of 22 or 23 as they’ll ever be. If you hold those guys in the minors for too long, you run the risk of missing their peak entirely."

This is another one.

[DrOrioles90210]

We shall see. But I cannot find a study that says the majority of MLB pitchers who have started games improve throughout their careers. I can't find one.

That's because no one has ever had to do that study. Almost every pitcher who has had a major league career more than 3 or 4 years did not have their best year their rookie season.

[BaltimoreTerp]

"That’s part of what the expression means – but the other part is that when you do have an elite pitching prospect, a Mark Prior in the minors or Stephen Strasburg last May or whatnot, he’s not really a pitching prospect – he’s a major-league pitcher just biding his time in the minors. Pitchers, unlike hitters, can hit the ground running. And whereas most hitters improve until the age of 27 or so, the age curve for pitchers is quite variable. Some pitchers don’t hit their stride until their 30s, but far more pitchers peak in their early 20s – and many pitchers are as good at the age of 22 or 23 as they’ll ever be. If you hold those guys in the minors for too long, you run the risk of missing their peak entirely."

This is another one.

A random, unsourced paragraph equals...what exactly?

[DrOrioles90210]

"That’s part of what the expression means – but the other part is that when you do have an elite pitching prospect, a Mark Prior in the minors or Stephen Strasburg last May or whatnot, he’s not really a pitching prospect – he’s a major-league pitcher just biding his time in the minors. Pitchers, unlike hitters, can hit the ground running. And whereas most hitters improve until the age of 27 or so, the age curve for pitchers is quite variable. Some pitchers don’t hit their stride until their 30s, but far more pitchers peak in their early 20s – and many pitchers are as good at the age of 22 or 23 as they’ll ever be. If you hold those guys in the minors for too long, you run the risk of missing their peak entirely."

This is another one.

Where's this? Who is this?

[UnashamedRiver]

Where's this? Who is this?

This is a writer for the Kansas City Royals. I don't know his credibility, but he is one of the many guys who knows this to be true. Just by looking at the studies.

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2011/05/eric-hosmer-and-gathering-horde.html

[DrOrioles90210]

This is a writer for the Kansas City Royals. I don't know his credibility, but he is one of the many guys who knows this to be true. Just by looking at the studies.

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2011/05/eric-hosmer-and-gathering-horde.html

This guy is a dermatologist with a blog who only gives his interpretation of what someone else said. Are you really convinced by this?

[UnashamedRiver]

This guy is a dermatologist with a blog who only gives his interpretation of what someone else said. Are you really convinced by this?

No I'm not, but it's just common knowledge. You don't have to quote something if it's common knowledge. A lot of people in baseball know mostt pitchers don't improve. Peter Gammons said this. Curt Schilling said Strasburg would immediately be the best pitcher in baseball and his k/9 was like 12 something.

[BaltimoreTerp]

This guy is a dermatologist with a blog who only gives his interpretation of what someone else said. Are you really convinced by this?

He's a founding writer for Baseball Prospectus. He's probably the most respected individual Royals blogger, has his own radio show in KC and a podcast with Joe Sheehan. That's the best statement he's brought forth so far. Really needs to learn how to provide his evidence before his credibility is questioned, though.

(Also, Rany went to Hopkins for medical school so he's got a nice connection to the mid-90s Orioles )

[BaltimoreTerp]

No I'm not, but it's just common knowledge. You don't have to quote something if it's common knowledge. A lot of people in baseball know mostt pitchers don't improve. Peter Gammons said this. Curt Schilling said Strasburg would immediately be the best pitcher in baseball and his k/9 was like 12 something.

1. It isn't common knowledge. Don't even try.

2. Another unsourced statement, this time from Gammons.

3. Another irrelevant comparison (especially for someone whining about "outliers" earlier).

[DrOrioles90210]

No I'm not, but it's just common knowledge. You don't have to quote something if it's common knowledge. A lot of people in baseball know mostt pitchers don't improve. Peter Gammons said this. Curt Schilling said Strasburg would immediately be the best pitcher in baseball and his k/9 was like 12 something.

No one (other than you and the two guys you quoted) think this is common knowledge. Most people think this is wrong. Schilling's comment doesn't say anything about whether Strasburg would improve or not.

[UnashamedRiver]

He's a founding writer for Baseball Prospectus. He's probably the most respected individual Royals blogger, has his own radio show in KC and a podcast with Joe Sheehan. That's the best statement he's brought forth so far. Really needs to learn how to provide his evidence before his credibility is questioned, though.

(Also, Rany went to Hopkins for medical school so he's got a nice connection to the mid-90s Orioles )

Is this seriousness or sarcasm? Lol.

[Genya]

Don't take this the wrong way, but whatever. The point I intended to originally make is that the average pitcher gets worse every year they are in the MLB or after around the age of 24-25. It's not that hard to understand and there have been studies to prove what I'm saying. The reason I said this is because I noticed our own starting pitchers have declined since their rookie year and that we shouldn't expect improvement. Again don't take this the wrong way, but it is not a debate. The average pitcher gets worse every year.

Here's an actual scientific study by a published Baseball author showing that good pitchers peak at 28-29, with actual regressions (the ERA+ he uses in not ERA+ as we know it, he defines it):

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/03/age-and-pitching-performance/

He published a similar article in the Journal of Sports Sciences also showing the 28-29 age as peak age:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02640410802691348

[sangar]

Here's an actual scientific study by a published Baseball author showing that good pitchers peak at 28-29, with actual regressions (the ERA+ he uses in not ERA+ as we know it, he defines it):

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/03/age-and-pitching-performance/

He published a similar article in the Journal of Sports Sciences also showing the 28-29 age as peak age:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02640410802691348

So far he has ignored all evidence presented that disagrees with his theory. With this, I'm betting he simply disappears from the thread. Thanks for looking these up.

[Frobby]

So far he has ignored all evidence presented that disagrees with his theory. With this, I'm betting he simply disappears from the thread. Thanks for looking these up.

But that doesn't disagree with his theory at all. He made it very clear he was talking about the average pitcher, not good pitchers.

I think he exaggerated his point just a bit, and maybe was a bit rude in the way he presented his position in his first few posts. But that doesn't change his key point -- the vast majority of pitchers who debut in the major leagues don't make it. Most of them don't get any better, and when management sees that, they are dismissed in favor of the next crop. The guys who are good at 28-29 are a minor subset of all pitchers who were given an opportunity to start at ages 22-25. So, it's perfectly reasonable to question whether the Orioles' young pitchers are going to improve with experience. Chances are good that some of them won't.